IMPETUS4CHANGE (I4C): IMPROVING NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION

Informacje na temat projektu

Impetus4Change

Identyfikator umowy o grant: 101081555

DOI

10.3030/101081555

Data podpisania przez KE 4 Października 2022

Data rozpoczęcia 1 Listopada 2022

Data zakończenia 31 Października 2026

Finansowanie w ramach

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Koszt całkowity

€ 9 573 842,36

Wkład UE

€ 9 573 842,36

Koordynowany przez

NORCE RESEARCH AS
Norway

CORDIS oferuje możliwość skorzystania z odnośników do publicznie dostępnych publikacji i rezultatów projektów realizowanych w ramach programów ramowych HORYZONT.

Odnośniki do rezultatów i publikacji związanych z poszczególnymi projektami 7PR, a także odnośniki do niektórych konkretnych kategorii wyników, takich jak zbiory danych i oprogramowanie, są dynamicznie pobierane z systemu OpenAIRE .

Rezultaty

Documents, reports (8)

Table, definitions, and descriptions of key Hazard indicators on which to focus in subsequent Tasks

Define extreme event and hazard indicators relevant for the European area and specifically for the Demonstrators undertaken in WP6 and for wider networks in WP1; engage stakeholders through a series of workshops undertaken in WP6.

Description of the Data Reference syntax for archiving results of statistical and emulation-based downscaling

The bias adjustment and downscaling tools and the new emulators will be made publicly available on a GitHub repository to facilitate their application worldwide, e.g., via the WP7 EOSC Hub.

Experimental protocol for the new CPRCM I4C simulations and lists of the planned runs

Protocol for CPRCM regional simulations (very high-resolution (2-4km) climate simulations over Europe).

Management structures & procedures

Management structures & procedures; internal communication tools and platforms established; establishment of Scientific Steering Committee; gender and ECS action plan

Quality assurance protocols established (KPIs)

Scientific coordination, quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation of the project

Establishment of clustering activities

Establishment of clustering activities in order to facilitate efficient information flow, coordination with outside initiatives and support of DEC activities

Guidelines for the blending methods

Guidelines for the blending methods: inconsistencies to address, reference quality metrics and target outputs. Unveiling inconsistencies between the different sets of predictions and projections

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design process

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design of the climate services to be further developed.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2)

Communication, and dissemination strategy

Communication, and dissemination strategy including establishment of website and visual identity

Exploitation plan

The exploitation plan will contain concrete outcomes and updated throughout the project culminating in a final report including plans for beyond the project.

Data Management Plan (1)

Data management plan, informed consent forms & info sheets

Publikacje

Peer reviewed articles (36)

<scp>EMBODYING AND RESISTING URBAN HEAT INJUSTICE</scp> : Migrant Vulnerabilities and Radical Adaptations in El Raval, Barcelona

Autorzy: Panagiota Kotsila, Valeria‐Carolin Cuenca, Manuel Franco, Lourenço Melo, Sam Pickard
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Numer 49, 2025, ISSN 0309-1317
Wydawca: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1468-2427.13359

Unraveling the Complexity of Global Climate Dynamics: Interactions among El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Tropical Basins Across Different Timescales

Autorzy: Hu, Aixue; Richter, Ingo; Okumura, Yuko; Burls, Natalie; Keenlyside, Noel; Parfitt, Rhys; Bellomo, Katinka; Bellucci, Alessio; Farneti, Riccardo; Fedorov, Alexey; Ferster, Brady; He, Chengfei; Li, Qian; Matei, Daniela
Opublikowane w: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2025, ISSN 2771-0378
Wydawca: Washington District of Columbia
DOI: 10.34133/OLAR.0096

Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR

Autorzy: Zanchettin, D; Fang, SW; Khodri, M; Omrani, NE; Rubinetti, S; Rubino, A; Timmreck, C; Jungclaus, JH
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06679-W

Framework for an Ocean‐Connected Supermodel of the Earth System

Autorzy: François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Shuo Wang, Marion Devilliers, Alok Gupta, Shunya Koseki, Mao‐Lin Shen
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numer 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003310

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Autorzy: Elizabeth J. Kendon; Henry Addison; Antoine Doury; Samuel Somot; Peter A. G. Watson; Ben B. B. Booth; Erika Coppola; José Manuel Gutiérrez; James Murphy; Calum Scullion
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0114.1

Heat and Health in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area: Bringing together Researchers, Decision-Makers, and Public Engagement Experts

Autorzy: Sam Pickard, Dragana Bojovic, Mar Santamaria-Varas, Pablo Martínez Díez
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numer 106, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0135.1

