Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CARMINE (Climate-Resilient Development Pathways in Metropolitan Regions of Europe)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-02-01 al 2025-07-31
Metropolitan Regions of Europe are increasingly exposed to climate-related hazards such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts, wildfires, and water scarcity. These risks interact with rapid urbanisation, social inequalities, and fragmented governance, threatening health, ecosystems, and economic stability. The capacity of metropolitan areas to adapt is pivotal for achieving the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change and the European Green Deal. The CARMINE project responds by co-developing climate-resilient pathways that integrate science, policy, and society. Its overarching goal is to help metropolitan communities become more resilient by providing knowledge-based tools, strategies, and frameworks for adaptation and mitigation. CARMINE’s objectives include: advancing the climate knowledge base; developing high-resolution risk assessment models linking climate, earth system and socio-economic drivers; co-producing frameworks through Living Labs (LLs) and Digital Twins (DTs); delivering Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS); and creating research and innovation roadmaps for governance and cross-sectoral planning. Eight Living Labs serve as arenas for participatory co-design, engaging communities, policymakers, industry, and researchers. The Stakeholder Community Hub (SC-Hub) extends engagement digitally, while DTs (e.g. DT-HEAT) and IDSS prototypes make complex data accessible and actionable. Social sciences and humanities ensure resilience pathways address behavioural, institutional, and equity dimensions alongside technical innovation. CARMINE provides transferable solutions aligned with Destination Earth and Climate-ADAPT. Expected impacts include stronger disaster preparedness, cost-effective and nature-based adaptation, and evidence-based policy roadmaps, enhancing resilience in case study regions, with benefits scalable across Europe.
CARMINE has advanced the scientific and technical foundation for climate-resilient development pathways in European metropolitan regions. SO1 achieved significant progress by establishing a systematic framework through eight LLs, delivering a comprehensive climate knowledge base, and launching the Stakeholder Community Hub (SC-Hub). These outputs support participatory identification of risks, barriers, and NbS pathways. SO2 progressed with the creation of a harmonised modelling framework for multi-hazard climate risk analysis across all CSAs. Local Climate Zone datasets were extracted, hazard indicators computed, and downscaling protocols initiated. Early models address wildfires (Barcelona), urban flooding and heat (Brașov, Birmingham), and water scarcity (Brașov). Tools such as PALM-meteo are enabling very high-resolution simulations, with results stored in shared repositories. Technical integration is advancing, though cross-CSA validation is ongoing. SO3 combined participatory engagement and modelling through LLs and DTs. Workshops mapped key risks and measures, while DT prototypes were launched, including DT-HEAT (Athens, Prague) onboarded on DestinE and DT-Flood Risk (Odense). Early-stage DTs for Bologna, Brașov, Barcelona, Birmingham, and Leipzig are in development, supported by a drafted Federated Data Management System architecture. SO4 delivered the first prototype of the Impact-Based Decision Support Service (IDSS), with modular architecture and a customised MetX interface for interactive maps and dashboards. Successful ingestion of satellite, in-situ, and model data was demonstrated, and stakeholder validation initiated via SC-Hub and LLs. Links with Climate-ADAPT and the Mission platform are being prepared, with iterative calibration and operational integration planned. SO5 initiated long-term research and innovation pathways by conducting a systematic policy review and developing a draft multi-level governance framework. Preparatory work for R&I roadmaps has begun, integrating LL outputs, risk assessments, and digital tools, ensuring alignment of EU strategies with CSA needs. Stakeholder engagement for roadmap design has started, with co-production of policy recommendations planned for the next phase.
CARMINE has delivered tangible results in its first 18 months. Eight LLs are operational, engaging stakeholders and vulnerable groups, producing co-designed climate challenge maps, NbS pathways, and participatory risk assessments. The SC-Hub was launched, with nearly 300 users enabling continuous digital collaboration. A harmonised modelling framework and hazard indicators have been developed, with Local Climate Zone datasets and high-resolution tools (e.g. PALM-meteo). Early DTs are operational: DT-HEAT (Athens, Prague, onboarded to DestinE) and DT-Flood Risk (Odense), with prototypes in Barcelona, Bologna, Brașov, Birmingham, and Leipzig. The IDSS has a prototype with interactive maps, dashboards, and scenario exploration. A draft governance framework and policy review set the foundation for future R&I roadmaps. The potential impacts are considerable. CARMINE supports 20 million+ citizens in case study regions, offering evidence-based pathways replicable across Europe. Advances include integration of climate, socio-economic, and environmental data into interoperable DTs and IDSS, reinforcing EU platforms like Climate-ADAPT and DestinE. Societal benefits include inclusive engagement, climate justice, and actionable strategies for municipalities. Policy gains stem from roadmaps and frameworks aligning local needs with EU strategies, strengthening the Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change. Key needs for uptake include: (i) further research and demonstration; (ii) finance and market access for NbS and digital tools; (iii) IPR and commercialisation clarity for DT and IDSS components; (iv) internationalisation, linking with WMO, UNDRR, GEO; and (v) supportive frameworks for interoperability, open science, and urban integration.