Descrizione del progetto
Svelare i punti di non ritorno della Terra per preparare la società
Sul baratro dell’instabilità ecologica si trovano i punti di non ritorno. Si tratta di soglie critiche nel sistema Terra, dove piccoli cambiamenti possono portare a conseguenze irreversibili e catastrofiche. In questo contesto, il progetto TipESM, finanziato dall’UE, riunisce un gruppo eterogeneo di scienziati per studiare questi punti di non ritorno. Utilizzando modelli del sistema terrestre all’avanguardia, questa collaborazione internazionale offre una speranza di fronte alle sfide climatiche imminenti. In particolare, il progetto intende sperimentare indicatori di allarme precoce e percorsi di emissione che attenuino il rischio di superare queste soglie pericolose. TipESM esamina processi critici come le calotte glaciali, la vegetazione e la biogeochimica marina. Sviluppando un registro del rischio dei punti di non ritorno, il progetto promette una società più informata e preparata.
Obiettivo
TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.
TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry. In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realise a common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tipping elements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESM experiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existing simulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascading effects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will also allow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts.
TipESM brings together expertise from climate science and climate impacts to investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society, and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesised into a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of research communities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.
Campo scientifico
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeochemistrybiogeochemistry
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinatore
2100 KOBENHAVN
Danimarca