Final Report Summary - FORCE (FOResight Coordination for Europe)
Executive Summary:
The FORCE project has a duration of 24 months and started in April 2014. The consortium is made up of 6 partners from 5 different countries: United Kingdom, Germany, Portugal, Israel and Spain. This FORCE team is made up of Foresight, software and communication experts, whose expertise has come together to solve the problems and issues of presenting Foresight information across a large number of projects in an intuitive way and focusing on enabling users to retrieve meaningful information according to their needs.
The project was organised into six individual work packages, out of which four are related to coordination activities, one related to dissemination activities and one related to management. Project activities included: the review of recent and current research related to security-oriented Foresight and Horizon-scanning activities; development of a Foresight Model based on best practice methods recently researched; development of the IDSS – Intelligent Decision Support System; testing the model with members of the Advisory Board, end-users and other stakeholders.
In “WP3 - Review “ the FORCE project team mapped and reviewed selected relevant security-related Foresight studies carried out within the EU research Framework Programme and elsewhere. More specifically, the project team collected, reviewed and collated methods and outcomes from 28 projects and studies from the EU and beyond. Each method was briefly described, including examples of how it has been used and in what contexts.
This information can be easily accessible and searchable in the IDSS and in this way the results will help interested users to determine which Foresight method or combination of methods are appropriate for application in their given situation/context, problem domain, technology sector, etc.
In “WP4 – Foresight Model” the objective was to develop the Foresight Model that was used as a concept underlying the FORCE Intelligent Decision Support Tool (IDSS). Through the Foresight Model and the search and access strategies building on the Foresight Model, the user can find and explore, identify, assess, relate, connect and compare outcomes, methods and projects from recent and current EU security foresight projects and studies from the EU and beyond.
The “WP5 - Intelligent Decision Support System” main objective was to produce the IDSS. This tool aims to assist policy makers and stakeholders in the security domain to gather together in one place Security Foresight projects and studies in a structured way, so information can be compared and contrasted, and trends, risks and threats can be identified as well as potential scenarios and to determine expectations about short-term, mid-term and long-term social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future foresight research activities.
The IDSS tool is designed as a scalable tool, sustainable beyond the end of the project, which can connect to external data sources and will continue to be populated with Security Foresight data. At the end of the project there are 28 projects; 179 methods; 1977 findings; 643 people; 323 organisations; 231 documents in the IDSS database.
In “WP6 - Integration and Testing” a set of activities was carried out in order to integrate the Foresight Model with the IDSS interface and database and perform detailed testing. Two FORCE IDSS Validation Events in Berlin and Brussels were organised in January and March 2016, where 56 specialists in the field of security and security foresight were brought together to review, test and validate the IDSS.
Project Context and Objectives:
Context
The FORCE project relates to the issues addressed by the Security Call (Area 10.6.3 Foresight, scenarios and security as evolving concept), in Topic SEC-2013-6.3-1: Horizon scanning and foresight for security research and innovation – Coordination and Support Action (Coordinating Action).
Up to now a considerable number of security related foresight activities have been funded in the FP7 security theme. Misleading expectation can cause wrong investments, wrong political strategies or other expensive mistakes. To have reliable information about future social needs and possible technological solutions is a win-win situation for all stakeholders of the security innovation system.
In this context, FORCE reviewed Security foresight studies and Security horizon-scanning activities in FP7 and elsewhere in Europe and beyond, and produced, based on this work, a Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support system (IDSS), evolvable and scalable with future Foresight research activities.
The Foresight Model was designed to identify the most promising methods for different tasks. The Foresight Model includes a detailed description of methods used in foresight research including strengths and weaknesses.
The Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) will assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result they will assist decision makers to strategically plan for short-term, medium -term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society.
The information and linkages from Foresight project and studies are stored in a Knowledge Base that is constructed upon a Big Data Database (DB). A Mapping tool provides authorised users with administrative privileges, so they can populate the FORCE Knowledge Base with information from current or past EU Security Foresight projects and establish linkages with other projects already in the Knowledge Base.
Objectives
• To examine previous Security foresight studies and horizon-scanning activities in FP7 and elsewhere in Europe and beyond.
• To produce, based on this work, a Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS), evolvable and scalable with future Foresight research activities conducted in Europe.
• To assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain determine expectations about short-term, mid-term and long-term social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities.
• To assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain can strategically plan for risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society.
Project Results:
The FORCE Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) lays the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors. The IDSS tool is designed as a scalable tool, sustainable beyond the end of the project, which can connect to external data sources and will continue to be populated with Security foresight data.
FORCE activities included:
1. Examining outputs from Security projects funded in FP7 and other sources in Europe (Internet, studies, journals etc.) and beyond related to Foresight and Horizon-scanning activities via: Workshops; interviews; collaboration with national and international foresight groups and experts.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D3.1 - Review and mapping of methodologies for effective evaluation of future security risks to society
D3.3 - Report on Knowledge Elicitation from Experts (Interviews)
D3.4 - Final Synthesis Report on Security Oriented Foresight Mapping of Outputs and Methods
1.1 Introduction
The foresight studies included in the mapping were selected from the FP7 security research domain and from published reports on other recent projects that were not related to FP7. Mapping continued until the end of the project and resulted in: 28 projects; 179 methods; 1977 findings; 643 people; 323 organisations; 231 documents in the IDSS database.
During the first year of the project (April 2014 – March 2015), workshops were organised in January 2015 in Israel, UK and Portugal. The main objective of the workshops was to facilitate and stimulate critical discussions on the concept of the foresight model and the Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) as a policy tool in decision-making. The workshops participants included both foresight and security experts coming from organisations in government, industry and academia.
Between October 2014 and January 2015, 18 in-depth interviews were conducted to identify the needs and expectations of stakeholders towards a security foresight Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS). These interviews targeted first of all senior officers from police organisations, security agencies and ministries of interior. Interviews also included research centres and international organisations in the area of security. The aim was to gain valuable inputs into the design requirements of the FORCE Decision Support System, with a better understanding of security foresight activities, needs and expectations of targeted users.
1.2 Synthesis Report on Security Oriented Foresight Mapping of Outputs and Methods
The Deliverable 3.4 (http://goo.gl/t9i8PP) produced after the first year of the project, integrated the results of reviewing and mapping recent security foresight projects and initiatives as well as insights from interviews and workshops conducted with experts. This included experts from outside the consortium countries e.g. Estonia, Belgium. The mapping of EU Security foresight projects in FORCE provides a varied content of trends, threats, scenarios, wild cards and weak signals, methods and tools, as well as lists of key and emerging technologies. This content provided the basis for the FORCE IDSS.
Projects that were judged to be interesting for most user groups are: Security Jam 2012, Global Trends 2025, Acrimas, Etcetera, Festos, GST 5, Star-Trans and Seron. The IDSS should identify links between threat areas or domains and also report different time-scales for trends.
Some of the security foresight projects mapped in FORCE suffer from weaknesses that can be overcome by the use of modern quantitative foresight methods as we learn from recent research. It is recommended to combine qualitative and quantitative foresight methods. It is also recommended to apply statistical methods for long term projections or early warning systems, such as time series analysis and indicator-based models. Other examples of relatively new foresight methods include agent based models and models based on machine learning and big data.