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Autorzy: Sandro W. Lubis, Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Ziming Chen, Clare S. Y. Huang, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-64672-9

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Autorzy: T. Carmo-Costa; R. Bilbao; J. Robson; A. Teles-Machado; A. Teles-Machado; P. Ortega
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1001-2025

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Autorzy: Schevenhoven, F; Keenlyside, N.; Counillon, F.; Carrassi, A.; Chapman, W.E.; Devilliers, M.; Gupta, A.; Koseki, S.; Selten, F.M.; Shen, M.L.; Wang, S.; Weiss, J.B.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Duane, G.S.
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Autorzy: K. Xie; K. Xie; L. Li; H. Chen; H. Chen; S. Mayer; A. Dobler; C.-Y. Xu; O. M. Göktürk
Opublikowane w: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1027-5606
Wydawca: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-29-2133-2025

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate

Autorzy: Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numer 49, 2025, ISSN 2212-0947
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.WACE.2025.100785

Predictability of Semiannual Atmospheric Circulation Type Frequencies in the Extratropics Using the EC‐Earth3 Decadal Forecasting System

Autorzy: S. Brands, E. Cimadevilla, J. Fernández
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114176

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Autorzy: Terence J. O'Kane; Adam A. Scaife; Adam A. Scaife; Yochanan Kushnir; Anca Brookshaw; Carlo Buontempo; David Carlin; Richenda K. Connell; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Nick Dunstone; Kristian Förster; Kristian Förster; Antonio Graça; Alistair J. Hobday; Vassili Kitsios; Larissa van der Laan; Julia Lockwood; William J. Merryfield; Andreas Paxian; Mark R. Payne; M. Catherine Reader; Geoffrey R. Saville; Geoffrey R. Saville; Doug Smith; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Nico Caltabiano; Jessie Carman; Ed Hawkins; Noel Keenlyside; Arun Kumar; Daniela Matei; Holger Pohlmann; Scott Power; Scott Power; Marilyn Raphael; Michael Sparrow; Bo Wu
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Climate, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Wydawca: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation

Autorzy: Doury, Antoine; Somot, Samuel; Gadat, Sebastien
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-3802128/V1

The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information

Autorzy: Douglas Maraun, Dragana Bojovic, Wendy Parker, Theodore G. Shepherd, Stefan Sobolowski, Cyril Caminade, Alessandro Dosio, William J. Gutowski, Anna Sörensson, Leandro B. Diaz, Ibrahima Diouf, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Valeria Hernández, Christopher Jack, Laura Pereira, Juan A. Rivera, Federico Robledo, Samuel Somot
Opublikowane w: Earth's Future, Numer 14, 2026, ISSN 2328-4277
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005618

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub‐Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Autorzy: Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Daniel Krieger, Wolfgang A. Müller
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111895

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Autorzy: Baulenas, Eulàlia; Versteeg, Gerrit; Terrado, Marta; Mindlin, Julia; Bojovic, Dragana
Opublikowane w: Global Challenges, 2023, ISSN 2056-6646
Wydawca: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202200183

Transferability and explainability of deep learning emulators for regional climate model projections: Perspectives for future applications

Autorzy: Bano-Medina, Jorge; Iturbide, Maialen; Fernandez, Jesus; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel
Opublikowane w: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 2769-7525
Wydawca: AMS
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.03378

Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research: The ARCPATH Project

Autorzy: Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.; King, Leslie A.; Keenlyside, Noel; Counillon, Francois; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Einarsson, Niels; Gulev, Sergey; Fan, Ke; Koenigk, Torben; Mcgoodwin, James R.; Rasmusson, Marianne H.; Yang, Shuting
Opublikowane w: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Numer 41, 2024, ISSN 1861-9533
Wydawca: Springer Link
DOI: 10.1007/S00376-023-3333-X

Precipitation extremes in 2023

Autorzy: Fowler HJ; Blenkinsop S; Green A; Davies PA
Opublikowane w: Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-138X
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43017-024-00547-9

Environmental Research Letters

Autorzy: Rashed Mahmood*, Shuting Yang and Markus G Donat
Opublikowane w: Environ. Res. Lett., ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: nstitute of Physics and IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADDE75

The changing role of operational meteorology towards a transdisciplinary approach to future weather and climate services

Autorzy: Paul Davies; Hayley J. Fowler; Helen Roberts; Christopher J. White; Monica Youngman; David P. Rogers
Opublikowane w: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Wydawca: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0535

Future Local‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Changes in Norway: A Convection‐Permitting Climate Model Perspective

Autorzy: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Stefan P. Sobolowski; Chong‐Yu Xu
Opublikowane w: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2025, ISSN 2169-8996
Wydawca: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042899

