Description du projet
Dévoiler les points de basculement de la Terre pour préparer la société
Les points de basculement se retrouvent à la limite de l'instabilité écologique. Il s'agit de seuils critiques dans le système terrestre où d’infimes changements peuvent avoir des conséquences irréversibles et catastrophiques. Dans ce contexte, le projet TipESM, financé par l'UE, rassemble une équipe de scientifiques de tous bords pour étudier ces points de basculement. Grâce à des modèles de système terrestre de pointe, cette collaboration internationale apporte une bouffée d'espoir face aux défis climatiques imminents. Plus précisément, le projet se propose de développer des indicateurs d'alerte précoce et des voies d'émission permettant d'atténuer le risque de franchissement de ces seuils critiques. TipESM se penche sur des processus essentiels tels que les calottes glaciaires, la végétation et la biogéochimie marine. Le projet élabore un registre des risques liés aux points de basculement, pour une société mieux informée et mieux préparée.
Objectif
TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.
TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry. In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realise a common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tipping elements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESM experiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existing simulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascading effects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will also allow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts.
TipESM brings together expertise from climate science and climate impacts to investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society, and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesised into a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of research communities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.
Champ scientifique
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeochemistrybiogeochemistry
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Programme(s)
Régime de financement
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinateur
2100 KOBENHAVN
Danemark