IMPETUS4CHANGE (I4C): IMPROVING NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION

Informazioni relative al progetto

Impetus4Change

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101081555

DOI

10.3030/101081555

Data della firma CE 4 Ottobre 2022

Data di avvio 1 Novembre 2022

Data di completamento 31 Ottobre 2026

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 9 573 842,36

Contributo UE

€ 9 573 842,36

Coordinato da

NORCE RESEARCH AS
Norway

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (8)

Table, definitions, and descriptions of key Hazard indicators on which to focus in subsequent Tasks

Define extreme event and hazard indicators relevant for the European area and specifically for the Demonstrators undertaken in WP6 and for wider networks in WP1; engage stakeholders through a series of workshops undertaken in WP6.

Description of the Data Reference syntax for archiving results of statistical and emulation-based downscaling

The bias adjustment and downscaling tools and the new emulators will be made publicly available on a GitHub repository to facilitate their application worldwide, e.g., via the WP7 EOSC Hub.

Experimental protocol for the new CPRCM I4C simulations and lists of the planned runs

Protocol for CPRCM regional simulations (very high-resolution (2-4km) climate simulations over Europe).

Management structures & procedures

Management structures & procedures; internal communication tools and platforms established; establishment of Scientific Steering Committee; gender and ECS action plan

Quality assurance protocols established (KPIs)

Scientific coordination, quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation of the project

Establishment of clustering activities

Establishment of clustering activities in order to facilitate efficient information flow, coordination with outside initiatives and support of DEC activities

Guidelines for the blending methods

Guidelines for the blending methods: inconsistencies to address, reference quality metrics and target outputs. Unveiling inconsistencies between the different sets of predictions and projections

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design process

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design of the climate services to be further developed.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2)

Communication, and dissemination strategy

Communication, and dissemination strategy including establishment of website and visual identity

Exploitation plan

The exploitation plan will contain concrete outcomes and updated throughout the project culminating in a final report including plans for beyond the project.

Data Management Plan (1)

Data management plan, informed consent forms & info sheets

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (30)

<scp>EMBODYING AND RESISTING URBAN HEAT INJUSTICE</scp> : Migrant Vulnerabilities and Radical Adaptations in El Raval, Barcelona

Autori: Panagiota Kotsila, Valeria‐Carolin Cuenca, Manuel Franco, Lourenço Melo, Sam Pickard
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Numero 49, 2025, ISSN 0309-1317
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1468-2427.13359

Unraveling the Complexity of Global Climate Dynamics: Interactions among El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Tropical Basins Across Different Timescales

Autori: Hu, Aixue; Richter, Ingo; Okumura, Yuko; Burls, Natalie; Keenlyside, Noel; Parfitt, Rhys; Bellomo, Katinka; Bellucci, Alessio; Farneti, Riccardo; Fedorov, Alexey; Ferster, Brady; He, Chengfei; Li, Qian; Matei, Daniela
Pubblicato in: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2025, ISSN 2771-0378
Editore: Washington District of Columbia
DOI: 10.34133/OLAR.0096

Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR

Autori: Zanchettin, D; Fang, SW; Khodri, M; Omrani, NE; Rubinetti, S; Rubino, A; Timmreck, C; Jungclaus, JH
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06679-W

Framework for an Ocean‐Connected Supermodel of the Earth System

Autori: François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Shuo Wang, Marion Devilliers, Alok Gupta, Shunya Koseki, Mao‐Lin Shen
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003310

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Autori: Elizabeth J. Kendon; Henry Addison; Antoine Doury; Samuel Somot; Peter A. G. Watson; Ben B. B. Booth; Erika Coppola; José Manuel Gutiérrez; James Murphy; Calum Scullion
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0114.1

Heat and Health in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area: Bringing together Researchers, Decision-Makers, and Public Engagement Experts

Autori: Sam Pickard, Dragana Bojovic, Mar Santamaria-Varas, Pablo Martínez Díez
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numero 106, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0135.1

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Autori: Sandro W. Lubis, Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Ziming Chen, Clare S. Y. Huang, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-64672-9

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Autori: T. Carmo-Costa; R. Bilbao; J. Robson; A. Teles-Machado; A. Teles-Machado; P. Ortega
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1001-2025

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Autori: Schevenhoven, F; Keenlyside, N.; Counillon, F.; Carrassi, A.; Chapman, W.E.; Devilliers, M.; Gupta, A.; Koseki, S.; Selten, F.M.; Shen, M.L.; Wang, S.; Weiss, J.B.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Duane, G.S.
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Autori: K. Xie; K. Xie; L. Li; H. Chen; H. Chen; S. Mayer; A. Dobler; C.-Y. Xu; O. M. Göktürk
Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1027-5606
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-29-2133-2025

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate

Autori: Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 49, 2025, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.WACE.2025.100785

Predictability of Semiannual Atmospheric Circulation Type Frequencies in the Extratropics Using the EC‐Earth3 Decadal Forecasting System

Autori: S. Brands, E. Cimadevilla, J. Fernández
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114176