Hybrid covariance super-resolution data assimilation

Autorzy: Sébastien Barthélémy; Julien Brajard; Laurent Bertino; François Counillon
Opublikowane w: Ocean Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1616-7228
Wydawca: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4454996/V1

GCM Selection and Ensemble Design: Best Practices and Recommendations from the EURO-CORDEX Community

Autorzy: Stefan Sobolowski; Samuel Somot; Jesus Fernandez; Guillaume Evin; Swen Brands; Douglas Maraun; Sven Kotlarski; Martin Jury; Rasmus E. Benestad; Claas Teichmann; Ole B. Christensen; Katharina Bülow; Erasmo Buonomo; Eleni Katragkou; Christian Steger; Silje Sørland; Grigory Nikulin; Carol McSweeney; Andreas Dobler; Tamzin Palmer; Renate Wilcke; Julien Boé; Lukas Brunner; Aurélien Ribes; Said Qasmi; Pierre Nabat; Florence Sevault; Thomas Oudar
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 1520-0477
Wydawca: American Meteoroligical Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0189.1

Enhanced Evaluation of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in Norway from Convection-Permitting Models at Regional and Local Scales

Autorzy: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Andreas Dobler; Chong-Yu Xu; Ozan Mert Gokturk
Opublikowane w: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2024, ISSN 1607-7938
Wydawca: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-2024-68

ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability

Autorzy: Martin P. King; Noel Keenlyside; Camille Li
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06697-8

When the sun goes down, heat vulnerability remains

Autorzy: Jiayang Hu, Florence Gignac, Sam Pickard, Paloma Trascasa Castro, Eren Duzenli, Dragana Bojovic
Opublikowane w: City and Environment Interactions, Numer 29, 2026, ISSN 2590-2520
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.CACINT.2025.100284

Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change

Autorzy: Orr, Harriet G.; Hall, Caitlyn A.; Rhodes, Vicki; Wilby, Rob L.; Peat, Katy L.; Fowler, Hayley J.
Opublikowane w: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Wydawca: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0290

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Autorzy: Cécile Caillaud, Samuel Somot, Hervé Douville, Antoinette Alias, Sophie Bastin, Susanne Brienen, Marie-Estelle Demory, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Goergen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Paola Mercogliano,
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer Volume 51, Numer 6, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Wydawca: Advancing Earth and Space Sciences
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105143

Assessing the performance of convection-permitting climate model in reproducing basin-scale hydrological extremes: A western Norway case study

Autorzy: Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Chong-Yu Xu
Opublikowane w: Journal of Hydrology, Numer 656, 2025, ISSN 0022-1694
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2025.132989

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Autorzy: Sebastien Barthelemy; Francois Counillon; Yiguo Wang
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003888

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Autorzy: William E. Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, Jesse Nusbaumer
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 18, 2026, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-5451-2025

Urban Climate

Autorzy: Langendijk, Gaby; Halenka, Tomas; Hoffmann, Peter; Adinolfi, Marianna; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Asselin, Olivier; Bastin, Sophie; Bechtel, Benjamin; Belda, Michal; Bushenkova, Angelina; Campanale, Angelo; Chun, Kwok Pan; Constantinidou, Katiana; Coppola, Erika; Demuzere, Matthias; Doan, Quang-Van; Evans, Jason; Feldmann, Hendrik; Fernandez, Jesus; Fita, Lluís; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Hamdi, Rafiq; Hundhausen, Marie; Grawe, David; Johannsen, Frederico; Milovac, Josipa; Katragkou, Eleni; El Islam Kerroumi, Nour; Kotlarski, Sven; Le Roy, Benjamin Guillaume; Lemonsu, Aude; Lennard, Christopher; Lipson, Mathew; Mandal, Shailendra; Muñoz Pabón, Luís; Pavlidis, Vassileios; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Raffa, Mario; Raluy-López, Eloisa; Rechid, Diana; Ito, Rui; Schulz, Jan-Peter; Soares, Pedro; Takane, Yuya; Teichmann, Claas; Thatcher, Marcus; Top, Sara; van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Wang, Fuxing; Yuan, Jiacan
Opublikowane w: Urban Climate, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.4846089

More extreme summertime North Atlantic Oscillation under climate change

Autorzy: Quan Liu, Jürgen Bader, Johann H. Jungclaus, Daniela Matei
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Numer 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02422-X

The signature of the main modes of climatic variability as revealed by the Jenkinson‐Collison classification over Europe

Autorzy: Juan A. Fernández‐Granja; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; Swen Brands; Jesús Fernández
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Climatology, Numer 44, 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8569