Final Report Summary - IRGSCIMA (Integrated Risk Governance via Spatial Complexity Inspired Models and Algorithms)
Integrated Risk Governance (IRG) is a new challenging research topic, and it urgently demands effective models and algorithms as analysis tools. This project, by advancing a newly emerging concept in complexity science – spatial complexity inspired models and algorithms (SCIMA), developed a methodological platform of models and algorithms for the study of IRG problems. The methods that have been developed in this project take into account important spatial and/or temporal features in real-world risk systems, and integrate risk management considerations into the model development stage, in order to develop more effective and efficient tools to analyse risk systems and improve risk management.
In the first two years of the project, the fellow, Dr Hu, was seconded to the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China. The major objectives for the secondment period included: (i) acquisition of sufficient professional knowledge, skills and experience on risk systems and risk management; (ii) conducting the proof-of-concept work on the SCIMA-based methodological platform of models and algorithms for the study of IRG problems; (iii) improving multidisciplinary expertise, international reputation, and worldwide collaborative networking.
Dr Hu completed two training courses on natural disasters and risks, participated in 7 local project workshops on risk management, attended 6 international conferences/workshops, presented 4 conference papers, published 6 journal papers, attended a networking event of EURAXESS Links China as an invited speaker and established relationships with world-leading scientists in disaster risk reduction and management. In-depth study by Dr Hu resulted in him giving a talk “Ripple- Spreading Models and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance” at the International Disaster Risk Conference Davos 2012 (IDRC Davos 2012) in Aug 2012. Over the first two years of the project, Dr Hu attended 7 internal workshops on risk management in Beijing mostly focused on the engineering and management of complex situations. Moreover, during the same period he undertook 9 field trips to study various real-world disaster events, including earthquakes and landslides, flooding and blizzards. Dr Hu was then able to contribute to the preparation of a report on disaster reduction in China for the Chinese Central Government to the United Nations.
Based on the literature reviewed in the initial stages of the project, epidemic modelling was identified as a single-risk case study and chose disasters in network systems as a risk chain case study. Preliminary results were presented at the 5th International Conference on BioMedical Engineering in 2012 and Informatics China, and the IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence in 2103, respectively where the latter paper was one of 15 papers from 1000 shortlisted for the best paper award. A journal paper was subsequently published in the journal Mathematical Problems in Engineering in Nov 2013.
The study of cascading effects in network systems is important for the application of ripple-spreading models to risk chains and led to a journal paper in Mathematical Problems in Engineering in Sep 2013. There was also the opportunity to complete work more broadly in the scope of the higher-level objective of proving the concept of the SCIMA-based methodological platform for the study of IRG problems. For example, a deterministic method based on ripple-spreading models to calculate the complete Pareto front in multi-objective optimization problems, was published in the IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part B, in June 2013 and a spatial receding horizon control strategy to partition complex problems was published in The Scientific World Journal in April 2014.
One of the most exciting developments was the investigation of a brand-new real-world phenomenon inspired concept for disaster risk management, network consilience. The concept of consilience is inspired by the fact that “consensus of wills and coordination of activities” between individuals plays a crucial role in a social system if it is to achieve good performance in disaster risk management. The impact of consilience was captured by the consilience degree, with initial results reported in Science China – Information Sciences in 2014. The consilience degree concept has provoked considerable interest to the extent that Dr Hu is leading the production of a paper for world-leading journal Nature on the topic.
In the third year of the project, Dr Hu returned to the School of Engineering, University of Warwick, UK, and aimed to establish SCIMA as a brand-new research domain, which will have the fundamental advantage of enabling both academic researchers and field engineers to better understand and manage various complex systems not only within the scope of IRG, but also including many other engineering and social areas. In the last year, the fellow published 2 journal papers, presented 3 conference papers and submitted 2 papers for review. He extended the complete Pareto front method from discrete multi-objective optimization problems to continuous multi-objective optimization problems. This work was then presented at the 2014 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, in July 2014, enriching the complete Pareto front methodology proposed in the project. In addition, spatial receding horizon control (SRHC) was applied to risk management and reported at the 2014 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation in July 2014. Dr Hu also carried out a case study on the impact of adverse weather on civil aviation flights in China, directing PhD student and developing a new spatial vulnerability concept and assessment method presented at the 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems in October 2014. During the last year of the project, in collaboration with researchers at the BNU, China, a paper was submitted in the area of decision support for agricultural risk governance to the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.
Dr Hu also turned to writing new research funding bids, receiving a standard grant (720,000 CNY) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China in 2014. Towards the end of the project, he collaborated with Dr Leeson to develop a proposal for the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). This was reviewed by Warwick School of Engineering’s internal panel and Dr Hu is current revising the proposal based on the feedback received. In recognition of his research work and activities during the project, he was invited by the journal Mathematical Problems in Engineering to act as the Lead Guest Editor for a special issue on “Risk and Safety on Complex Network Systems”, due by the end of 2015.