The security domain is being impacted by growing complexity and uncertainties emanating from hyperconnectivity and posing serious threats to society. Such situations mandate the use of novel foresight methods, such as wild cards, gaming, crowdsourcing, agent based models and the global participatory platform advocated by "Future ICT". Several examples of using novel foresight methods are mentioned in Deliverable D3.4 (Final Synthesis report on security-oriented foresight methodologies and best practices), including the Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (W-ICEWS), The Good Judgement Project, Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) and Online Foresight Platforms such as the Institute for the Future’s (IFTF) Foresight Engine and Wikistrat. Most potential users are more interested in foresight results rather than in foresight methods since they do not actively engage in foresight exercises. Foresight methods should be included in the IDSS but not as the main feature.
Clear advice on how to improve the relationship between methodological aspects and operational needs can be beneficial to users. It is important to have methodological references which support the outputs of the analysed data.
Another important feature mentioned in discussions with security and foresight experts is the connection between users and the connection of users to foresight experts that participated in foresight projects. This can be achieved through social media and forums. Providing the basis for social networking and contact between futures planning professionals, academics and laymen could be a unique selling point for the project.
1.3 The project posters
An important activity, which was part of collecting and analysing information from recent security foresight projects resulted in the production of a poster exhibition with a set of aesthetic posters presenting the projects.
This exhibition was made in all the workshops organised by the FORCE project and is available by request for future shows.
1.4 Foresight methods strengths and weaknesses
There are several sources that describe, compare and analyse foresight methods. An analysis that is published on the IDSS http://idss.force-europe.eu includes a short description of some of the more popular foresight methods including their strengths and weaknesses and is based on: Popper https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/foresight-methods; on the Millennium Project http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html; on the practical foresight guide by Jackson www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch03.pdf; and on the FOR-LEARN project http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/methods.html .
2. Producing a Foresight Model, scalable and sustainable beyond the end of the project.
This includes:
o Mapping categories of user groups and their needs to the foresight projects (methodologies) and results.
o Developing a model to enable the methods and results of security foresight projects to be structured in a way where information can be interrogated in a user friendly manner and comparisons can be made between projects.
o Identifying opportunities for triangulation (mix of methods/outcomes, combination of two methods/outcomes, and combination of different parts of methods/outcomes).
o Identifying gaps between user requirements and methods used so far.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D4.1 - FORCE Expert Workshop Report on the “International Feedback and Design Workshop for a Foresight Exploration Model”, Technische Universität Berlin
D4.2 - The Foresight Model
D4.3 - Report on design, functionality and software requirements of the online mapping tool
D4.4 - Report on Blog and Discussion Forum
D4.5 - The Foresight Model (updated)
Based on the findings from earlier Workpackages, we first identified three challenges for making foresight accessible and re-usable and outline strategies to tackle them:
1. Making foresight accessible
2. Passing through the filters – matching user needs
3. People and participation
Based on these we presented a foresight model in D4.2 (http://goo.gl/z0eNsM) breaking-down foresight projects into their component elements and their interrelations, and introduce additional meta-data and classification schemes. Complementary (other) foresight platforms were reviewed to learn from good and bad practices. A conclusions chapter (see chapter 5) of D4.2 outlines strategies for accessing this knowledge, technical requirements to employ them and recommendations for the FORCE IDSS.
The FORCE Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) lays the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors.
The Foresight Model and corresponding IDSS, developed in FORCE, is of great value to policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain, assisting them to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result, their ability to strategically plan for short-term, medium-term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society will be substantially enhanced.
FORCE employed a participative and integrative approach which has enabled creation of shared long-term visions as input to present decision-making processes related to security in Europe. FORCE results will be used by policy makers and professionals who work at different levels (EU, national, regional, etc.) in the research system, the industry sector, and other domains, assisting them to carry out better threat assessments as well as to identify emerging trends and technologies with potential to cope with future threats.
The FORCE Foresight Model and IDSS is an evolvable, scalable system, sustainable beyond the end of the project, and will become more capable and powerful as future methodologies are added and more intelligent software to run the Intelligent Decision Support System becomes available. The visibility and the take up of security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users, will be significantly improved thanks to FORCE.
FORCE has created a Discussion Forum and Blog to sit alongside the FORCE Foresight Model and IDSS. It is planned for this to be a continuous exercise, sustainable beyond the project duration. In this way a common view regarding the FORCE methodology will develop regarding foresight and horizon scanning activities within and across different stakeholders such as security agencies, law enforcement organisations, industrial organisations and academic organisations. The addresses of the tools are:
- Blog - http://blog.force-europe.eu
- Forum - https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=8333947
3. Developing an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) as an end-user tool that will interface into the Foresight Model.
o Integration of the IDSS with the Foresight Model and testing the integrated system using futuristic scenarios.
o Supporting the visibility and the take up of security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users, via dissemination of the Foresight Model and corresponding IDSS.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D5.1 - Report of software selection criteria
D5.2 - Report on design of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
D5.3 - Report on Legal, Ethical and Security Design of the IDSS
D5.4 - Updated report on Design of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
3.1 FORCE Foresight Model and FORCE-IDSS in the decision making process
The main goal of decisions makers is to produce rational decisions in a rapidly changing, continuously evolving, complex, demanding and global context. The rational decisions require analysis of a huge volume of data from disparate sources to solve poorly defined problems. Decision makers use tools known as Decision Support System to drive the whole decision making process.
Intelligent Decision Support Systems – IDSS – are software tools aimed to help Decision Makers throughout the decision making process. IDSS systems fundamentally aggregate and analyse data providing the information in a useful manner whereby decision makers can observe and understand the context’s problem at a glance.
The IDSS is based on a Foresight Model developed during the project. Based on the FORCE Foresight Model, there are six different major elements in the IDSS tool:
1. Methods
2. People
3. Findings
4. Projects
5. Organisations
6. Documents
The FORCE IDSS is developed using a multi-tier architecture. Some of the advantages of this architecture include:
- Managing data is independent from the physical storage.
- Migration to new graphical environments is faster.
- It is possible to make changes on the presentation level without affecting the other three levels (Integration, Business or Data layer).
- As each tier is independent, it is possible to use different sets of developers.
- Since the client does not have direct access to the database, the business logic is more secure.
- Mission critical applications can make use of redundant application servers and DB servers. This means that when one server fails there is no data loss, because the system can always access the other server.
For further information, you can watch the following online videos:
Video 1
The main rationale behind the Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Why was it created?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
Video 2
Main Components of the Intelligent Decision support system (IDSS).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
Video 3
This video explains how to find information using the IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
Video 4
Please follow the instructions in this video, if you wish to change your name or alter the information stored in the IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
Video 5
Please follow the instructions in this video if you would like to suggest a project related to foresight security for uploading to the IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
The FORCE IDSS tool is available at https://idss.force-europe.eu .
4. Integration and Testing/validation
4.1 Introduction
To ensure that the IDSS is able to fulfil all relevant tasks to assist decision makers, researchers and law enforcement in their foresight activities and to find, assess, compare and connect foresight results, the tool was tested and validated by further developing existing futuristic scenarios. The scenarios which were produced in the FP7 security project FESTOS in 2010 were used as a testbed.
