Probabilistic decision framework for Resilience assessment of Offshore energy infrastructures subjected to seismic Submarine landsLIDE hazard (PRO-SLIDE)

Projektinformationen

PRO-SLIDE

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 101106129

DOI

10.3030/101106129

Projekt abgeschlossen

EK-Unterschriftsdatum 25 Juli 2023

Startdatum 1 Dezember 2023

Enddatum 30 November 2025

Finanziert unter

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Gesamtkosten

Keine Daten

EU-Beitrag

€ 214 934,40

Koordiniert durch

AALBORG UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - PRO-SLIDE (Probabilistic decision framework for Resilience assessment of Offshore energy infrastructures subjected to seismic Submarine landsLIDE hazard (PRO-SLIDE))

Berichtszeitraum: 2023-12-01 bis 2025-11-30

Zusammenfassung vom Kontext und den Gesamtzielen des Projekts

Offshore energy infrastructure (OEI) plays a central role in the EU’s energy transition strategy. As offshore wind and other marine energy systems expand into deeper waters and sloping seabeds, their exposure to geohazards such as seismic submarine landslides (SSLs) increases. These hazards can induce large permanent seabed deformations, excess pore water pressure generation, and progressive failure mechanisms that are not adequately captured by current design and assessment approaches.
Existing methods for evaluating OEI performance under SSLs are either overly conservative (pseudo-static approaches) or computationally demanding and impractical for routine engineering applications. This limits the ability of designers and decision-makers to perform efficient, risk-informed assessments and may lead to either unsafe designs or unnecessary overdesign.
The overall objective of PRO-SLIDE is to develop a reliable and low-computational-cost framework for simplified resilience and damage assessment of offshore energy infrastructure subjected to submarine landslides. The project bridges the gap between simplified and advanced numerical methods by extracting physically meaningful insights from calibrated numerical and centrifuge-based models and translating them into predictive and probabilistic tools.
PRO-SLIDE integrates numerical modelling, benchmark centrifuge testing, data-driven prediction, and fragility analysis to quantify OEI deformation and damage probability under submarine landslide hazards. The expected outcomes include simplified predictive models and fragility curves that support early-stage design, screening-level hazard assessment, and performance-based decision-making. By reducing uncertainty while maintaining physical realism, the project contributes to safer, more cost-effective, and resilient offshore energy systems, aligned with EU priorities on sustainable energy infrastructure and climate resilience.

Arbeit, die ab Beginn des Projekts bis zum Ende des durch den Bericht erfassten Berichtszeitraums geleistet wurde, und die wichtigsten bis dahin erzielten Ergebnisse

The project implemented an integrated experimental–numerical–data-driven workflow to assess the response of submarine slopes and offshore energy infrastructure under seismic and long-term infiltration loading. These outcomes provide a coherent framework linking seismic demand, seabed response, and OEI performance.
Key scientific and technical achievements include:
• Identification of optimal seismic intensity measures governing SSL-induced slope deformation under near-field ground motions.
• Development of predictive models for submarine slope displacement using regression- and machine-learning-based approaches.
• Establishment of probabilistic and fragility-based frameworks incorporating pore water pressure effects.
• Development of a displacement-based performance assessment methodology for monopile-supported offshore wind turbines.
• Definition of offshore wind turbine damage states directly linked to seabed and slope deformation.
• Preparation and use of benchmark centrifuge tests to investigate coupled soil–slope–structure interaction and dominant failure mechanisms.

Fortschritte, die über den aktuellen Stand der Technik hinausgehen und voraussichtliche potenzielle Auswirkungen (einschließlich der bis dato erzielten sozioökonomischen Auswirkungen und weiter gefassten gesellschaftlichen Auswirkungen des Projekts)

PRO-SLIDE advances the state of the art by moving beyond simplified assessment approaches that neglect the impact of submarine slope displacement on offshore wind turbines and ignore key physical mechanisms such as excess pore water pressure generation. Further uptake of the results would benefit from site-scale demonstration studies, integration into offshore design and assessment workflows, and alignment with emerging standards for performance-based and risk-informed offshore geotechnical design.