The project has maintained a website within the Warwick School of Engineering (http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/eng/staff/msl/research/irgscima(öffnet in neuem Fenster)) where contact details for the project may be found.
In the first two years of the project, the fellow, Dr Hu, was seconded to the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, China. The major objectives for the secondment period included: (i) acquisition of sufficient professional knowledge, skills and experience on risk systems and risk management; (ii) conducting the proof-of-concept work on the SCIMA-based methodological platform of models and algorithms for the study of IRG problems; (iii) improving multidisciplinary expertise, international reputation, and worldwide collaborative networking.
Dr Hu completed two training courses on natural disasters and risks, participated in 7 local project workshops on risk management, attended 6 international conferences/workshops, presented 4 conference papers, published 6 journal papers, attended a networking event of EURAXESS Links China as an invited speaker and established relationships with world-leading scientists in disaster risk reduction and management. In-depth study by Dr Hu resulted in him giving a talk “Ripple- Spreading Models and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance” at the International Disaster Risk Conference Davos 2012 (IDRC Davos 2012) in Aug 2012. Over the first two years of the project, Dr Hu attended 7 internal workshops on risk management in Beijing mostly focused on the engineering and management of complex situations. Moreover, during the same period he undertook 9 field trips to study various real-world disaster events, including earthquakes and landslides, flooding and blizzards. Dr Hu was then able to contribute to the preparation of a report on disaster reduction in China for the Chinese Central Government to the United Nations.
Based on the literature reviewed in the initial stages of the project, epidemic modelling was identified as a single-risk case study and chose disasters in network systems as a risk chain case study. Preliminary results were presented at the 5th International Conference on BioMedical Engineering in 2012 and Informatics China, and the IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence in 2103, respectively where the latter paper was one of 15 papers from 1000 shortlisted for the best paper award. A journal paper was subsequently published in the journal Mathematical Problems in Engineering in Nov 2013.
The study of cascading effects in network systems is important for the application of ripple-spreading models to risk chains and led to a journal paper in Mathematical Problems in Engineering in Sep 2013. There was also the opportunity to complete work more broadly in the scope of the higher-level objective of proving the concept of the SCIMA-based methodological platform for the study of IRG problems. For example, a deterministic method based on ripple-spreading models to calculate the complete Pareto front in multi-objective optimization problems, was published in the IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part B, in June 2013 and a spatial receding horizon control strategy to partition complex problems was published in The Scientific World Journal in April 2014.
One of the most exciting developments was the investigation of a brand-new real-world phenomenon inspired concept for disaster risk management, network consilience. The concept of consilience is inspired by the fact that “consensus of wills and coordination of activities” between individuals plays a crucial role in a social system if it is to achieve good performance in disaster risk management. The impact of consilience was captured by the consilience degree, with initial results reported in Science China – Information Sciences in 2014. The consilience degree concept has provoked considerable interest to the extent that Dr Hu is leading the production of a paper for world-leading journal Nature on the topic.
In the third year of the project, Dr Hu returned to the School of Engineering, University of Warwick, UK, and aimed to establish SCIMA as a brand-new research domain, which will have the fundamental advantage of enabling both academic researchers and field engineers to better understand and manage various complex systems not only within the scope of IRG, but also including many other engineering and social areas. In the last year, the fellow published 2 journal papers, presented 3 conference papers and submitted 2 papers for review. He extended the complete Pareto front method from discrete multi-objective optimization problems to continuous multi-objective optimization problems. This work was then presented at the 2014 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, in July 2014, enriching the complete Pareto front methodology proposed in the project. In addition, spatial receding horizon control (SRHC) was applied to risk management and reported at the 2014 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation in July 2014. Dr Hu also carried out a case study on the impact of adverse weather on civil aviation flights in China, directing PhD student and developing a new spatial vulnerability concept and assessment method presented at the 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems in October 2014. During the last year of the project, in collaboration with researchers at the BNU, China, a paper was submitted in the area of decision support for agricultural risk governance to the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.
Dr Hu also turned to writing new research funding bids, receiving a standard grant (720,000 CNY) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China in 2014. Towards the end of the project, he collaborated with Dr Leeson to develop a proposal for the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). This was reviewed by Warwick School of Engineering’s internal panel and Dr Hu is current revising the proposal based on the feedback received. In recognition of his research work and activities during the project, he was invited by the journal Mathematical Problems in Engineering to act as the Lead Guest Editor for a special issue on “Risk and Safety on Complex Network Systems”, due by the end of 2015.
The project has maintained a website within the Warwick School of Engineering (http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/eng/staff/msl/research/irgscima(öffnet in neuem Fenster)) where contact details for the project may be found.