Multidimensional Transition Pathway Analysis for Sustainable Futures: Exploring Alternative Paradigms and Broadening Policy Options through Innovative Scenario Development

Informazioni relative al progetto

MultiFutures

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101137713

DOI

10.3030/101137713

Data della firma CE 24 Ottobre 2023

Data di avvio 1 Gennaio 2024

Data di completamento 30 Giugno 2027

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 4 545 590,00

Contributo UE

€ 4 545 590,00

Coordinato da

ENERGIEINSTITUT AN DER JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITAT LINZ VEREIN
Austria

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MultiFutures (Multidimensional Transition Pathway Analysis for Sustainable Futures: Exploring Alternative Paradigms and Broadening Policy Options through Innovative Scenario Development)

Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-01-01 al 2025-06-30

Sintesi del contesto e degli obiettivi generali del progetto

The EU aims to cut net GHG emissions by ≥55% by 2030 and reach climate-neutrality by 2050. While the European Green Deal, Fit for 55, the Net-Zero Industry Act and the Circular Economy Action Plan have accelerated progress, gaps remain in policy options and in managing systemic trade-offs—partly because GDP still dominates how success is measured, sidelining well-being, equity and ecological limits. MultiFutures broadens the scope of policy action by developing and evaluating transition scenarios that embed alternative economic paradigms and beyond-GDP indicators. Overall objectives are to: (i) map and compare paradigms; (ii) co-create visions of sustainable and equitable futures with citizens, policymakers, businesses and researchers; (iii) design policy pathways capable of delivering those visions; and (iv) provide robust, model-based evidence of likely impacts in Europe and beyond. The pathway to impact proceeds in four steps: (1) paradigm mapping using AI-assisted and qualitative methods; (2) scenario building with beyond-GDP metrics; (3) stakeholder engagement, including a large citizen survey (>18,000) and workshops in and beyond the EU; and (4) integrated modelling and assessment linking economic, environmental, technological and social outcomes, with justice and equity lenses. Social sciences and humanities are central (critical discourse analysis, participatory design, survey research, feasibility assessment), ensuring policy relevance and societal legitimacy. Expected impacts include policy-ready recommendations that strengthen the EU’s ability to reach climate-neutrality while improving resilience, equity and well-being; openly shared outputs via the project’s online platform; and contributions to international assessments.

Lavoro eseguito dall’inizio del progetto fino alla fine del periodo coperto dalla relazione e principali risultati finora ottenuti

In the first 18 months, the consortium built the project’s scientific backbone and moved from scoping to implementation. It first completed a global and EU-focused taxonomy of alternative economic paradigms and a comparative analysis against EU guiding principles, using multi-country cases to show opportunities and bottlenecks. These insights were translated into modelling inputs: a transparent assumptions inventory, causal diagrams for key policy levers (e.g. carbon taxation, education, housing, mobility, basic income), and five coherent narratives. In parallel, the large-scale citizen survey was initiated: a first draft based on more than 200 studies is under iterative refinement with hypotheses being formalised. To widen perspectives, a non-EU expert workshop with 17 participants was conducted and a second is designed; an open research workshop informed a first paper on emerging research questions. Policy design advanced with an annotated matrix of instruments (environmental component complete, social policies next) and a structured coherence check of the EU policy mix. Agreed baselines (EU Reference Scenario 2020 and updated UN NDCs) and shared interfaces/templates now support translation from narratives to modelling-ready policy definitions. The modelling architecture is in place: drivers are defined; qualitative-to-quantitative templates and a common classification/interface created; OECD well-being indicators selected; an attribution tool maps indicators to models; and inter-model input–output matrices underpin new links and model upgrades, including energy–economy soft-links, macro extensions and household heterogeneity. Finally, a harmonised framework was launched to channel modelling results into impact assessment, with preparatory work for a Multidimensional Feasibility Assessment well underway.

Progressi oltre lo stato dell’arte e potenziale impatto previsto (incluso l’impatto socioeconomico e le implicazioni sociali più ampie del progetto fino ad ora)

What problem does the project address?
Europe’s green transition needs policy options that deliver climate-neutrality while advancing well-being, equity and planetary boundaries. Relying on GDP alone obscures trade-offs and narrows the solution space.

What is new?
The project creates a comprehensive map of alternative economic paradigms and turns these into policy-relevant scenarios assessed with beyond-GDP indicators. It combines social-science methods (e.g. discourse analysis, participatory workshops, survey research) with advanced modelling across economics, energy, land use and labour to evaluate how policy mixes perform for people and the planet. A publicly accessible knowledge pathway—from paradigm taxonomy to scenarios, a structured policy matrix and an integrated indicator framework—supports transparent, reproducible analysis.

Key results to date
• A taxonomy of paradigms and a comparative analysis vis-à-vis EU principles reveal opportunities to align technology, social policy and governance.
• A scenario suite documents assumptions and causal chains for policy levers (e.g. carbon pricing, sufficiency measures, redistribution, working time, local economies).
• A policy matrix identifies instruments across domains and links them to paradigm-consistent pathways; a coherence check of the EU policy mix is underway.
• A well-being indicator framework (based on established international metrics) and a model-to-indicator attribution tool enable consistent assessment of distributional and resilience outcomes.
• Inter-model interfaces and input-output mappings allow energy-economy-society feedbacks to be explored consistently.
• Stakeholder engagement progresses via non-EU expert workshops and the design of a large-scale EU citizen survey.

Who benefits and how?
Policymakers gain policy-ready options that reduce trade-offs and broaden strategies beyond GDP. Researchers access documented assumptions, interfaces and indicators to replicate and extend analyses. Civil society benefits from co-created futures and transparent evidence about distributional effects.

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