Objective The goal of this proposal is to develop and promote Bayesian hypothesis tests for social scientists. By and large, social scientists have ignored the Bayesian revolution in statistics, and, consequently, most social scientists still assess the veracity of experimental effects using the same methodology that was used by their advisors and the advisors before them. This state of affairs is undesirable: social scientists conduct groundbreaking, innovative research only to analyze their results using methods that are old-fashioned or even inappropriate. This imbalance between the science and the statistics has gradually increased the pressure on the field to change the way inferences are drawn from their data. However, three requirements need to be fulfilled before social scientists are ready to adopt Bayesian tests of hypotheses. First, the Bayesian tests need to be developed for problems that social scientists work with on a regular basis; second, the Bayesian tests need to be default or objective; and, third, the Bayesian tests need to be available in a user-friendly computer program. This proposal seeks to make major progress on all three fronts.Concretely, the projects in this proposal build on recent developments in the field of statistics and use the default Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow priors to compute Bayesian hypothesis tests for regression, correlation, the t-test, and different versions of analysis of variance (ANOVA). A similar approach will be used to develop Bayesian hypothesis tests for logistic regression and the analysis of contingency tables, as well as for popular latent process methods such as factor analysis and structural equation modeling. We aim to implement the various tests in a new computer program, Bayes-SPSS, with a similar look and feel as the frequentist spreadsheet program SPSS (i.e. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). Together, these projects may help revolutionize the way social scientists analyze their data. Fields of science social sciencespolitical sciencespolitical transitionsrevolutions Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) ERC-SG-SH4 - ERC Starting Grant - The Human Mind and its complexity Call for proposal ERC-2011-StG_20101124 See other projects for this call Funding Scheme ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant Host institution UNIVERSITEIT VAN AMSTERDAM EU contribution € 1 498 286,00 Address SPUI 21 1012WX Amsterdam Netherlands See on map Region West-Nederland Noord-Holland Groot-Amsterdam Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Principal investigator Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (Dr.) Administrative Contact Thies Hoogveld (Mr.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data Beneficiaries (1) Sort alphabetically Sort by EU Contribution Expand all Collapse all UNIVERSITEIT VAN AMSTERDAM Netherlands EU contribution € 1 498 286,00 Address SPUI 21 1012WX Amsterdam See on map Region West-Nederland Noord-Holland Groot-Amsterdam Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Principal investigator Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (Dr.) Administrative Contact Thies Hoogveld (Mr.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Total cost No data
