IMPETUS4CHANGE (I4C): IMPROVING NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION

Informations projet

Impetus4Change

N° de convention de subvention: 101081555

DOI

10.3030/101081555

Date de signature de la CE 4 Octobre 2022

Date de début 1 Novembre 2022

Date de fin 31 Octobre 2026

Financé au titre de

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Coût total

€ 9 573 842,36

Contribution de l’UE

€ 9 573 842,36

Coordonné par

NORCE RESEARCH AS
Norway

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Documents, reports (19)

Stakeholder mapping summary report

Report presenting the mapping of relevant stakeholders in the four Demonstrators: Bergen (Norway), Paris (France), Barcelona (Spain), and Prague (Czech Republic)

Synthesis report documenting the new I4C blending strategies
Table, definitions, and descriptions of key Hazard indicators on which to focus in subsequent Tasks

Define extreme event and hazard indicators relevant for the European area and specifically for the Demonstrators undertaken in WP6 and for wider networks in WP1; engage stakeholders through a series of workshops undertaken in WP6.

Paper reviewing the landscape of knowledge networks for adaptation in Europe

The primary task here is to take stock of the current landscape of KN operating in the climate change adaptation field across Europe. This information will allow us to review existing academic and grey literature to help understand this complex landscape including typologies of KN.

Description of the Data Reference syntax for archiving results of statistical and emulation-based downscaling

The bias adjustment and downscaling tools and the new emulators will be made publicly available on a GitHub repository to facilitate their application worldwide, e.g., via the WP7 EOSC Hub.

Experimental protocol for the new CPRCM I4C simulations and lists of the planned runs

Protocol for CPRCM regional simulations (very high-resolution (2-4km) climate simulations over Europe).

Management structures & procedures

Management structures & procedures; internal communication tools and platforms established; establishment of Scientific Steering Committee; gender and ECS action plan

Interim report on exploitation activities

Interim report on exploitation activities incl. EOSC open data space, update to exploitation plan

Quality assurance protocols established (KPIs)

Scientific coordination, quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation of the project

Report on the impact of model errors and signal to noise problem on the predictive skill of decadal forecast systems

In this report we will identify the relation among systematic model errors, the realism of atmospheric teleconnections and the predictive skill. Further, we will use this knowledge to improve understanding about the causes of the underestimated signal-to-noise ratio in current prediction systems.

Establishment of clustering activities

Establishment of clustering activities in order to facilitate efficient information flow, coordination with outside initiatives and support of DEC activities

First report on quality assurance KPIs

Report describing and giving status on scientific coordination, quality assurance, monitoring and evaluation of the project

Paper on the barriers and opportunities for innovative/bottom-up KN for adaptation operating in Europe

In the task linked to this deliverable our aim is to explore other KN also operating in the field of climate change adaptation but linked with emerging social movements and/or areas of activities where climate knowledge and information can play different roles and functions.

Second update of the D&C plan

A detailed communication and dissemination strategy will be written at the onset of the project. This is the second update of the communication and dissemination plan.

Guidelines for the blending methods

Guidelines for the blending methods: inconsistencies to address, reference quality metrics and target outputs. Unveiling inconsistencies between the different sets of predictions and projections

Interim report on clustering activities

Report giving mid-project status on the clustering activities established in order to facilitate efficient information flow, coordination with outside initiatives and support of DEC activities

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design process

Status report and results of the demonstrator’s co-design of the climate services to be further developed.

First update of the D&C plan

A detailed communication and dissemination strategy will be written at the onset of the project. This is the first update of the communication and dissemination plan.

Report on the initial evaluation of the new S2D systems

"In this report we will, based on the outcomes from task 2.1 ""Understanding limitations in current prediction systems"" and deliverable 2.1, implement advanced statistical and modeling approaches to improve prediction systems for Europe and other targeted regions in I4C."

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (3)

Communication, and dissemination strategy

Communication, and dissemination strategy including establishment of website and visual identity

Interim report on communication and dissemination activities

Interim report on communication and dissemination activities incl. Klimathons

Exploitation plan

The exploitation plan will contain concrete outcomes and updated throughout the project culminating in a final report including plans for beyond the project.

