Descripción del proyecto
Cómo predecir y mitigar las catástrofes causadas por inundaciones
Los patrones erráticos de precipitaciones alimentados por el cambio climático suponen una amenaza para nuestros sistemas sociales, ecológicos y económicos. Las inundaciones extremas acechan más que nunca, ya que las incertidumbres en las previsiones de precipitaciones regionales, especialmente en el Mediterráneo, dificultan las iniciativas de predicción, dejándonos desprevenidos para hacer frente a la furia de la naturaleza. Con el apoyo de las acciones Marie Skłodowska-Curie, el equipo del proyecto MODKARST aprovechará las estalagmitas como archivos geológicos para crear una completa base de datos sobre inundaciones en el Mediterráneo occidental que abarque milenios. Al descifrar las inundaciones del pasado a través de capas detríticas y sofisticados modelos, en MODKARST se esclarecerá la intrincada relación entre los cambios climáticos y la recurrencia de las inundaciones, forjando un camino para predecir mejor y hacer frente a las inundaciones actuales inducidas por el calentamiento global.
Objetivo
Changes in rainfall patterns are a direct consequence of the current climate change. Climate projections indicate an intensification of extreme rainfall events (and floods), which will directly affect social, ecological, and economic systems. Thus, one of the greatest challenges of climate science is to understand, model, and predict the variability of floods both in temporal and spatial terms in the context of the present-day global warming. Nevertheless, the uncertainties in projected rainfall at regional scale are still high, and even higher in Mediterranean areas where the climate is characterized by extreme and sudden rainfall events. The instrumental record is too short to correctly estimate return floods periods. Thus, geological records are required to better understand the long-term variability, at millennial to decadal scales, of natural extreme flood events. Among the most important flood archives, including riverine and lake sediments, stalagmites represent one of the best geological records (i.e. accurate chronology, wide temporal range and good preservation) to study past flood frequency. However, stalagmites have not yet been properly exploited for this purpose. MODKARST will provide a unique opportunity to develop a quantitative flood database for the Western Mediterranean realm based on speleothems. To do so, the action plans to infer past flood events from the last 18,000 years based on detrital layers (indicative of flood events) recorded in stalagmites from 5 different caves. This data in combination with karst hydraulic models and water-level monitoring will allow to quantify past extreme flood events. MODKARST will help to better understand the relation among flood recurrence and climate changes, and will shed light on how to better predict the variability of floods in the context of present-day global warming.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-GF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - Global FellowshipsCoordinador
28006 Madrid
España