The validation was conducted within three different consecutive workshops in which project members and external experts tested the IDSS with their professional perspective.
In the preparation phase, the project team compared all four scenarios produced in the FESTOS project systematically and selected the most promising two scenarios for testing and validating the IDSS: “Cyber-Insects attack!” and “We’ll change your mind...”.
Both scenarios were analysed in-depth and main topics and keywords were identified. In one internal and two external validation workshops, keywords were fed into the IDSS in practical exercises to find and assess related findings from other security related foresight projects in the IDSS. The results were analysed and discussed regarding how these findings would influence the existing FESTOS scenarios, e.g. if they corroborate them or point to alternative directions of development. Based on the results from the two external validation workshops with security experts, the foresight expert and science fiction author Karlheinz Steinmüller enriched and further developed the two FESTOS scenarios based on the feedback.
The FORCE project partners organised two Validation Events in order to test and finalise the IDSS and to promote the IDSS among end-users. Those events took place in Berlin on the 27th of January 2016 in Berlin, Germany and on the 1st of March 2016 in Brussels, Belgium with 56 end-users participating in total, mainly security experts and personnel from law enforcement agencies.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D6.1 - Report on Integration of IDSS with Foresight Model
D6.2 - Report on scenarios to feed the IDSS
D6.3 - FORCE Scenario Validation Events
D6.4 - Report on Training Materials
4.2 Integration of IDSS with Foresight Model
D6.1 (http://goo.gl/tLvtJg) includes the architecture and design specification of the integrated FORCE IDSS platform. The integration architecture includes how to integrate the different IDSS components modules, i.e. the IDSS/Mapping tool User Interface and the Knowledge Base. Additionally, a set of test cases against which the integrated platform prototypes were technically evaluated is included.
4.3 Internal Validation Workshop
The first validation exercise in the internal workshop exercise focused on the ‘We´ll change your mind...’ scenario and showed that it is absolutely crucial to have enough information and foresight projects in the IDSS in order to find relevant results. On the other hand, it showed that it is also crucial, to be able to narrow down results, especially with a growing database, e.g. by specifying search terms (multiple word search), by connecting search terms through operations like AND and OR and by adding search criteria. Also, in order for the user to be able to find the most relevant findings first, it is necessary to highlight the search terms in the findings and finding descriptions.
Furthermore, related information and further findings related to the initial finding the user is looking should be found easily through direct linkages. The validation procedure was used to test, if the functionalities initially planned in the FORCE Foresight Model were properly implemented and useful for the search.
In the course of the validation process (between the internal and two external scenario workshops), changes and updates were made to the IDSS in order to enhance the IDSS, by:
- Uploading comprehensive information on more foresight projects to the IDSS (altogether 28 foresight projects were uploaded to the IDSS).
- Improving linkages according to the FORCE Foresight Model, such as, for example, the linkages between findings and methods (input findings) or linkages between projects and findings.
- Improving search functionalities, e.g. allowing multiple word search, search with operations (AND/OR) and adding search fields to the different entities (like ‘time-horizon’ for findings). However, search functionalities in the IDSS still could be improved in future versions of the IDSS, such as linkages across projects and adding more search fields for the different entities, e.g. organisation type for organisation.
4.4 Two Validation events with external end-users
The procedure of testing and validating the IDSS by using it to find further information and related results from other foresight projects to enhance and further develop existing scenarios from the FESTOS project, successfully validated the content, structure and functionalities of the IDSS regarding its use for foresight activities. The external workshops included a practical exercise using the IDSS with participation of experts from law enforcement as well as security and foresight research.
For each event, after a general introduction of the project and a short explanation on how to use the IDSS, the participants conducted an exercise using the IDSS led by Karlheinz Steinmüller, a science fiction author, based on the scenario from the FESTOS project on cyber-insects: “Cyber-Insects attack!”
Following this exercise, feedback was collected from participants that was quite positive, about their experience of the IDSS and included suggestions for the future of the IDSS. Much positive feedback was received from both workshops regarding the IDSS as a repository of information and data in one place for security foresight information from recent projects and studies, including a database of experts and organisations involved in security foresight.
When asked to score the key components from 1 to 5, respondents who participated in the events scaled the “Repository of reports and other documents” as the most useful element with an average of 4.5. This was followed by “contact details for experts” (4.2) and “Findings from security Foresight research with (4.1). Overall, the IDSS was strongly approved and validated by the end-users who participated at both events.
4.5 Further development of FESTOS scenarios
Based on the results of the validation exercise within the one internal and two external workshops described above the two FESTOS scenarios were edited, extended and improved, namely:
Scenario 1: Cyber-Insects attack!
Wild Card: Swarms of cyber-insects attack people and animals.
Scenario 2: We’ll change your mind...
Wild Card: A terrorist group uses a virus to change the behaviour of a portion of the population for a certain period of time.
It was shown through the validation exercise and discussions and feedback from the scenario workshops that the IDSS generated relevant results for the search terms used relating to the two FESTOS scenarios. These results, for example, supported or contradicted aspects and assumptions of the scenarios, and also motivated the workshop participants to think of new ideas and implications for the existing scenarios so that – although not all new ideas could be integrated – the existing scenarios could be enhanced and further developed.
4.6 Training Materials
The following materials were produced:
- An introductory page in the IDSS online tool to provide a general explanation of the project and the IDSS.
- A video to explain the IDSS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06X-1EnnXL4
- An FAQ to provide answers to key questions
Six questions were identified by project partners as important for users to understand. These are:
1- What is the main rationale behind the IDSS and why was it created?
2- What are the main components of the FORCE Intelligent Decision support system (IDSS)?
3- How does the search tool work in the Intelligent Decision Support System?
4- How can I find more information on the topic I am working on through the IDSS?
5- How can I suggest a project that should be included in the IDSS?
6- How can I have my project or my name removed / modified?
The list of Questions and answers can be easily accessed through the FAQ page that can be clicked in the left column of the IDSS as indicated in Figure 1 below. See Annex 1 for the full text of the FAQs.
- A YouTube channel with videos explaining how end-users can work with the IDSS (this replaces the webinar as webinars are a one-time activity and the YouTube videos will be permanently available and will reach a larger audience).
To further support the experience of end-users with the IDSS, INOVA+ created five screencasts (listed below) related to the FAQs above. A screencast is a digital recording of computer screen output (a video screen capture) that contains audio narration.
1. The main rationale behind IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
2. The main components of the IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
3. How to find information using IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
4. How to update information stored in online based system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
5. How to suggest a project related to foresight security to IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
Potential Impact:
The impact generated from FORCE is as per the expected impact defined in the call text for topic SEC-2013-6.3-1 - Horizon scanning and foresight for security research and innovation.
Impact
The project results provide more effective information into foresight for political agenda setting and also provide a better understanding of the new and upcoming technologies and long-term trends, leading to the strategic planning into security issues of relevant stakeholders.
The outcomes from FORCE can help decision makers to better assess investment alternatives for prevention or preparedness and to make the appropriate trade-offs between security and other societal objectives such as the right to privacy and the freedom of scientific research.
FORCE contributes:
• to more effective foresight information, since the project has laid the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors.
