ATTRIBUTING AND VERIFYING EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS AND AEROSOL EMISSIONS AND RECONCILIATION WITH STATISTICAL BOTTOM UP ESTIMATES

Projektinformationen

AVENGERS

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 101081322

DOI

10.3030/101081322

EK-Unterschriftsdatum 4 Oktober 2022

Startdatum 1 Januar 2023

Enddatum 31 Dezember 2026

Finanziert unter

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Gesamtkosten

€ 5 499 941,75

EU-Beitrag

€ 5 499 941,00

Koordiniert durch

LUNDS UNIVERSITET
Sweden

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - AVENGERS (ATTRIBUTING AND VERIFYING EUROPEAN AND NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS AND AEROSOL EMISSIONS AND RECONCILIATION WITH STATISTICAL BOTTOM UP ESTIMATES)

Berichtszeitraum: 2024-07-01 bis 2025-12-31

Zusammenfassung vom Kontext und den Gesamtzielen des Projekts

The reporting of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories is a crucial element in the 2015 Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, the reported emissions carry substantial uncertainties and lack independent verification. The AVENGERS (Attributing and Verifying European and National Greenhouse gas and aerosol Emissions and Reconciliation with Statistical bottom-up estimates) project brings together European experts to establish top-down techniques in support of the verification of national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. AVENGERS will make use of atmospheric inverse modelling and data assimilation, remote sensing, environmental monitoring and observation, terrestrial ecosystem modelling, policy and stakeholder interaction together with national inventory compilers in order to improve the methods and approaches currently used in GHG emission inventory reporting. AVENGERS will advance the top-down approach for quantifying GHG and aerosol emissions by adding additional tracers (e.g. radiocarbon, co-emitted species, black carbon), as well as reconcile and integrate approaches into a joint bottom-up and top-down framework. Based on the reconciliation, AVENGERS will prepare good-practice guidelines for use of atmospheric inverse models as well as develop a Flexible Inversion Tool for Inventory Compilers (FIT-IC). Knowledge and outcomes are provided for use to policy and societal stakeholders and replicable outside of the chosen target areas of the project (Europe with a focus on Germany, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, and The Netherlands). The uniqueness of the consortium lies in the combination of the required scientific expertise with full partner presence of official reporting agencies from exemplary EU countries facilitating the transfer of knowledge to key stakeholders (the national reporting agencies and international organisations such as UNFCCC, WMO) in the field.

Arbeit, die ab Beginn des Projekts bis zum Ende des durch den Bericht erfassten Berichtszeitraums geleistet wurde, und die wichtigsten bis dahin erzielten Ergebnisse

The work performed through AVENGERS leads to a better understanding of how the different communities, including atmospheric scientists, process-based land surface modelers and inventory compilers, can work more effectively together. The main achievements of AVENGERS so far include:
- An outline for good practice guidelines in collaboration with EYE-CLIMA on how top-down emission estimation systems can support greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories and the Global Stocktake that is based on work performed for the WMO IG3IS;
- A prototype Flexible Inversion Tool for Inventory Compiler (FIT-IC) for demonstrating the strengths and weaknesses in estimating GHG emissions developed together with national inventory compilers including training events;
- Observation-based estimates of GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O) and aerosol emissions and their uncertainties for European countries that will be refined for specific use cases that have been defined in RP1;
- Estimates of emission factors used in the inventories, based on process modelling using ORCHIDEE and LPJ-GUESS for Sweden and Italy for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector; and
- Evaluation of future observing systems (both satellite, CO2M, and in-situ including radiocarbon) in terms of their potential to further reduce uncertainties in the estimated GHG and corresponding guidelines on the design of the networks.

Fortschritte, die über den aktuellen Stand der Technik hinausgehen und voraussichtliche potenzielle Auswirkungen (einschließlich der bis dato erzielten sozioökonomischen Auswirkungen und weiter gefassten gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen des Projekts)

AVENGERS goes beyond state-of-the-art concerning methodological/technological developments, system integration and networks by tackling the research problems in close collaboration between atmospheric/ecosystem scientists and national GHG inventory agencies. Progress Beyond the State-Of-The-Art (PBSOTA) has been achieved so far by AVENGERS:
- Advances in data assimilation/inverse modelling by including new tracers in atmospheric inversions (such as radiocarbon and methane isotopes) for improved estimation of anthropogenic emissions to reduce the problem of under constrained inversions for source attribution,
- Improved prior emissions fields for inverse modelling systems based on reported emissions at high spatial resolution for all three major GHG and aerosols (Black Carbon),
- Improved inverse estimates of BC emissions at high resolution over the European domain including calculation of radiative forcings and potential temperature impacts,
- Process attribution and emissions factor estimation using two second generation dynamic vegetation models for quantifying emissions from forest management (CO2) and agricultural practices (N2O),
- Assessment of the potential of observational network extensions (future satellite missions such as CO2M as well as in-situ extension with high-frequency radiocarbon sampling) through observation system simulations experiments and Quantitative Network Design studies.