Descripción del proyecto
Desvelar los puntos de inflexión de la Tierra para preparar a la sociedad
En el precipicio de la inestabilidad ecológica se encuentran los puntos de inflexión. Se trata de umbrales críticos del sistema terrestre donde pequeños cambios pueden tener consecuencias irreversibles y catastróficas. En este contexto, el equipo del proyecto TipESM, financiado con fondos europeos, reúne a un variado equipo de científicos para estudiar estos puntos de inflexión. A través de modelos del sistema terrestre de última generación, esta colaboración internacional ofrece esperanza ante los inminentes desafíos climáticos. En concreto, el equipo del proyecto pretende ser pionero en indicadores de alerta temprana y vías de emisión que mitiguen el riesgo de cruzar estos peligrosos umbrales. El equipo de TipESM examina procesos críticos como las capas de hielo, la vegetación y la biogeoquímica marina. Al elaborar un registro de riesgos de puntos de inflexión, el equipo del proyecto promete una sociedad más informada y preparada.
Objetivo
TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.
TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry. In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realise a common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tipping elements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESM experiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existing simulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascading effects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will also allow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts.
TipESM brings together expertise from climate science and climate impacts to investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society, and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesised into a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of research communities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.
Ámbito científico
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeochemistrybiogeochemistry
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsCoordinador
2100 KOBENHAVN
Dinamarca