• to the improvement of the political agenda setting, due to the fact that the Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) developed in FORCE, is of great value to policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain by assisting them to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result, their ability to strategically plan for short-term, medium-term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society will be substantially enhanced.
• to a better understanding of long term trends and new technologies, because the FORCE participative and integrative approach enables the creation of shared medium and long-term visions to inform present decision-making processes related to security in Europe. FORCE results can be used by policy makers and professionals who work at different levels (EU, national, regional, etc.) in research, industry and other domains, assisting them to carry out better threat assessments as well as to identify emerging trends and technologies with potential to cope with future threats.
• to providing a significant improvement of input to the strategic planning of relevant stakeholders by raising the visibility and take up of EU security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users.
In terms of dissemination, the project partners have been very active in the dissemination of the project outcomes and activities, supported by a set of dissemination materials. We believe that the project has reached the expected impact in terms of dissemination. See public deliverable “D2.4 - Updated Report on Dissemination Activities” for further details on dissemination activities.
For dissemination purposes the project developed:
• Visual identity
• Website – www.force-europe.eu
• Flyer - A first version of the flyer was created to be used in several dissemination events.
• Brochure - The project brochure (threefold) was developed and printed. These brochures were printed in offset but developed taking into account that they can be printed using a common printer at the partner premises.
• Poster - The project poster (A2 and A3 sizes) was developed and printed.
• Roll-up - The project roll-up was developed and produced.
• Folder - A folder to be used at the events organised by the project was developed and printed.
• Pen - A set of pens with the FORCE logo was produced to be distributed during FORCE project events and at other dissemination activities.
• Letterhead sheet - A template letterhead sheet was developed in order to be used for invitations, press releases and event agendas.
• Project’s PPT presentation - A brief Powerpoint Presentation introducing the project (Powerpoint) for use by the consortium members.
• 3 Newsletters - http://goo.gl/ZMfo91
• 3 Policy Briefs - http://goo.gl/SszXuE
• Videos - A video was produced and uploaded on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06X-1EnnXL4
Additionally we created 5 videos about the IDSS:
1. The main rationale behind IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
2. The main components of the IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
3. How to find information using IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
4. How to update information stored in online based system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
5. How to suggest a project related to foresight security to IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
• IDSS Infographic - An infographic was designed and published in order to publicise IDSS statistics. - http://goo.gl/EPGYHo
• Flash News - In order to complement the newsletters, a “flash” news was produced and dispatched in February 2016. - http://goo.gl/ZMfo91
For further information on these materials, download the FORCE Dissemination Materials document available on the website: http://goo.gl/uQaOC2
FORCE consortium members participated in the following events:
• RACE2050 Final Conference - 29.01.15 - Brussels, Belgium
• Innovationsforum “Zivile Sicherheit” - 7.-9.5.2014 - Berlin, Germany
• INSEC Final Conference - 11.07.14 - Lisbon, Portugal
• HLS14 - 9-11.11.14 - Tel-Aviv, Israel
• Techitaly2014 - 25.09.2014 - Brussels, Belgium
• Workshop for the Final Evaluation of the Security Research Actions - 29.04.2015 - Brussels, Belgium
• Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems - 11-12.06.2015 - Turku, Finland
• The Future of Mobilities: Flows, Transport and Communication - 14-17.09.2015 - Napoli, Italy
• Get involved in shaping the future of European Security Research - 15-16.09.2015 - Berlin, Germany
• BMBF "End User Key - demand orientation as a success factor“ - 14-15.10.2015 - Brussels, Belgium
• ICT 2015 - 20-22.10.2015 - Lisbon, Portugal
• ESR Event - 4-6.11.2015 Dublin, Ireland
• DRIVER Innovation for Crisis Management (I4CM) conference - 8-9.12.2015 Berlin, Germany
• SEC21 Pan European Networks of practitioners and other actors in the field of security - 01.02.2016 - Nice, France
• Security Jam 2016 - 25-28.04.2016 - Online and in Brussels
And organised the following events:
• FORCE Expert Workshop UK - 09.01.15 - NCA (UK)
• FORCE expert workshop Israel - 15.01.2015 - Tel Aviv University
• FORCE expert workshop Portugal - 22.01.2015 - Policia Judiciária, Portugal
• FORCE International Feedback and Design Workshop for a Foresight Exploration Model - 24-25.02.15 - Technische Universität Berlin
• Expert workshop in Spain - 17.06.2015 - Madrid, Spain
• Validation event – Berlin – 27.01.2016 - Berlin, Germany
• Validation event – Brussels – 01.03.2016 - Berlin, Germany
FORCE has also also developed synergies with the fooling projects/networks:
• ACRIMAS - Aftermath Crisis Management System-of-systems Demonstration Phase I
• AF3 - Advanced Forest Fire Fighting
• Connect2SEA – Connecting ICT in Europe and South East Asia
• DESSI - Decision Support on Security Investment
• EFP - European Foresight Platform - supporting forward looking decision making
• ETCETERA - Evaluation of critical and emerging technologies for the elaboration of a security research agenda
• ETTIS – European security trends and threats in society
• EU-GRASP - Changing multilateralism: The EU as a global-regional actor in security and peace
• INSEC - Increase Innovation and Research within Security Organisations
• INTEG-RISK - Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology related Risks
• LASIE - Large Area Solid State Intelligent Efficient luminaires
• Margin – Tackle Insecurity in Marginalized Areas
• Race2050 - Responsible innovation Agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050
• SANDERA - The Future Impact of Security and Defence Policies on the European Research Area
• SECURENV - Assessment of environmental accidents from a security perspective
• SecurePART - Increasing the engagement of civil society in security research
• Security Jam
• STAR-TRANS - Strategic Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning in Interconnected Transport Networks
• Technologieradar BKA
• VALUESEC - Mastering the value function of security measures
In terms of exploitation, results from FORCE will be exploited via the following means:
• The European Commission should encourage current and future Security Foresight Projects to map and update their work and results to the FORCE IDSS.
• End-user security organisations will be encouraged to bring the FORCE IDSS in-house so they can customise it as an internal tool.
• Academic organisations can use the public version of the FORCE IDSS for purposes of research and training.
• The FORCE partners will apply for a follow-up project within H2020 at the earliest opportunity. It is recommended that a suitable topic is included in an upcoming call.
• The FORCE IDSS will be continually disseminated to relevant stakeholders in the Security domain
• The FORCE web-site and IDSS website will be maintained for the next 5 years by the partners.
• The FORCE IDSS can alternatively be used for foresight activities in domains other than Security e.g. energy, Health – in order to bring work and results from FP projects together, and enable comparisons to be made and threats and trends to be identified.
Exploitation per se is not the main goal of Coordination Actions. However the results have been and will continue to be broadly disseminated to interested parties. Bringing together various actors at the FORCE workshops has contributed to this activity.
As part of the sustainability of the project, it is the intention of the project consortium to continue with the promotion of the FORCE results and IDSS. The main dissemination channels will be at National and European levels via the project website, participation at relevant events and the FORCE Blog and Linked-in group. The website will be available and updated after the end of the project.
The database of stakeholders created during the project will be used to keep them informed about security foresight and at the same time will be used to promote the IDSS as we already did on the 14th April of 2016 by promoting the Security Jam 2016 event. During this event, EFPC as project coordinator and GLOBAZ as the dissemination leader, participated in some activities presenting the FORCE and IDSS.