Data Management Plan (3)

First update of the DMP

The Data Management Plan (DMP) where delivered in M6 of the project and this is the first update of the DMP

Second update of the DMP

The Data Management Plan (DMP) where delivered in M6 of the project and this is the second update of the DMP

Data management plan, informed consent forms & info sheets

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (36)

<scp>EMBODYING AND RESISTING URBAN HEAT INJUSTICE</scp> : Migrant Vulnerabilities and Radical Adaptations in El Raval, Barcelona

Auteurs: Panagiota Kotsila, Valeria‐Carolin Cuenca, Manuel Franco, Lourenço Melo, Sam Pickard
Publié dans: International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Numéro 49, 2025, ISSN 0309-1317
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/1468-2427.13359

Unraveling the Complexity of Global Climate Dynamics: Interactions among El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and Tropical Basins Across Different Timescales

Auteurs: Hu, Aixue; Richter, Ingo; Okumura, Yuko; Burls, Natalie; Keenlyside, Noel; Parfitt, Rhys; Bellomo, Katinka; Bellucci, Alessio; Farneti, Riccardo; Fedorov, Alexey; Ferster, Brady; He, Chengfei; Li, Qian; Matei, Daniela
Publié dans: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2025, ISSN 2771-0378
Éditeur: Washington District of Columbia
DOI: 10.34133/OLAR.0096

Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR

Auteurs: Zanchettin, D; Fang, SW; Khodri, M; Omrani, NE; Rubinetti, S; Rubino, A; Timmreck, C; Jungclaus, JH
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06679-W

Framework for an Ocean‐Connected Supermodel of the Earth System

Auteurs: François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Shuo Wang, Marion Devilliers, Alok Gupta, Shunya Koseki, Mao‐Lin Shen
Publié dans: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numéro 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2022MS003310

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Auteurs: Elizabeth J. Kendon; Henry Addison; Antoine Doury; Samuel Somot; Peter A. G. Watson; Ben B. B. Booth; Erika Coppola; José Manuel Gutiérrez; James Murphy; Calum Scullion
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0114.1

Heat and Health in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area: Bringing together Researchers, Decision-Makers, and Public Engagement Experts

Auteurs: Sam Pickard, Dragana Bojovic, Mar Santamaria-Varas, Pablo Martínez Díez
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numéro 106, 2025, ISSN 0003-0007
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0135.1

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Auteurs: Sandro W. Lubis, Bryce E. Harrop, Jian Lu, L. Ruby Leung, Ziming Chen, Clare S. Y. Huang, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Numéro 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-1723
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-025-64672-9

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Auteurs: T. Carmo-Costa; R. Bilbao; J. Robson; A. Teles-Machado; A. Teles-Machado; P. Ortega
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-1001-2025

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Auteurs: Schevenhoven, F; Keenlyside, N.; Counillon, F.; Carrassi, A.; Chapman, W.E.; Devilliers, M.; Gupta, A.; Koseki, S.; Selten, F.M.; Shen, M.L.; Wang, S.; Weiss, J.B.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Wiegerinck, W.A.J.J.; Duane, G.S.
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2023, ISSN 0003-0007
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0070.1

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Auteurs: K. Xie; K. Xie; L. Li; H. Chen; H. Chen; S. Mayer; A. Dobler; C.-Y. Xu; O. M. Göktürk
Publié dans: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1027-5606
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-29-2133-2025

A hybrid statistical-dynamical method to translate past extreme temperature days into the future climate

Auteurs: Julien Boé, Margot Bador, Laurent Terray
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro 49, 2025, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.WACE.2025.100785

Predictability of Semiannual Atmospheric Circulation Type Frequencies in the Extratropics Using the EC‐Earth3 Decadal Forecasting System

Auteurs: S. Brands, E. Cimadevilla, J. Fernández
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL114176

Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

Auteurs: Terence J. O'Kane; Adam A. Scaife; Adam A. Scaife; Yochanan Kushnir; Anca Brookshaw; Carlo Buontempo; David Carlin; Richenda K. Connell; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Nick Dunstone; Kristian Förster; Kristian Förster; Antonio Graça; Alistair J. Hobday; Vassili Kitsios; Larissa van der Laan; Julia Lockwood; William J. Merryfield; Andreas Paxian; Mark R. Payne; M. Catherine Reader; Geoffrey R. Saville; Geoffrey R. Saville; Doug Smith; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Nico Caltabiano; Jessie Carman; Ed Hawkins; Noel Keenlyside; Arun Kumar; Daniela Matei; Holger Pohlmann; Scott Power; Scott Power; Marilyn Raphael; Michael Sparrow; Bo Wu
Publié dans: Frontiers in Climate, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Éditeur: Frontiers Media S.A.
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

