Periodic Reporting for period 1 - FutuRes (Towards a Resilient Future of Europe)
Berichtszeitraum: 2023-02-01 bis 2024-01-31
With low fertility rates and increased longevity, the age distribution of European populations is undergoing rapid change. Ageing has wide-ranging impacts on various aspects of society. However, significant social inequalities exist in the aging process, with variations observed in labor force participation, wellbeing, and health outcomes based on factors such as gender and socioeconomic status.
While aging is relatively predictable from a demographic standpoint, the socioeconomic landscape surrounding it is highly uncertain. Europe has faced numerous crises in the past two decades, including the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, the European debt crisis beginning in 2010, the migration crisis of 2015/16, the recent Covid pandemic, war and cost of living, and the ongoing environmental challenges whose outcomes are difficult to foresee. Moreover, consumers and citizens are experiencing rapid technological advancements, automation, and the digitalization - all of which are reshaping social communication and services, adding further complexity to the socioeconomic context surrounding aging.
The dynamics of aging in European societies and our era of escalating crises are the two cornerstones of this project. Firstly, social inequalities in old age are heavily influenced by circumstances and choices made throughout the lifespan, as well as by stereotypical assumptions, expectations, and beliefs about older people, and ageing. Therefore, ageing must be viewed through a life course approach. Additionally, the health, family, and occupational status of older age groups change with improved conditions and extended life expectancy (cohort effects). Instead of focusing exclusively on ageing policies such as pensions or healthcare, future policies must now adopt a life course perspective.
Secondly, given the inevitability of crises and inherent uncertainties, new policies – as well as revisions of existing ones – should prioritize resilience enhancement. They should empower both citizens and service providers to cope with and adapt to whatever the next shock may be. Emphasizing resilience entails proactive planning, adaptability, flexibility, and where possible, prevention, rather than relying solely on reactive solutions to challenges related to population aging. By integrating both a life course perspective and resilience, this project aims to identify ways in which policies can be improved to ensure that individuals of all ages are better prepared for crises and unexpected shocks.
The mission of FutuRes is to advance the concept of a resilient life course as a framework for designing policies that bolster resilience in an aging Europe. Through a science-to-policy approach, it will create an interactive and participatory Policy Lab. Here, scientists, policymakers and stakeholders can convene to exchange ideas, engage in discussions, and contribute to building a more resilient Europe.
To do this, FutuRes implements sophisticated statistical models as a means to describe and understand complex feedback mechanism between policies and population processes. At the same time, the project implements a transdisciplinary Policy Lab, serving as a collaborative platform for decision-makers from research, politics, business, and civil society. With these two pillars taken together, FutuRes develops evidence-informed solutions based on project results, thereby facilitating the implementation of proposed policies and ensuring a lasting impact.
While aging is relatively predictable from a demographic standpoint, the socioeconomic landscape surrounding it is highly uncertain. Europe has faced numerous crises in the past two decades, including the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, the European debt crisis beginning in 2010, the migration crisis of 2015/16, the recent Covid pandemic, war and cost of living, and the ongoing environmental challenges whose outcomes are difficult to foresee. Moreover, consumers and citizens are experiencing rapid technological advancements, automation, and the digitalization - all of which are reshaping social communication and services, adding further complexity to the socioeconomic context surrounding aging.
The dynamics of aging in European societies and our era of escalating crises are the two cornerstones of this project. Firstly, social inequalities in old age are heavily influenced by circumstances and choices made throughout the lifespan, as well as by stereotypical assumptions, expectations, and beliefs about older people, and ageing. Therefore, ageing must be viewed through a life course approach. Additionally, the health, family, and occupational status of older age groups change with improved conditions and extended life expectancy (cohort effects). Instead of focusing exclusively on ageing policies such as pensions or healthcare, future policies must now adopt a life course perspective.
Secondly, given the inevitability of crises and inherent uncertainties, new policies – as well as revisions of existing ones – should prioritize resilience enhancement. They should empower both citizens and service providers to cope with and adapt to whatever the next shock may be. Emphasizing resilience entails proactive planning, adaptability, flexibility, and where possible, prevention, rather than relying solely on reactive solutions to challenges related to population aging. By integrating both a life course perspective and resilience, this project aims to identify ways in which policies can be improved to ensure that individuals of all ages are better prepared for crises and unexpected shocks.
The mission of FutuRes is to advance the concept of a resilient life course as a framework for designing policies that bolster resilience in an aging Europe. Through a science-to-policy approach, it will create an interactive and participatory Policy Lab. Here, scientists, policymakers and stakeholders can convene to exchange ideas, engage in discussions, and contribute to building a more resilient Europe.
To do this, FutuRes implements sophisticated statistical models as a means to describe and understand complex feedback mechanism between policies and population processes. At the same time, the project implements a transdisciplinary Policy Lab, serving as a collaborative platform for decision-makers from research, politics, business, and civil society. With these two pillars taken together, FutuRes develops evidence-informed solutions based on project results, thereby facilitating the implementation of proposed policies and ensuring a lasting impact.
In its inaugural year, the FutuRes Consortium focused on defining and refining conceptual frameworks for resilience and the life-course perspective on ageing. The methodological groundwork is now well underway. In particular, one work package focus exclusively on the drivers behind ageing, whereas another deals with the issues of migration. Drawing on inputs from these two work packages, the Consortium is developing a general equilibrium model that links generational life cycles to macroeconomic dynamics and institutional constraints.
In summary, the following specific objectives are being pursued:
1. Conceptualizing resilience in the context of population ageing from a life-course perspective
2. Assessing the role of fertility and childbearing decisions in resilient life-course trajectories within aging societies.
3. Laying the groundwork for a dynamic general equilibrium model capable of analyzing the impacts of aging populations on socio-economic factors.
4. Collecting data to construct a framework for scenario analysis regarding the future of European population ageing.
5. Establishing the FutuRes collaborative policy lab to engage stakeholders in developing resilient policy recommendations to combat ageism.
6. Disseminating FutuRes findings and policy recommendations to a wider audience through various events and activities, including a high-level policy expert meetings, as well as public stakeholder dialogue events.
In summary, the following specific objectives are being pursued:
1. Conceptualizing resilience in the context of population ageing from a life-course perspective
2. Assessing the role of fertility and childbearing decisions in resilient life-course trajectories within aging societies.
3. Laying the groundwork for a dynamic general equilibrium model capable of analyzing the impacts of aging populations on socio-economic factors.
4. Collecting data to construct a framework for scenario analysis regarding the future of European population ageing.
5. Establishing the FutuRes collaborative policy lab to engage stakeholders in developing resilient policy recommendations to combat ageism.
6. Disseminating FutuRes findings and policy recommendations to a wider audience through various events and activities, including a high-level policy expert meetings, as well as public stakeholder dialogue events.
This point is not directly applicable. As described in the proposal, this would be a too early stage to state a set of established results – and its impact. What the project has done though, is to establish the FutuRes policy lab, and here we have made strong efforts in communicating with stakeholders and policy makers. Through webinars, policy briefs and insights, and meetings with the EU commission, we have certainly managed to put resilience and life-course on the agenda, and we are of the opinion that there is now much stronger awareness about the drivers behind ageing, and the meaning of resilience.