The FORCE partners are very active in the security foresight area and will participate, as they did during the project, at several events at National and European level. Examples of events:
• Security research & innovation event 2016
• H2020 Security info days
• Security Research Event 2016
List of Websites:
www.force-europe.eu
Coordinator’s Contact details:
michael@efpcgroup.com
The FORCE project has a duration of 24 months and started in April 2014. The consortium is made up of 6 partners from 5 different countries: United Kingdom, Germany, Portugal, Israel and Spain. This FORCE team is made up of Foresight, software and communication experts, whose expertise has come together to solve the problems and issues of presenting Foresight information across a large number of projects in an intuitive way and focusing on enabling users to retrieve meaningful information according to their needs.
The project was organised into six individual work packages, out of which four are related to coordination activities, one related to dissemination activities and one related to management. Project activities included: the review of recent and current research related to security-oriented Foresight and Horizon-scanning activities; development of a Foresight Model based on best practice methods recently researched; development of the IDSS – Intelligent Decision Support System; testing the model with members of the Advisory Board, end-users and other stakeholders.
In “WP3 - Review “ the FORCE project team mapped and reviewed selected relevant security-related Foresight studies carried out within the EU research Framework Programme and elsewhere. More specifically, the project team collected, reviewed and collated methods and outcomes from 28 projects and studies from the EU and beyond. Each method was briefly described, including examples of how it has been used and in what contexts.
This information can be easily accessible and searchable in the IDSS and in this way the results will help interested users to determine which Foresight method or combination of methods are appropriate for application in their given situation/context, problem domain, technology sector, etc.
In “WP4 – Foresight Model” the objective was to develop the Foresight Model that was used as a concept underlying the FORCE Intelligent Decision Support Tool (IDSS). Through the Foresight Model and the search and access strategies building on the Foresight Model, the user can find and explore, identify, assess, relate, connect and compare outcomes, methods and projects from recent and current EU security foresight projects and studies from the EU and beyond.
The “WP5 - Intelligent Decision Support System” main objective was to produce the IDSS. This tool aims to assist policy makers and stakeholders in the security domain to gather together in one place Security Foresight projects and studies in a structured way, so information can be compared and contrasted, and trends, risks and threats can be identified as well as potential scenarios and to determine expectations about short-term, mid-term and long-term social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future foresight research activities.
The IDSS tool is designed as a scalable tool, sustainable beyond the end of the project, which can connect to external data sources and will continue to be populated with Security Foresight data. At the end of the project there are 28 projects; 179 methods; 1977 findings; 643 people; 323 organisations; 231 documents in the IDSS database.
In “WP6 - Integration and Testing” a set of activities was carried out in order to integrate the Foresight Model with the IDSS interface and database and perform detailed testing. Two FORCE IDSS Validation Events in Berlin and Brussels were organised in January and March 2016, where 56 specialists in the field of security and security foresight were brought together to review, test and validate the IDSS.
Project Context and Objectives:
Context
The FORCE project relates to the issues addressed by the Security Call (Area 10.6.3 Foresight, scenarios and security as evolving concept), in Topic SEC-2013-6.3-1: Horizon scanning and foresight for security research and innovation – Coordination and Support Action (Coordinating Action).
Up to now a considerable number of security related foresight activities have been funded in the FP7 security theme. Misleading expectation can cause wrong investments, wrong political strategies or other expensive mistakes. To have reliable information about future social needs and possible technological solutions is a win-win situation for all stakeholders of the security innovation system.
In this context, FORCE reviewed Security foresight studies and Security horizon-scanning activities in FP7 and elsewhere in Europe and beyond, and produced, based on this work, a Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support system (IDSS), evolvable and scalable with future Foresight research activities.
The Foresight Model was designed to identify the most promising methods for different tasks. The Foresight Model includes a detailed description of methods used in foresight research including strengths and weaknesses.
The Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) will assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result they will assist decision makers to strategically plan for short-term, medium -term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society.
The information and linkages from Foresight project and studies are stored in a Knowledge Base that is constructed upon a Big Data Database (DB). A Mapping tool provides authorised users with administrative privileges, so they can populate the FORCE Knowledge Base with information from current or past EU Security Foresight projects and establish linkages with other projects already in the Knowledge Base.
Objectives
• To examine previous Security foresight studies and horizon-scanning activities in FP7 and elsewhere in Europe and beyond.
• To produce, based on this work, a Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS), evolvable and scalable with future Foresight research activities conducted in Europe.
• To assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain determine expectations about short-term, mid-term and long-term social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities.
• To assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain can strategically plan for risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society.
Project Results:
The FORCE Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) lays the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors. The IDSS tool is designed as a scalable tool, sustainable beyond the end of the project, which can connect to external data sources and will continue to be populated with Security foresight data.
FORCE activities included:
1. Examining outputs from Security projects funded in FP7 and other sources in Europe (Internet, studies, journals etc.) and beyond related to Foresight and Horizon-scanning activities via: Workshops; interviews; collaboration with national and international foresight groups and experts.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D3.1 - Review and mapping of methodologies for effective evaluation of future security risks to society
D3.3 - Report on Knowledge Elicitation from Experts (Interviews)
D3.4 - Final Synthesis Report on Security Oriented Foresight Mapping of Outputs and Methods
1.1 Introduction
The foresight studies included in the mapping were selected from the FP7 security research domain and from published reports on other recent projects that were not related to FP7. Mapping continued until the end of the project and resulted in: 28 projects; 179 methods; 1977 findings; 643 people; 323 organisations; 231 documents in the IDSS database.
During the first year of the project (April 2014 – March 2015), workshops were organised in January 2015 in Israel, UK and Portugal. The main objective of the workshops was to facilitate and stimulate critical discussions on the concept of the foresight model and the Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) as a policy tool in decision-making. The workshops participants included both foresight and security experts coming from organisations in government, industry and academia.
Between October 2014 and January 2015, 18 in-depth interviews were conducted to identify the needs and expectations of stakeholders towards a security foresight Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS). These interviews targeted first of all senior officers from police organisations, security agencies and ministries of interior. Interviews also included research centres and international organisations in the area of security. The aim was to gain valuable inputs into the design requirements of the FORCE Decision Support System, with a better understanding of security foresight activities, needs and expectations of targeted users.
1.2 Synthesis Report on Security Oriented Foresight Mapping of Outputs and Methods
The Deliverable 3.4 (http://goo.gl/t9i8PP) produced after the first year of the project, integrated the results of reviewing and mapping recent security foresight projects and initiatives as well as insights from interviews and workshops conducted with experts. This included experts from outside the consortium countries e.g. Estonia, Belgium. The mapping of EU Security foresight projects in FORCE provides a varied content of trends, threats, scenarios, wild cards and weak signals, methods and tools, as well as lists of key and emerging technologies. This content provided the basis for the FORCE IDSS.
Projects that were judged to be interesting for most user groups are: Security Jam 2012, Global Trends 2025, Acrimas, Etcetera, Festos, GST 5, Star-Trans and Seron. The IDSS should identify links between threat areas or domains and also report different time-scales for trends.
