IMPETUS4CHANGE (I4C): IMPROVING NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION

Project Information

Impetus4Change

Grant agreement ID: 101081555

DOI

10.3030/101081555

EC signature date 4 October 2022

Start date 1 November 2022

End date 31 October 2026

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

€ 9 573 842,36

EU contribution

€ 9 573 842,36

Coordinated by

NORCE RESEARCH AS
Norway

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Documents, reports (8)

Table, definitions, and descriptions of key Hazard indicators on which to focus in subsequent Tasks

Define extreme event and hazard indicators relevant for the European area and specifically for the Demonstrators undertaken in WP6 and for wider networks in WP1; engage stakeholders through a series of workshops undertaken in WP6.

Description of the Data Reference syntax for archiving results of statistical and emulation-based downscaling

The bias adjustment and downscaling tools and the new emulators will be made publicly available on a GitHub repository to facilitate their application worldwide, e.g., via the WP7 EOSC Hub.

Experimental protocol for the new CPRCM I4C simulations and lists of the planned runs

Protocol for CPRCM regional simulations (very high-resolution (2-4km) climate simulations over Europe).

Management structures & procedures

Management structures & procedures; internal communication tools and platforms established; establishment of Scientific Steering Committee; gender and ECS action plan

Quality assurance protocols established (KPIs)

Scientific coordination, quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation of the project

Establishment of clustering activities

Establishment of clustering activities in order to facilitate efficient information flow, coordination with outside initiatives and support of DEC activities

Guidelines for the blending methods

Guidelines for the blending methods: inconsistencies to address, reference quality metrics and target outputs. Unveiling inconsistencies between the different sets of predictions and projections

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design process

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design of the climate services to be further developed.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2)

Communication, and dissemination strategy

Communication, and dissemination strategy including establishment of website and visual identity

Exploitation plan

The exploitation plan will contain concrete outcomes and updated throughout the project culminating in a final report including plans for beyond the project.

Data Management Plan (1)

Data management plan, informed consent forms & info sheets

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (36)

<scp>EMBODYING AND RESISTING URBAN HEAT INJUSTICE</scp> : Migrant Vulnerabilities and Radical Adaptations in El Raval, Barcelona

Author(s): Panagiota Kotsila, Valeria‐Carolin Cuenca, Manuel Franco, Lourenço Melo, Sam Pickard
Published in: International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Issue 49, 2025, ISSN 0309-1317
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1468-2427.13359

Unraveling the Complexity of Global Climate Dynamics: Interactions among El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Tropical Basins Across Different Timescales

Author(s): Hu, Aixue; Richter, Ingo; Okumura, Yuko; Burls, Natalie; Keenlyside, Noel; Parfitt, Rhys; Bellomo, Katinka; Bellucci, Alessio; Farneti, Riccardo; Fedorov, Alexey; Ferster, Brady; He, Chengfei; Li, Qian; Matei, Daniela
Published in: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2025, ISSN 2771-0378
Publisher: Washington District of Columbia
DOI: 10.34133/OLAR.0096

Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR

Author(s): Zanchettin, D; Fang, SW; Khodri, M; Omrani, NE; Rubinetti, S; Rubino, A; Timmreck, C; Jungclaus, JH
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06679-W

Framework for an Ocean‐Connected Supermodel of the Earth System

Author(s): François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Shuo Wang, Marion Devilliers, Alok Gupta, Shunya Koseki, Mao‐Lin Shen
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Issue 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003310

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Author(s): Elizabeth J. Kendon; Henry Addison; Antoine Doury; Samuel Somot; Peter A. G. Watson; Ben B. B. Booth; Erika Coppola; José Manuel Gutiérrez; James Murphy; Calum Scullion
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0114.1

Heat and Health in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area: Bringing together Researchers, Decision-Makers, and Public Engagement Experts

Author(s): Sam Pickard, Dragana Bojovic, Mar Santamaria-Varas, Pablo Martínez Díez
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 106, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0135.1

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Author(s): Sandro W. Lubis, Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Ziming Chen, Clare S. Y. Huang, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-64672-9

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Author(s): T. Carmo-Costa; R. Bilbao; J. Robson; A. Teles-Machado; A. Teles-Machado; P. Ortega
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1001-2025