On the suitability of a convolutional neural network based RCM-emulator for fine spatio-temporal precipitation

Auteurs: Doury, Antoine; Somot, Samuel; Gadat, Sebastien
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-3802128/V1

The Importance of Accounting for Stakeholder Values, Power Relationships and Language in Constructing Relevant and Trustworthy Climate Information

Auteurs: Douglas Maraun, Dragana Bojovic, Wendy Parker, Theodore G. Shepherd, Stefan Sobolowski, Cyril Caminade, Alessandro Dosio, William J. Gutowski, Anna Sörensson, Leandro B. Diaz, Ibrahima Diouf, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Valeria Hernández, Christopher Jack, Laura Pereira, Juan A. Rivera, Federico Robledo, Samuel Somot
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 14, 2026, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005618

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub‐Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Auteurs: Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, Daniel Krieger, Wolfgang A. Müller
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 52, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111895

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Auteurs: Baulenas, Eulàlia; Versteeg, Gerrit; Terrado, Marta; Mindlin, Julia; Bojovic, Dragana
Publié dans: Global Challenges, 2023, ISSN 2056-6646
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202200183

Transferability and explainability of deep learning emulators for regional climate model projections: Perspectives for future applications

Auteurs: Bano-Medina, Jorge; Iturbide, Maialen; Fernandez, Jesus; Gutierrez, Jose Manuel
Publié dans: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2023, ISSN 2769-7525
Éditeur: AMS
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.03378

Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research: The ARCPATH Project

Auteurs: Ogilvie, Astrid E. J.; King, Leslie A.; Keenlyside, Noel; Counillon, Francois; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Einarsson, Niels; Gulev, Sergey; Fan, Ke; Koenigk, Torben; Mcgoodwin, James R.; Rasmusson, Marianne H.; Yang, Shuting
Publié dans: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Numéro 41, 2024, ISSN 1861-9533
Éditeur: Springer Link
DOI: 10.1007/S00376-023-3333-X

Precipitation extremes in 2023

Auteurs: Fowler HJ; Blenkinsop S; Green A; Davies PA
Publié dans: Nature Reviews Earth &amp; Environment, 2024, ISSN 2662-138X
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S43017-024-00547-9

Environmental Research Letters

Auteurs: Rashed Mahmood*, Shuting Yang and Markus G Donat
Publié dans: Environ. Res. Lett., ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: nstitute of Physics and IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADDE75

The changing role of operational meteorology towards a transdisciplinary approach to future weather and climate services

Auteurs: Paul Davies; Hayley J. Fowler; Helen Roberts; Christopher J. White; Monica Youngman; David P. Rogers
Publié dans: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Éditeur: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0535

Future Local‐Scale Extreme Precipitation Changes in Norway: A Convection‐Permitting Climate Model Perspective

Auteurs: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Stefan P. Sobolowski; Chong‐Yu Xu
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2025, ISSN 2169-8996
Éditeur: AGU
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042899

Hybrid covariance super-resolution data assimilation

Auteurs: Sébastien Barthélémy; Julien Brajard; Laurent Bertino; François Counillon
Publié dans: Ocean Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1616-7228
Éditeur: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4454996/V1

GCM Selection and Ensemble Design: Best Practices and Recommendations from the EURO-CORDEX Community

Auteurs: Stefan Sobolowski; Samuel Somot; Jesus Fernandez; Guillaume Evin; Swen Brands; Douglas Maraun; Sven Kotlarski; Martin Jury; Rasmus E. Benestad; Claas Teichmann; Ole B. Christensen; Katharina Bülow; Erasmo Buonomo; Eleni Katragkou; Christian Steger; Silje Sørland; Grigory Nikulin; Carol McSweeney; Andreas Dobler; Tamzin Palmer; Renate Wilcke; Julien Boé; Lukas Brunner; Aurélien Ribes; Said Qasmi; Pierre Nabat; Florence Sevault; Thomas Oudar
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2025, ISSN 1520-0477
Éditeur: American Meteoroligical Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0189.1