Some of the security foresight projects mapped in FORCE suffer from weaknesses that can be overcome by the use of modern quantitative foresight methods as we learn from recent research. It is recommended to combine qualitative and quantitative foresight methods. It is also recommended to apply statistical methods for long term projections or early warning systems, such as time series analysis and indicator-based models. Other examples of relatively new foresight methods include agent based models and models based on machine learning and big data.
The security domain is being impacted by growing complexity and uncertainties emanating from hyperconnectivity and posing serious threats to society. Such situations mandate the use of novel foresight methods, such as wild cards, gaming, crowdsourcing, agent based models and the global participatory platform advocated by "Future ICT". Several examples of using novel foresight methods are mentioned in Deliverable D3.4 (Final Synthesis report on security-oriented foresight methodologies and best practices), including the Worldwide Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (W-ICEWS), The Good Judgement Project, Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) and Online Foresight Platforms such as the Institute for the Future’s (IFTF) Foresight Engine and Wikistrat. Most potential users are more interested in foresight results rather than in foresight methods since they do not actively engage in foresight exercises. Foresight methods should be included in the IDSS but not as the main feature.
Clear advice on how to improve the relationship between methodological aspects and operational needs can be beneficial to users. It is important to have methodological references which support the outputs of the analysed data.
Another important feature mentioned in discussions with security and foresight experts is the connection between users and the connection of users to foresight experts that participated in foresight projects. This can be achieved through social media and forums. Providing the basis for social networking and contact between futures planning professionals, academics and laymen could be a unique selling point for the project.
1.3 The project posters
An important activity, which was part of collecting and analysing information from recent security foresight projects resulted in the production of a poster exhibition with a set of aesthetic posters presenting the projects.
This exhibition was made in all the workshops organised by the FORCE project and is available by request for future shows.
1.4 Foresight methods strengths and weaknesses
There are several sources that describe, compare and analyse foresight methods. An analysis that is published on the IDSS http://idss.force-europe.eu includes a short description of some of the more popular foresight methods including their strengths and weaknesses and is based on: Popper https://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/foresight-methods; on the Millennium Project http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html; on the practical foresight guide by Jackson www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-centre/pf-ch03.pdf; and on the FOR-LEARN project http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/methods.html .
2. Producing a Foresight Model, scalable and sustainable beyond the end of the project.
This includes:
o Mapping categories of user groups and their needs to the foresight projects (methodologies) and results.
o Developing a model to enable the methods and results of security foresight projects to be structured in a way where information can be interrogated in a user friendly manner and comparisons can be made between projects.
o Identifying opportunities for triangulation (mix of methods/outcomes, combination of two methods/outcomes, and combination of different parts of methods/outcomes).
o Identifying gaps between user requirements and methods used so far.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D4.1 - FORCE Expert Workshop Report on the “International Feedback and Design Workshop for a Foresight Exploration Model”, Technische Universität Berlin
D4.2 - The Foresight Model
D4.3 - Report on design, functionality and software requirements of the online mapping tool
D4.4 - Report on Blog and Discussion Forum
D4.5 - The Foresight Model (updated)
Based on the findings from earlier Workpackages, we first identified three challenges for making foresight accessible and re-usable and outline strategies to tackle them:
1. Making foresight accessible
2. Passing through the filters – matching user needs
3. People and participation
Based on these we presented a foresight model in D4.2 (http://goo.gl/z0eNsM) breaking-down foresight projects into their component elements and their interrelations, and introduce additional meta-data and classification schemes. Complementary (other) foresight platforms were reviewed to learn from good and bad practices. A conclusions chapter (see chapter 5) of D4.2 outlines strategies for accessing this knowledge, technical requirements to employ them and recommendations for the FORCE IDSS.
The FORCE Foresight Model and Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) lays the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors.
The Foresight Model and corresponding IDSS, developed in FORCE, is of great value to policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain, assisting them to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result, their ability to strategically plan for short-term, medium-term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society will be substantially enhanced.
FORCE employed a participative and integrative approach which has enabled creation of shared long-term visions as input to present decision-making processes related to security in Europe. FORCE results will be used by policy makers and professionals who work at different levels (EU, national, regional, etc.) in the research system, the industry sector, and other domains, assisting them to carry out better threat assessments as well as to identify emerging trends and technologies with potential to cope with future threats.
The FORCE Foresight Model and IDSS is an evolvable, scalable system, sustainable beyond the end of the project, and will become more capable and powerful as future methodologies are added and more intelligent software to run the Intelligent Decision Support System becomes available. The visibility and the take up of security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users, will be significantly improved thanks to FORCE.
FORCE has created a Discussion Forum and Blog to sit alongside the FORCE Foresight Model and IDSS. It is planned for this to be a continuous exercise, sustainable beyond the project duration. In this way a common view regarding the FORCE methodology will develop regarding foresight and horizon scanning activities within and across different stakeholders such as security agencies, law enforcement organisations, industrial organisations and academic organisations. The addresses of the tools are:
- Blog - http://blog.force-europe.eu
- Forum - https://www.linkedin.com/grp/home?gid=8333947
3. Developing an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) as an end-user tool that will interface into the Foresight Model.
o Integration of the IDSS with the Foresight Model and testing the integrated system using futuristic scenarios.
o Supporting the visibility and the take up of security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users, via dissemination of the Foresight Model and corresponding IDSS.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D5.1 - Report of software selection criteria
D5.2 - Report on design of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
D5.3 - Report on Legal, Ethical and Security Design of the IDSS
D5.4 - Updated report on Design of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
3.1 FORCE Foresight Model and FORCE-IDSS in the decision making process
The main goal of decisions makers is to produce rational decisions in a rapidly changing, continuously evolving, complex, demanding and global context. The rational decisions require analysis of a huge volume of data from disparate sources to solve poorly defined problems. Decision makers use tools known as Decision Support System to drive the whole decision making process.
Intelligent Decision Support Systems – IDSS – are software tools aimed to help Decision Makers throughout the decision making process. IDSS systems fundamentally aggregate and analyse data providing the information in a useful manner whereby decision makers can observe and understand the context’s problem at a glance.
The IDSS is based on a Foresight Model developed during the project. Based on the FORCE Foresight Model, there are six different major elements in the IDSS tool:
1. Methods
2. People
3. Findings
4. Projects
5. Organisations
6. Documents
The FORCE IDSS is developed using a multi-tier architecture. Some of the advantages of this architecture include:
- Managing data is independent from the physical storage.
- Migration to new graphical environments is faster.
- It is possible to make changes on the presentation level without affecting the other three levels (Integration, Business or Data layer).
- As each tier is independent, it is possible to use different sets of developers.
- Since the client does not have direct access to the database, the business logic is more secure.
- Mission critical applications can make use of redundant application servers and DB servers. This means that when one server fails there is no data loss, because the system can always access the other server.
For further information, you can watch the following online videos:
Video 1
The main rationale behind the Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Why was it created?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
Video 2
Main Components of the Intelligent Decision support system (IDSS).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
Video 3
This video explains how to find information using the IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
Video 4
Please follow the instructions in this video, if you wish to change your name or alter the information stored in the IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
Video 5
Please follow the instructions in this video if you would like to suggest a project related to foresight security for uploading to the IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
The FORCE IDSS tool is available at https://idss.force-europe.eu .
