Periodic Reporting for period 1 - SEA-LIMITHS (Sea Level Rise Impacts on Italian Hospitality)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2023-06-01 al 2025-05-31
Climate change poses unprecedented threats to Europe's coastal regions, with the Mediterranean particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events. Italy's coastal tourism sector, contributing significantly to national GDP and employing millions, faces escalating risks from coastal flooding and erosion. Despite tourism's economic importance, comprehensive assessments of sea level rise impacts on coastal hospitality infrastructure remain critically absent.
SEA-LIMITHS (Sea Level Rise Impacts on Italian Hospitality) develops the first integrated evaluation framework for climate risks to coastal tourism infrastructure. Focusing on Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, regions hosting Venice and the Adriatic Riviera, the project quantifies economic vulnerabilities and informs evidence-based adaptation strategies. The interdisciplinary approach combines environmental science, economics, and artificial intelligence to map over 10,000 hospitality establishments, calculate flood damages under future climate scenarios, and assess economy-wide impacts through computable general equilibrium modelling.
The project directly supports the European Green Deal and EU Adaptation Strategy by protecting tourism-dependent coastal communities. Given that coastal regions generate 40% of European tourism revenue, the project's impact pathway extends from local business resilience to European economic competitiveness.
SEA-LIMITHS (Sea Level Rise Impacts on Italian Hospitality) develops the first integrated evaluation framework for climate risks to coastal tourism infrastructure. Focusing on Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, regions hosting Venice and the Adriatic Riviera, the project quantifies economic vulnerabilities and informs evidence-based adaptation strategies. The interdisciplinary approach combines environmental science, economics, and artificial intelligence to map over 10,000 hospitality establishments, calculate flood damages under future climate scenarios, and assess economy-wide impacts through computable general equilibrium modelling.
The project directly supports the European Green Deal and EU Adaptation Strategy by protecting tourism-dependent coastal communities. Given that coastal regions generate 40% of European tourism revenue, the project's impact pathway extends from local business resilience to European economic competitiveness.
The project successfully developed a comprehensive geospatial database integrating 10,022 hospitality establishments (5,030 accommodations, 4,992 tourism businesses) with high-resolution climate vulnerability data. Using AI-driven web scraping and machine learning techniques, establishment characteristics were matched with flood exposure metrics from the Adriatic Sea Climate (AdriSC) model.
Key technical achievements include: (1) Creation of multi-floor damage functions capturing both direct infrastructure losses and business interruption costs; (2) Integration of storm surge modelling with sea level rise projections for compound flood risk assessment; (3) Development of sector-specific vulnerability indicators accounting for seasonal occupancy patterns and coastal proximity; (4) Implementation of CGE modeling revealing economy-wide multiplier effects averaging 50-fold amplification of direct damages.
The economic assessment reveals Expected Annual Damages of €21.3 million for Veneto and €12.4 million for Emilia-Romagna under end-of-century scenarios. Critically, indirect business interruption losses constitute 55% of total damages, highlighting the importance of operational resilience beyond physical protection measures.
Key technical achievements include: (1) Creation of multi-floor damage functions capturing both direct infrastructure losses and business interruption costs; (2) Integration of storm surge modelling with sea level rise projections for compound flood risk assessment; (3) Development of sector-specific vulnerability indicators accounting for seasonal occupancy patterns and coastal proximity; (4) Implementation of CGE modeling revealing economy-wide multiplier effects averaging 50-fold amplification of direct damages.
The economic assessment reveals Expected Annual Damages of €21.3 million for Veneto and €12.4 million for Emilia-Romagna under end-of-century scenarios. Critically, indirect business interruption losses constitute 55% of total damages, highlighting the importance of operational resilience beyond physical protection measures.
SEA-LIMITHS advances climate risk assessment through unprecedented granularity in hospitality sector analysis. While previous studies relied on aggregated land-use categories, this project's establishment-level approach captures the heterogeneity of coastal tourism infrastructure (from luxury resorts to family-run restaurants). The integration of high-resolution climate modelling (AdriSC) with AI-driven infrastructure mapping represents a methodological breakthrough applicable across Mediterranean coastal regions.
The open-access database (Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14929876) and documented methodology enable replication and scaling. Key needs for further uptake include: (1) Extension to additional coastal regions requiring local partnerships for data validation; (2) Integration with real-time monitoring systems for operational early warning; (3) Development of decision-support tools translating risk metrics into business-specific adaptation guidance; (4) Regulatory frameworks incentivizing proactive adaptation investments; (5) Financial mechanisms supporting small hospitality businesses in implementing resilience measures.
The open-access database (Zenodo DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14929876) and documented methodology enable replication and scaling. Key needs for further uptake include: (1) Extension to additional coastal regions requiring local partnerships for data validation; (2) Integration with real-time monitoring systems for operational early warning; (3) Development of decision-support tools translating risk metrics into business-specific adaptation guidance; (4) Regulatory frameworks incentivizing proactive adaptation investments; (5) Financial mechanisms supporting small hospitality businesses in implementing resilience measures.