Enhanced Evaluation of Sub-daily and Daily Extreme Precipitation in Norway from Convection-Permitting Models at Regional and Local Scales

Auteurs: Kun Xie; Lu Li; Hua Chen; Stephanie Mayer; Andreas Dobler; Chong-Yu Xu; Ozan Mert Gokturk
Publié dans: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2024, ISSN 1607-7938
Éditeur: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-2024-68

ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability

Auteurs: Martin P. King; Noel Keenlyside; Camille Li
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: SpringerLink
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-023-06697-8

When the sun goes down, heat vulnerability remains

Auteurs: Jiayang Hu, Florence Gignac, Sam Pickard, Paloma Trascasa Castro, Eren Duzenli, Dragana Bojovic
Publié dans: City and Environment Interactions, Numéro 29, 2026, ISSN 2590-2520
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.CACINT.2025.100284

Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change

Auteurs: Orr, Harriet G.; Hall, Caitlyn A.; Rhodes, Vicki; Wilby, Rob L.; Peat, Katy L.; Fowler, Hayley J.
Publié dans: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1471-2962
Éditeur: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSTA.2024.0290

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

Auteurs: Cécile Caillaud, Samuel Somot, Hervé Douville, Antoinette Alias, Sophie Bastin, Susanne Brienen, Marie-Estelle Demory, Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Thomas Frisius, Klaus Goergen, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Klaus Keuler, Geert Lenderink, Paola Mercogliano,
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro Volume 51, Numéro 6, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Éditeur: Advancing Earth and Space Sciences
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105143

Assessing the performance of convection-permitting climate model in reproducing basin-scale hydrological extremes: A western Norway case study

Auteurs: Kun Xie, Lu Li, Hua Chen, Chong-Yu Xu
Publié dans: Journal of Hydrology, Numéro 656, 2025, ISSN 0022-1694
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2025.132989

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Auteurs: Sebastien Barthelemy; Francois Counillon; Yiguo Wang
Publié dans: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2024, ISSN 1942-2466
Éditeur: Wiley-Blackwell
DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003888

Implementation and validation of a supermodeling framework into Community Earth System Model version 2.1.5

Auteurs: William E. Chapman, Francine Schevenhoven, Judith Berner, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Ping-Gin Chiu, Alok Gupta, Jesse Nusbaumer
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, Numéro 18, 2026, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-18-5451-2025

Urban Climate

Auteurs: Langendijk, Gaby; Halenka, Tomas; Hoffmann, Peter; Adinolfi, Marianna; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Asselin, Olivier; Bastin, Sophie; Bechtel, Benjamin; Belda, Michal; Bushenkova, Angelina; Campanale, Angelo; Chun, Kwok Pan; Constantinidou, Katiana; Coppola, Erika; Demuzere, Matthias; Doan, Quang-Van; Evans, Jason; Feldmann, Hendrik; Fernandez, Jesus; Fita, Lluís; Hadjinicolaou, Panos; Hamdi, Rafiq; Hundhausen, Marie; Grawe, David; Johannsen, Frederico; Milovac, Josipa; Katragkou, Eleni; El Islam Kerroumi, Nour; Kotlarski, Sven; Le Roy, Benjamin Guillaume; Lemonsu, Aude; Lennard, Christopher; Lipson, Mathew; Mandal, Shailendra; Muñoz Pabón, Luís; Pavlidis, Vassileios; Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka; Raffa, Mario; Raluy-López, Eloisa; Rechid, Diana; Ito, Rui; Schulz, Jan-Peter; Soares, Pedro; Takane, Yuya; Teichmann, Claas; Thatcher, Marcus; Top, Sara; van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Wang, Fuxing; Yuan, Jiacan
Publié dans: Urban Climate, 2024, ISSN 2212-0955
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.4846089

More extreme summertime North Atlantic Oscillation under climate change

Auteurs: Quan Liu, Jürgen Bader, Johann H. Jungclaus, Daniela Matei
Publié dans: Communications Earth &amp; Environment, Numéro 6, 2025, ISSN 2662-4435
Éditeur: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-025-02422-X

The signature of the main modes of climatic variability as revealed by the Jenkinson‐Collison classification over Europe

Auteurs: Juan A. Fernández‐Granja; Joaquín Bedia; Ana Casanueva; Swen Brands; Jesús Fernández
Publié dans: International Journal of Climatology, Numéro 44, 2024, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.8569