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Gravitational Waveform Uncertainty in Modelling with Bayesian Machine-Learning Enhanced Surrogates (GWUMBLES)

Project description

Improving reliability of gravitational waveform models

Gravitational waveform models are critical tools in astrophysics for identifying gravitational-wave signals that allow scientists to infer the physical properties of compact binary sources such as black holes and neutron stars. While existing waveform models offer high accuracy, they seldom quantify their prediction uncertainty, which can lead to biased parameter estimations for unique or weak signals. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme, the GWUMBLES project will leverage advanced machine learning techniques to create a Bayesian neural network surrogate framework to improve the accuracy of waveform models. These models will be validated and incorporated into operational LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data analysis workflows, enabling more reliable identification of compact binary characteristics and subsequent scientific analyses.

Objective

This project will develop next-generation models for gravitational wave signals that, for the first time, incorporate rigorous estimates of modelling uncertainty using machine learning. The primary objective is to create a Bayesian neural network surrogate modelling framework, implemented using advanced machine learning techniques, and use it to augment state-of-the-art waveform models of binary black hole gravitational wave signals. The resulting model will be integrated into production LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration analysis pipelines, enabling more reliable inference of compact binary properties and downstream astrophysical studies, including tests of general relativity, population inference, and the astrophysics of massive stars. The work will be carried out through four work packages: (1) developing the Bayesian surrogate framework, (2) implementing it for gravitational waveform modelling, (3) validating and applying it to gravitational-wave data, and (4) deploying the models in collaboration analyses and releasing them for open community use. By advancing reliability and transparency in gravitational-wave astronomy, this project directly supports the objectives of the Horizon Europe Work Programme to foster scientific excellence, interdisciplinary innovation, and open science practices.

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HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2025-PF

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 260 347,92
Address
UNIVERSITY AVENUE
G12 8QQ Glasgow
United Kingdom

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Region
Scotland West Central Scotland Glasgow City
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

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No data