4. Integration and Testing/validation
4.1 Introduction
To ensure that the IDSS is able to fulfil all relevant tasks to assist decision makers, researchers and law enforcement in their foresight activities and to find, assess, compare and connect foresight results, the tool was tested and validated by further developing existing futuristic scenarios. The scenarios which were produced in the FP7 security project FESTOS in 2010 were used as a testbed.
The validation was conducted within three different consecutive workshops in which project members and external experts tested the IDSS with their professional perspective.
In the preparation phase, the project team compared all four scenarios produced in the FESTOS project systematically and selected the most promising two scenarios for testing and validating the IDSS: “Cyber-Insects attack!” and “We’ll change your mind...”.
Both scenarios were analysed in-depth and main topics and keywords were identified. In one internal and two external validation workshops, keywords were fed into the IDSS in practical exercises to find and assess related findings from other security related foresight projects in the IDSS. The results were analysed and discussed regarding how these findings would influence the existing FESTOS scenarios, e.g. if they corroborate them or point to alternative directions of development. Based on the results from the two external validation workshops with security experts, the foresight expert and science fiction author Karlheinz Steinmüller enriched and further developed the two FESTOS scenarios based on the feedback.
The FORCE project partners organised two Validation Events in order to test and finalise the IDSS and to promote the IDSS among end-users. Those events took place in Berlin on the 27th of January 2016 in Berlin, Germany and on the 1st of March 2016 in Brussels, Belgium with 56 end-users participating in total, mainly security experts and personnel from law enforcement agencies.
Associated public deliverables (http://www.force-europe.eu/en/public_results/public_results_1.html):
D6.1 - Report on Integration of IDSS with Foresight Model
D6.2 - Report on scenarios to feed the IDSS
D6.3 - FORCE Scenario Validation Events
D6.4 - Report on Training Materials
4.2 Integration of IDSS with Foresight Model
D6.1 (http://goo.gl/tLvtJg) includes the architecture and design specification of the integrated FORCE IDSS platform. The integration architecture includes how to integrate the different IDSS components modules, i.e. the IDSS/Mapping tool User Interface and the Knowledge Base. Additionally, a set of test cases against which the integrated platform prototypes were technically evaluated is included.
4.3 Internal Validation Workshop
The first validation exercise in the internal workshop exercise focused on the ‘We´ll change your mind...’ scenario and showed that it is absolutely crucial to have enough information and foresight projects in the IDSS in order to find relevant results. On the other hand, it showed that it is also crucial, to be able to narrow down results, especially with a growing database, e.g. by specifying search terms (multiple word search), by connecting search terms through operations like AND and OR and by adding search criteria. Also, in order for the user to be able to find the most relevant findings first, it is necessary to highlight the search terms in the findings and finding descriptions.
Furthermore, related information and further findings related to the initial finding the user is looking should be found easily through direct linkages. The validation procedure was used to test, if the functionalities initially planned in the FORCE Foresight Model were properly implemented and useful for the search.
In the course of the validation process (between the internal and two external scenario workshops), changes and updates were made to the IDSS in order to enhance the IDSS, by:
- Uploading comprehensive information on more foresight projects to the IDSS (altogether 28 foresight projects were uploaded to the IDSS).
- Improving linkages according to the FORCE Foresight Model, such as, for example, the linkages between findings and methods (input findings) or linkages between projects and findings.
- Improving search functionalities, e.g. allowing multiple word search, search with operations (AND/OR) and adding search fields to the different entities (like ‘time-horizon’ for findings). However, search functionalities in the IDSS still could be improved in future versions of the IDSS, such as linkages across projects and adding more search fields for the different entities, e.g. organisation type for organisation.
4.4 Two Validation events with external end-users
The procedure of testing and validating the IDSS by using it to find further information and related results from other foresight projects to enhance and further develop existing scenarios from the FESTOS project, successfully validated the content, structure and functionalities of the IDSS regarding its use for foresight activities. The external workshops included a practical exercise using the IDSS with participation of experts from law enforcement as well as security and foresight research.
For each event, after a general introduction of the project and a short explanation on how to use the IDSS, the participants conducted an exercise using the IDSS led by Karlheinz Steinmüller, a science fiction author, based on the scenario from the FESTOS project on cyber-insects: “Cyber-Insects attack!”
Following this exercise, feedback was collected from participants that was quite positive, about their experience of the IDSS and included suggestions for the future of the IDSS. Much positive feedback was received from both workshops regarding the IDSS as a repository of information and data in one place for security foresight information from recent projects and studies, including a database of experts and organisations involved in security foresight.
When asked to score the key components from 1 to 5, respondents who participated in the events scaled the “Repository of reports and other documents” as the most useful element with an average of 4.5. This was followed by “contact details for experts” (4.2) and “Findings from security Foresight research with (4.1). Overall, the IDSS was strongly approved and validated by the end-users who participated at both events.
4.5 Further development of FESTOS scenarios
Based on the results of the validation exercise within the one internal and two external workshops described above the two FESTOS scenarios were edited, extended and improved, namely:
Scenario 1: Cyber-Insects attack!
Wild Card: Swarms of cyber-insects attack people and animals.
Scenario 2: We’ll change your mind...
Wild Card: A terrorist group uses a virus to change the behaviour of a portion of the population for a certain period of time.
It was shown through the validation exercise and discussions and feedback from the scenario workshops that the IDSS generated relevant results for the search terms used relating to the two FESTOS scenarios. These results, for example, supported or contradicted aspects and assumptions of the scenarios, and also motivated the workshop participants to think of new ideas and implications for the existing scenarios so that – although not all new ideas could be integrated – the existing scenarios could be enhanced and further developed.
4.6 Training Materials
The following materials were produced:
- An introductory page in the IDSS online tool to provide a general explanation of the project and the IDSS.
- A video to explain the IDSS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06X-1EnnXL4
- An FAQ to provide answers to key questions
Six questions were identified by project partners as important for users to understand. These are:
1- What is the main rationale behind the IDSS and why was it created?
2- What are the main components of the FORCE Intelligent Decision support system (IDSS)?
3- How does the search tool work in the Intelligent Decision Support System?
4- How can I find more information on the topic I am working on through the IDSS?
5- How can I suggest a project that should be included in the IDSS?
6- How can I have my project or my name removed / modified?
The list of Questions and answers can be easily accessed through the FAQ page that can be clicked in the left column of the IDSS as indicated in Figure 1 below. See Annex 1 for the full text of the FAQs.
- A YouTube channel with videos explaining how end-users can work with the IDSS (this replaces the webinar as webinars are a one-time activity and the YouTube videos will be permanently available and will reach a larger audience).
To further support the experience of end-users with the IDSS, INOVA+ created five screencasts (listed below) related to the FAQs above. A screencast is a digital recording of computer screen output (a video screen capture) that contains audio narration.
1. The main rationale behind IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
2. The main components of the IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
3. How to find information using IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
4. How to update information stored in online based system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
5. How to suggest a project related to foresight security to IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
Potential Impact:
The impact generated from FORCE is as per the expected impact defined in the call text for topic SEC-2013-6.3-1 - Horizon scanning and foresight for security research and innovation.