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Author(s): Schevenhoven, F; Keenlyside, N.; Counillon, F.; Carrassi, A.; Chapman, W.E.; Devilliers, M.; Gupta, A.; Koseki, S.; Selten, F.M.; Shen, M.L.; Wang, S.; Weiss, J.B.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Duane, G.S.
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Author(s): K. Xie; K. Xie; L. Li; H. Chen; H. Chen; S. Mayer; A. Dobler; C.-Y. Xu; O. M. Göktürk
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1027-5606
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-29-2133-2025

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate

Author(s): Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 49, 2025, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.WACE.2025.100785

Predictability of Semiannual Atmospheric Circulation Type Frequencies in the Extratropics Using the EC‐Earth3 Decadal Forecasting System

Author(s): S. Brands, E. Cimadevilla, J. Fernández
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114176

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Author(s): Terence J. O'Kane; Adam A. Scaife; Adam A. Scaife; Yochanan Kushnir; Anca Brookshaw; Carlo Buontempo; David Carlin; Richenda K. Connell; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Nick Dunstone; Kristian Förster; Kristian Förster; Antonio Graça; Alistair J. Hobday; Vassili Kitsios; Larissa van der Laan; Julia Lockwood; William J. Merryfield; Andreas Paxian; Mark R. Payne; M. Catherine Reader; Geoffrey R. Saville; Geoffrey R. Saville; Doug Smith; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Nico Caltabiano; Jessie Carman; Ed Hawkins; Noel Keenlyside; Arun Kumar; Daniela Matei; Holger Pohlmann; Scott Power; Scott Power; Marilyn Raphael; Michael Sparrow; Bo Wu
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation

Author(s): Doury, Antoine; Somot, Samuel; Gadat, Sebastien
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-3802128/V1

The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information

Author(s): Douglas Maraun, Dragana Bojovic, Wendy Parker, Theodore G. Shepherd, Stefan Sobolowski, Cyril Caminade, Alessandro Dosio, William J. Gutowski, Anna Sörensson, Leandro B. Diaz, Ibrahima Diouf, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Valeria Hernández, Christopher Jack, Laura Pereira, Juan A. Rivera, Federico Robledo, Samuel Somot
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 14, 2026, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005618

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub‐Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Author(s): Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Daniel Krieger, Wolfgang A. Müller
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111895

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Author(s): Baulenas, Eulàlia; Versteeg, Gerrit; Terrado, Marta; Mindlin, Julia; Bojovic, Dragana
Published in: Global Challenges, 2023, ISSN 2056-6646
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202200183

Transferability and explainability of deep learning emulators for regional climate model projections: Perspectives for future applications

Author(s): Bano-Medina, Jorge; Iturbide, Maialen; Fernandez, Jesus; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel
Published in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 2769-7525
Publisher: AMS
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.03378

Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research: The ARCPATH Project

Author(s): Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.; King, Leslie A.; Keenlyside, Noel; Counillon, Francois; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Einarsson, Niels; Gulev, Sergey; Fan, Ke; Koenigk, Torben; Mcgoodwin, James R.; Rasmusson, Marianne H.; Yang, Shuting
Published in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Issue 41, 2024, ISSN 1861-9533
Publisher: Springer Link
DOI: 10.1007/S00376-023-3333-X

Precipitation extremes in 2023

Author(s): Fowler HJ; Blenkinsop S; Green A; Davies PA
Published in: Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-138X
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43017-024-00547-9

Environmental Research Letters

Author(s): Rashed Mahmood*, Shuting Yang and Markus G Donat
Published in: Environ. Res. Lett., ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: nstitute of Physics and IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADDE75

The changing role of operational meteorology towards a transdisciplinary approach to future weather and climate services

Author(s): Paul Davies; Hayley J. Fowler; Helen Roberts; Christopher J. White; Monica Youngman; David P. Rogers
Published in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0535

Future Local‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Changes in Norway: A Convection‐Permitting Climate Model Perspective

Author(s): Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Stefan P. Sobolowski; Chong‐Yu Xu
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2025, ISSN 2169-8996
Publisher: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042899

Hybrid covariance super-resolution data assimilation

Author(s): Sébastien Barthélémy; Julien Brajard; Laurent Bertino; François Counillon
Published in: Ocean Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1616-7228
Publisher: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4454996/V1