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Autori: Terence J. O'Kane; Adam A. Scaife; Adam A. Scaife; Yochanan Kushnir; Anca Brookshaw; Carlo Buontempo; David Carlin; Richenda K. Connell; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Nick Dunstone; Kristian Förster; Kristian Förster; Antonio Graça; Alistair J. Hobday; Vassili Kitsios; Larissa van der Laan; Julia Lockwood; William J. Merryfield; Andreas Paxian; Mark R. Payne; M. Catherine Reader; Geoffrey R. Saville; Geoffrey R. Saville; Doug Smith; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Nico Caltabiano; Jessie Carman; Ed Hawkins; Noel Keenlyside; Arun Kumar; Daniela Matei; Holger Pohlmann; Scott Power; Scott Power; Marilyn Raphael; Michael Sparrow; Bo Wu
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Editore: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation

Autori: Doury, Antoine; Somot, Samuel; Gadat, Sebastien
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-3802128/V1

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Autori: Baulenas, Eulàlia; Versteeg, Gerrit; Terrado, Marta; Mindlin, Julia; Bojovic, Dragana
Pubblicato in: Global Challenges, 2023, ISSN 2056-6646
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202200183

Transferability and explainability of deep learning emulators for regional climate model projections: Perspectives for future applications

Autori: Bano-Medina, Jorge; Iturbide, Maialen; Fernandez, Jesus; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: AMS
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.03378

Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research: The ARCPATH Project

Autori: Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.; King, Leslie A.; Keenlyside, Noel; Counillon, Francois; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Einarsson, Niels; Gulev, Sergey; Fan, Ke; Koenigk, Torben; Mcgoodwin, James R.; Rasmusson, Marianne H.; Yang, Shuting
Pubblicato in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Numero 41, 2024, ISSN 1861-9533
Editore: Springer Link
DOI: 10.1007/S00376-023-3333-X

Precipitation extremes in 2023

Autori: Fowler HJ; Blenkinsop S; Green A; Davies PA
Pubblicato in: Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-138X
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43017-024-00547-9

The changing role of operational meteorology towards a transdisciplinary approach to future weather and climate services

Autori: Paul Davies; Hayley J. Fowler; Helen Roberts; Christopher J. White; Monica Youngman; David P. Rogers
Pubblicato in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Editore: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0535

Future Local‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Changes in Norway: A Convection‐Permitting Climate Model Perspective

Autori: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Stefan P. Sobolowski; Chong‐Yu Xu
Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2025, ISSN 2169-8996
Editore: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042899

Hybrid covariance super-resolution data assimilation

Autori: Sébastien Barthélémy; Julien Brajard; Laurent Bertino; François Counillon
Pubblicato in: Ocean Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1616-7228
Editore: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4454996/V1

Enhanced Evaluation of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in Norway from Convection-Permitting Models at Regional and Local Scales

Autori: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Andreas Dobler; Chong-Yu Xu; Ozan Mert Gokturk
Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2024, ISSN 1607-7938
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-2024-68

ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability

Autori: Martin P. King; Noel Keenlyside; Camille Li
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06697-8

Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change

Autori: Orr, Harriet G.; Hall, Caitlyn A.; Rhodes, Vicki; Wilby, Rob L.; Peat, Katy L.; Fowler, Hayley J.
Pubblicato in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Editore: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0290

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Autori: Cécile Caillaud, Samuel Somot, Hervé Douville, Antoinette Alias, Sophie Bastin, Susanne Brienen, Marie-Estelle Demory, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Goergen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Paola Mercogliano,
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero Volume 51, Numero 6, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Advancing Earth and Space Sciences
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105143

Assessing the performance of convection-permitting climate model in reproducing basin-scale hydrological extremes: A western Norway case study

Autori: Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Chong-Yu Xu
Pubblicato in: Journal of Hydrology, Numero 656, 2025, ISSN 0022-1694
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2025.132989

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Autori: Sebastien Barthelemy; Francois Counillon; Yiguo Wang
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003888

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Autori: William E. Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, Jesse Nusbaumer
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 18, 2026, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-5451-2025

Urban Climate

Autori: Langendijk, Gaby; Halenka, Tomas; Hoffmann, Peter; Adinolfi, Marianna; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Asselin, Olivier; Bastin, Sophie; Bechtel, Benjamin; Belda, Michal; Bushenkova, Angelina; Campanale, Angelo; Chun, Kwok Pan; Constantinidou, Katiana; Coppola, Erika; Demuzere, Matthias; Doan, Quang-Van; Evans, Jason; Feldmann, Hendrik; Fernandez, Jesus; Fita, Lluís; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Hamdi, Rafiq; Hundhausen, Marie; Grawe, David; Johannsen, Frederico; Milovac, Josipa; Katragkou, Eleni; El Islam Kerroumi, Nour; Kotlarski, Sven; Le Roy, Benjamin Guillaume; Lemonsu, Aude; Lennard, Christopher; Lipson, Mathew; Mandal, Shailendra; Muñoz Pabón, Luís; Pavlidis, Vassileios; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Raffa, Mario; Raluy-López, Eloisa; Rechid, Diana; Ito, Rui; Schulz, Jan-Peter; Soares, Pedro; Takane, Yuya; Teichmann, Claas; Thatcher, Marcus; Top, Sara; van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Wang, Fuxing; Yuan, Jiacan
Pubblicato in: Urban Climate, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.4846089

The signature of the main modes of climatic variability as revealed by the Jenkinson‐Collison classification over Europe

Autori: Juan A. Fernández‐Granja; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; Swen Brands; Jesús Fernández
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, Numero 44, 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8569