Descrizione del progetto
Un sistema informatico sul clima senza soluzione di continuità per il processo decisionale settoriale
Al fine di conseguire l’obiettivo dell’UE di mitigazione o prevenzione dell’impatto dei cambiamenti climatici, sono necessarie informazioni climatiche migliori e più approfondite, nonché un processo decisionale incisivo. Il progetto ASPECT, finanziato dall’UE, fornirà un sostegno all’UE per il raggiungimento di questo obiettivo. A tal fine, svilupperà e introdurrà un sistema informatico senza soluzione di continuità sul clima (SCI, Seamless Climate Information) con un orizzonte temporale di fino a 30 anni e che disponga delle ricerche e delle informazioni necessarie a una sua applicazione settoriale. Inoltre, il progetto migliorerà i sistemi di previsione climatica e combinerà i loro risultati alle proiezioni climatiche per porre il sistema SCI come base per il processo decisionale settoriale.
Obiettivo
ASPECT aims for the setup and demonstration of a seamless climate information (SCI) system with a time horizon up to 30yr, accompanied by underpinning research and utilisation of climate information for sectoral applications (‘middle-ground level’1). The goal is to improve existing climate prediction systems and merge their outputs across timescales together with climate projections to unify a SCI as a standard for sectoral decision-making. The focus will be on European climate information but we will also look more widely where there is a policy interest (e.g. disaster preparedness) and in regions of European interest. We will maintain a strong link into an exploit learning from the WCRP lighthouse activities on explaining and predicting earth system change.
To provide a bandwidth diversity of information the SCI system will be based on multi-model climate forecasts, and will build on learning from projects such as EUCP. It will align with new activities on Digital Twins within Europe, including DestinE. The SCI will combine physical science aspects with those from other disciplines to ensure the information is robust, reliable and relevant for a range of user driven decision cases. The information package will incorporate baseline forecasts and projections (plus uncertainty), but also new frontiers will be explored (e.g. extremes which are of socioeconomic high-level interest). To be successful the research will encompass: Understanding and attribution of various processes along the timescales (such as exploring signal-to-noise ratio) and their impact on predictability, new ways of initialisation of the prediction systems, merging predictions with projections, provision of regional SCI for Europe by downscaling (statistical methods, AI) and HighRes models (including convection-permitting models) and innovative post-processing method enhancing the skill and robustness of the climate forecasts.
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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinatore
08034 Barcelona
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