GCM Selection and Ensemble Design: Best Practices and Recommendations from the EURO-CORDEX Community

Author(s): Stefan Sobolowski; Samuel Somot; Jesus Fernandez; Guillaume Evin; Swen Brands; Douglas Maraun; Sven Kotlarski; Martin Jury; Rasmus E. Benestad; Claas Teichmann; Ole B. Christensen; Katharina Bülow; Erasmo Buonomo; Eleni Katragkou; Christian Steger; Silje Sørland; Grigory Nikulin; Carol McSweeney; Andreas Dobler; Tamzin Palmer; Renate Wilcke; Julien Boé; Lukas Brunner; Aurélien Ribes; Said Qasmi; Pierre Nabat; Florence Sevault; Thomas Oudar
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 1520-0477
Publisher: American Meteoroligical Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0189.1

Enhanced Evaluation of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in Norway from Convection-Permitting Models at Regional and Local Scales

Author(s): Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Andreas Dobler; Chong-Yu Xu; Ozan Mert Gokturk
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2024, ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-2024-68

ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability

Author(s): Martin P. King; Noel Keenlyside; Camille Li
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Publisher: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06697-8

When the sun goes down, heat vulnerability remains

Author(s): Jiayang Hu, Florence Gignac, Sam Pickard, Paloma Trascasa Castro, Eren Duzenli, Dragana Bojovic
Published in: City and Environment Interactions, Issue 29, 2026, ISSN 2590-2520
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.CACINT.2025.100284

Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change

Author(s): Orr, Harriet G.; Hall, Caitlyn A.; Rhodes, Vicki; Wilby, Rob L.; Peat, Katy L.; Fowler, Hayley J.
Published in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Publisher: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0290

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Author(s): Cécile Caillaud, Samuel Somot, Hervé Douville, Antoinette Alias, Sophie Bastin, Susanne Brienen, Marie-Estelle Demory, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Goergen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Paola Mercogliano,
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue Volume 51, Issue 6, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Publisher: Advancing Earth and Space Sciences
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105143

Assessing the performance of convection-permitting climate model in reproducing basin-scale hydrological extremes: A western Norway case study

Author(s): Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Chong-Yu Xu
Published in: Journal of Hydrology, Issue 656, 2025, ISSN 0022-1694
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2025.132989

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Author(s): Sebastien Barthelemy; Francois Counillon; Yiguo Wang
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003888

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Author(s): William E. Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, Jesse Nusbaumer
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 18, 2026, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-5451-2025

Urban Climate

Author(s): Langendijk, Gaby; Halenka, Tomas; Hoffmann, Peter; Adinolfi, Marianna; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Asselin, Olivier; Bastin, Sophie; Bechtel, Benjamin; Belda, Michal; Bushenkova, Angelina; Campanale, Angelo; Chun, Kwok Pan; Constantinidou, Katiana; Coppola, Erika; Demuzere, Matthias; Doan, Quang-Van; Evans, Jason; Feldmann, Hendrik; Fernandez, Jesus; Fita, Lluís; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Hamdi, Rafiq; Hundhausen, Marie; Grawe, David; Johannsen, Frederico; Milovac, Josipa; Katragkou, Eleni; El Islam Kerroumi, Nour; Kotlarski, Sven; Le Roy, Benjamin Guillaume; Lemonsu, Aude; Lennard, Christopher; Lipson, Mathew; Mandal, Shailendra; Muñoz Pabón, Luís; Pavlidis, Vassileios; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Raffa, Mario; Raluy-López, Eloisa; Rechid, Diana; Ito, Rui; Schulz, Jan-Peter; Soares, Pedro; Takane, Yuya; Teichmann, Claas; Thatcher, Marcus; Top, Sara; van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Wang, Fuxing; Yuan, Jiacan
Published in: Urban Climate, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Publisher: Elsevier
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.4846089

More extreme summertime North Atlantic Oscillation under climate change

Author(s): Quan Liu, Jürgen Bader, Johann H. Jungclaus, Daniela Matei
Published in: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Issue 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02422-X

The signature of the main modes of climatic variability as revealed by the Jenkinson‐Collison classification over Europe

Author(s): Juan A. Fernández‐Granja; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; Swen Brands; Jesús Fernández
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, Issue 44, 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8569