Obiettivo Extreme events are a key manifestation of complex systems, in both the natural and human world. Their economic and social consequences are a matter of enormous concern. Much of science has concentrated, until recently, on understanding the mean behavior of physical, biological or social systems and their "normal" variability. Extreme events, due to their rarity, have been hard to study and even harder to predict. We propose to develop methods for the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. General tools will be developed to extract the distribution of these events from existing data sets. Models that are anchored in complex-systems concepts will be constructed to incorporate a priori knowledge about the phenomena and to reproduce the data-derived distribution of events. These models will then be used to predict the likelihood of extreme events in prescribed time intervals. The methodology will be applied to three sets of pr oblems: (i) natural disasters from the realms of hydrology, seismology, and geomorphology; (ii) socio-economic crises, including those associated with criminality, mass violence, and terrorism; and (iii) rapid, and possibly catastrophic, changes in the interaction between economic activity and climate variability. The proposing team brings together expertise in various branches of the theory of nonlinear and complex systems, as well as in the application areas envisaged. Most importantly, it has a tru ly interdisciplinary, problem-oriented outlook. The work plan has been designed to integrate the expertise across the team and to provide problem-specific, as well as general results that will considerately strengthen the European Research Area in its " tackling complexity in science." Campo scientifico natural sciencesearth and related environmental scienceshydrologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeologyseismologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disastersnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeologygeomorphologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programma(i) FP6-POLICIES - Policy support: Specific activities covering wider field of research under the Focusing and Integrating Community Research programme 2002-2006. Argomento(i) NEST-2003-1 - Adventure activities Invito a presentare proposte FP6-2003-NEST-PATH Vedi altri progetti per questo bando Meccanismo di finanziamento STREP - Specific Targeted Research Project Coordinatore ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo 45 Rue D'Ulm PARIS Francia Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato Partecipanti (15) Classifica in ordine alfabetico Classifica per Contributo UE Espandi tutto Riduci tutto CENTRE D'ETUDES DE POPULATIONS, DE PAUVRETE ET DE POLITIQUES, SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES Lussemburgo Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Rue Emile Mark 44, B.P.48 DIFFERDANGE Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE Francia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo 3, Rue Michel-Ange PARIS Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato COMMISSARIAT À L'ÉNERGIE ATOMIQUE Francia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo 31/33 rue de la Fédération PARIS Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE Italia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo P.le Aldo Moro 7 ROMA Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato INSTITUT DE PHYSIQUE DU GLOBE DE PARIS Francia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Place Jussieu 4 PARIS Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato INSTITUT ROYAL METEOROLOGIQUE DE BELGIQUE Belgio Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Avenue Circulaire, 3 BRUSSELS Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato INSTITUTE OF GEODYNAMICS OF THE ROMANIAN ACADEMY Romania Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo 19-21 J.L.Calderon Str BUCHAREST Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Russia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Warshavskoye sh. 79, bldg. 2 MOSCOW Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato KING'S COLLEGE LONDON Regno Unito Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Strand LONDON Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato SOCIETE DE MATHEMATIQUES APPLIQUEES ET DE SCIENCES HUMAINES Francia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo 20 rue Rosenwald PARIS Mostra sulla mappa Costo totale Nessun dato UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI ROMA "LA SAPIENZA" Italia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Piazzale Aldo Moro 5 ROMA Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TORINO Italia Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Via Verdi 8 TORINO Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato UNIVERSITAET HAMBURG Germania Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1 HAMBURG Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM Germania Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Am Neuen Palais 10 POTSDAM Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE Belgio Contributo UE Nessun dato Indirizzo Place du 20 Août, 7 LIEGE Mostra sulla mappa Collegamenti Sito web Opens in new window Costo totale Nessun dato