Assessing Climate Change Risk in EUrope

Informazioni relative al progetto

ACCREU

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101081358

DOI

10.3030/101081358

Data della firma CE 3 Maggio 2023

Data di avvio 1 Giugno 2023

Data di completamento 30 Novembre 2026

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 4 992 062,50

Contributo UE

€ 4 992 062,50

Coordinato da

FONDAZIONE CENTRO EURO-MEDITERRANEOSUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI
Italy

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ACCREU (Assessing Climate Change Risk in EUrope)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-12-01 al 2025-11-30

Sintesi del contesto e degli obiettivi generali del progetto

ACCREU project provides a comprehensive, integrated, co-created, socio-economic evaluation of future climate risk under different adaptation and mitigation scenarios, across European countries, sectors, households, and business types. During the first reporting period, it has started to deliver key innovative contributions in relation to non-market impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and health, and to the interactions between climate change and air quality through the advancements of models and methods for climate risk assessment and integrated adaptation decision-making. Novel empirical investigations have assessed the impacts of extremes on wellbeing and poverty, and models to look at the broader distributional, financial, and fiscal implications of climate impacts and adaptation have been set up.
At societal/economic level, ACCREU is engaging with stakeholders representing different adaptation decision types to co-design practical solutions to successfully mainstream climate resilience and adaptation into decision-making processes.
ACCREU’s case studies have started to examine adaptation decisions in the thematic areas of: financial risk for central banks, ecosystems and nature-based solutions, land use and food systems, water management, protection and management of critical infrastructures including transport and supply chains, health, and human well-being, and justice. To ensure effective uptake and long-term use of its results, the co-designed applied case studies have already involved EU-level stakeholders, such as Directorate-Generals, the JRC, the EEA, the Mission Adaptation, as well as local practitioners, businesses, and authorities.

Lavoro eseguito dall’inizio del progetto fino alla fine del periodo coperto dalla relazione e principali risultati finora ottenuti

-Climate impacts and adaptation literature stocktaking and gap analysis
-Framing of ACCREU’s adaptation and climate scenarios
-Set up of the protocol guiding the project co-creation process with stakeholders
-Implementation of the structured science-practice interaction through continuous bilateral meetings allowing a deep engagement among stakeholders
-Development and improvement of more than ten sectoral and empirical models to assess climate change impacts and adaptation costs for new climate and socioeconomic scenarios and with different levels of adaptation
-Quantification of climate impacts, adaptation costs and benefits in the following areas: infrastructure, built environment, industry, agriculture, water, and forestry, energy, biodiversity, health, wellbeing, poverty
-Initial set-up of five macroeconomic models to assess 1) the financial effects of physical climate change risk on firms and investors’ portfolios, 2) the fiscal effects on public budgets and debt sustainability, the distributional implications for households.

Progressi oltre lo stato dell’arte e potenziale impatto previsto (incluso l’impatto socioeconomico e le implicazioni sociali più ampie del progetto fino ad ora)

-Development of an innovative framework and protocol to articulate science-practice interaction throughout the entire project, from the co-identification of the key research priorities to the co-design of communication and dissemination strategies
-Development of a case-study framework to enable a consistent reporting and comparison of fifteen different case studies associated with the ACCREU Adaptation Decision Types, including their economic appraisal and to enable the synthesis of insights from case studies into generic adaptation pathways for each Adaptation Decision Type
-Development of data collection and function extrapolation to allow the integrated analysis of mitigation, adaptation and residual damages into macroeconomic and integrated assessment models
-Development of three adaptation scenarios consistent with the updated AR6 scenarios
-Improvement of climate impact models with a richer characterization of adaptation strategies (e.g. migration in response to coastal and river floods, wetlands, zoning restrictions, dikes strengthening, crop switching and land use adjustment, R&D in agricultural technologies, area abandonment, irrigation, water storage for irrigation, improved access to more advanced technologies, trade, air conditioning, planned power generation outages, subsidies)
-Development of new estimates of climate change impacts under a set of future climate and adaptation scenarios, for multiple hazards (river and coastal floods, sea level rise, wildfire, extreme heat, drought, flood, gradual temperature and precipitation changes) across various impact sectors or endpoints (built environment, infrastructure including energy generation and energy demand, water demand, habitat suitability, species distribution and abundance, crop productivity, livestock, grassland productivity, financial stability of central banks, households wellbeing, labour productivity and supply, mortality and morbidity in physical and monetary units) across countries/regions (EU countries and EU nuts regions), for various timeslices (2030, 2050, ~ 2100) with improved sectoral (e.g. extension of impacts from households to commercial and industrial production sectors) and spatial resolution (e.g. from grid cells to EU subnational regions).