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Current and future shifts of snow regimes in extreme environments

Project description

Melting barriers: mapping the future of global snow

Climate change is swiftly transforming snow and ice, but current models struggle to predict these changes because snow processes are not well understood. The ERC-funded SnowShifts project will address this by using advanced satellite lasers, ground sensors and computer models to accurately measure snow volume and mass in remote areas, from the poles to high mountains. By closing knowledge gaps, the project aims to identify trends in snow climates and offer essential future scenarios based on different global socio-economic pathways. Ultimately, the project will produce extensive new datasets and machine learning tools, helping scientists to significantly enhance global climate models and better prepare for the environmental impacts of a warming world.

Objective

The UN Decade of Action on Cryospheric Sciences aims to reduce uncertainties regarding the causes and effects of changes in snow, ice, and permafrost. Snow is a major contributor to these uncertainties due to the incomplete understanding and representation of snow processes in climate models. SnowShifts seeks to significantly enhance our comprehension of snow volume and mass, their non-linear dynamics and properties and, specifically, snow regime shifts within the Earth and climate systems. This will be achieved through a novel combination of in-situ and remote sensing observations, along with high-end numeric model developments. Innovative technologies such as photon-counting space-borne laser altimeters, terrestrial superconducting gravimeters, and novel scale-bridging approaches and downscaling of satellite gravimetry in extreme snow environments will be integrated with the latest multi-sensor satellite data and modelling. This will enable the retrieval of snow volume, mass, extent, and other properties, such as snow albedo, at unprecedented spatio-temporal resolutions. The combined observational and modelling advancements will define and describe trends and shifts in snow climates ranging from high-latitude polar regions to mid-latitude high-mountain ranges. This project will provide future snow scenarios for at least three socio-economic pathways refining current global and regional climate models, exploring and defining potential non-linearities in snow changes. SnowShifts will not only demonstrate the accuracy of our new models in reproducing snow quantities and dynamics, but will also generate extensive datasets characterising snow in remote and understudied regions. The new representations of snow processes will be a major outcome permitting the scientific community to incorporate the knowledge gained into climate and land surface models, and to replace in parts computationally expensive model components with machine learning emulators.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

Programme(s)

Topic(s)

Funding Scheme

HORIZON-ERC-SYG - HORIZON ERC Synergy Grants

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Call for proposal

(opens in new window) ERC-2025-SyG

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Host institution

UNIVERSITETET I OSLO
Net EU contribution
€ 3 089 835,00
Address
PROBLEMVEIEN 5-7
0313 Oslo
Norway
Region
Norge Oslo og Viken Oslo
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Links
Total cost
€ 3 089 835,00

Beneficiaries (7)