Projektbeschreibung
Kipppunkte der Erde zur Vorbereitung der Gesellschaft offenbaren
An der Schwelle der ökologischen Instabilität liegen Kipppunkte. Dabei handelt es sich um kritische Schwellenwerte im Erdsystem, bei denen kleine Veränderungen zu unumkehrbaren und katastrophalen Folgen führen können. In diesem Zusammenhang wird im EU-finanzierten Projekt TipESM ein vielfältiges wissenschaftliches Team vereint, um diese Kipppunkte zu untersuchen. Mithilfe modernster Erdsystemmodelle bietet diese internationale Zusammenarbeit Hoffnung angesichts der bevorstehenden klimatischen Herausforderungen. Konkretes Projektziel ist es, Frühwarnindikatoren und Emissionspfade zu erarbeiten, die das Risiko des Überschreitens dieser gefährlichen Schwellenwerte mindern. TipESM analysiert kritische Prozesse wie Eisschilde, Vegetation und marine Biogeochemie. Durch die Entwicklung eines Risikoregisters für Kipppunkte verspricht das Projekt eine besser informierte und vorbereitete Gesellschaft.
Ziel
TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping points in the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe future emission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points.
TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs), including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry. In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realise a common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tipping elements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESM experiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existing simulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascading effects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will also allow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts.
TipESM brings together expertise from climate science and climate impacts to investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society, and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesised into a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of research communities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeochemistrybiogeochemistry
Schlüsselbegriffe
Programm/Programme
Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung
Andere Projekte für diesen Aufruf anzeigenFinanzierungsplan
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation ActionsKoordinator
2100 KOBENHAVN
Dänemark