Impact
The project results provide more effective information into foresight for political agenda setting and also provide a better understanding of the new and upcoming technologies and long-term trends, leading to the strategic planning into security issues of relevant stakeholders.
The outcomes from FORCE can help decision makers to better assess investment alternatives for prevention or preparedness and to make the appropriate trade-offs between security and other societal objectives such as the right to privacy and the freedom of scientific research.
FORCE contributes:
• to more effective foresight information, since the project has laid the foundation for a continuous assessment of threat anticipation and foresight processes within the European community, thus creating the environment and new opportunities for better networking and coordination among the relevant actors.
• to the improvement of the political agenda setting, due to the fact that the Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) developed in FORCE, is of great value to policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain by assisting them to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. As a result, their ability to strategically plan for short-term, medium-term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society will be substantially enhanced.
• to a better understanding of long term trends and new technologies, because the FORCE participative and integrative approach enables the creation of shared medium and long-term visions to inform present decision-making processes related to security in Europe. FORCE results can be used by policy makers and professionals who work at different levels (EU, national, regional, etc.) in research, industry and other domains, assisting them to carry out better threat assessments as well as to identify emerging trends and technologies with potential to cope with future threats.
• to providing a significant improvement of input to the strategic planning of relevant stakeholders by raising the visibility and take up of EU security research results at stakeholder level, especially focusing on the end users.
In terms of dissemination, the project partners have been very active in the dissemination of the project outcomes and activities, supported by a set of dissemination materials. We believe that the project has reached the expected impact in terms of dissemination. See public deliverable “D2.4 - Updated Report on Dissemination Activities” for further details on dissemination activities.
For dissemination purposes the project developed:
• Visual identity
• Website – www.force-europe.eu
• Flyer - A first version of the flyer was created to be used in several dissemination events.
• Brochure - The project brochure (threefold) was developed and printed. These brochures were printed in offset but developed taking into account that they can be printed using a common printer at the partner premises.
• Poster - The project poster (A2 and A3 sizes) was developed and printed.
• Roll-up - The project roll-up was developed and produced.
• Folder - A folder to be used at the events organised by the project was developed and printed.
• Pen - A set of pens with the FORCE logo was produced to be distributed during FORCE project events and at other dissemination activities.
• Letterhead sheet - A template letterhead sheet was developed in order to be used for invitations, press releases and event agendas.
• Project’s PPT presentation - A brief Powerpoint Presentation introducing the project (Powerpoint) for use by the consortium members.
• 3 Newsletters - http://goo.gl/ZMfo91
• 3 Policy Briefs - http://goo.gl/SszXuE
• Videos - A video was produced and uploaded on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06X-1EnnXL4
Additionally we created 5 videos about the IDSS:
1. The main rationale behind IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P3jL7PUOPg
2. The main components of the IDSS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRzboD__Sdc
3. How to find information using IDSS search tool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyI_fgXm3Nk
4. How to update information stored in online based system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMVK3MV-4zI
5. How to suggest a project related to foresight security to IDSS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqfpkhmREO4
• IDSS Infographic - An infographic was designed and published in order to publicise IDSS statistics. - http://goo.gl/EPGYHo
• Flash News - In order to complement the newsletters, a “flash” news was produced and dispatched in February 2016. - http://goo.gl/ZMfo91
For further information on these materials, download the FORCE Dissemination Materials document available on the website: http://goo.gl/uQaOC2
FORCE consortium members participated in the following events:
• RACE2050 Final Conference - 29.01.15 - Brussels, Belgium
• Innovationsforum “Zivile Sicherheit” - 7.-9.5.2014 - Berlin, Germany
• INSEC Final Conference - 11.07.14 - Lisbon, Portugal
• HLS14 - 9-11.11.14 - Tel-Aviv, Israel
• Techitaly2014 - 25.09.2014 - Brussels, Belgium
• Workshop for the Final Evaluation of the Security Research Actions - 29.04.2015 - Brussels, Belgium
• Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems - 11-12.06.2015 - Turku, Finland
• The Future of Mobilities: Flows, Transport and Communication - 14-17.09.2015 - Napoli, Italy
• Get involved in shaping the future of European Security Research - 15-16.09.2015 - Berlin, Germany
• BMBF "End User Key - demand orientation as a success factor“ - 14-15.10.2015 - Brussels, Belgium
• ICT 2015 - 20-22.10.2015 - Lisbon, Portugal
• ESR Event - 4-6.11.2015 Dublin, Ireland
• DRIVER Innovation for Crisis Management (I4CM) conference - 8-9.12.2015 Berlin, Germany
• SEC21 Pan European Networks of practitioners and other actors in the field of security - 01.02.2016 - Nice, France
• Security Jam 2016 - 25-28.04.2016 - Online and in Brussels
And organised the following events:
• FORCE Expert Workshop UK - 09.01.15 - NCA (UK)
• FORCE expert workshop Israel - 15.01.2015 - Tel Aviv University
• FORCE expert workshop Portugal - 22.01.2015 - Policia Judiciária, Portugal
• FORCE International Feedback and Design Workshop for a Foresight Exploration Model - 24-25.02.15 - Technische Universität Berlin
• Expert workshop in Spain - 17.06.2015 - Madrid, Spain
• Validation event – Berlin – 27.01.2016 - Berlin, Germany
• Validation event – Brussels – 01.03.2016 - Berlin, Germany
FORCE has also also developed synergies with the fooling projects/networks:
• ACRIMAS - Aftermath Crisis Management System-of-systems Demonstration Phase I
• AF3 - Advanced Forest Fire Fighting
• Connect2SEA – Connecting ICT in Europe and South East Asia
• DESSI - Decision Support on Security Investment
• EFP - European Foresight Platform - supporting forward looking decision making
• ETCETERA - Evaluation of critical and emerging technologies for the elaboration of a security research agenda
• ETTIS – European security trends and threats in society
• EU-GRASP - Changing multilateralism: The EU as a global-regional actor in security and peace
• INSEC - Increase Innovation and Research within Security Organisations
• INTEG-RISK - Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging, New Technology related Risks
• LASIE - Large Area Solid State Intelligent Efficient luminaires
• Margin – Tackle Insecurity in Marginalized Areas
• Race2050 - Responsible innovation Agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050
• SANDERA - The Future Impact of Security and Defence Policies on the European Research Area
• SECURENV - Assessment of environmental accidents from a security perspective
• SecurePART - Increasing the engagement of civil society in security research
• Security Jam
• STAR-TRANS - Strategic Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning in Interconnected Transport Networks
• Technologieradar BKA
• VALUESEC - Mastering the value function of security measures
In terms of exploitation, results from FORCE will be exploited via the following means:
• The European Commission should encourage current and future Security Foresight Projects to map and update their work and results to the FORCE IDSS.
• End-user security organisations will be encouraged to bring the FORCE IDSS in-house so they can customise it as an internal tool.
• Academic organisations can use the public version of the FORCE IDSS for purposes of research and training.
• The FORCE partners will apply for a follow-up project within H2020 at the earliest opportunity. It is recommended that a suitable topic is included in an upcoming call.
• The FORCE IDSS will be continually disseminated to relevant stakeholders in the Security domain
• The FORCE web-site and IDSS website will be maintained for the next 5 years by the partners.
• The FORCE IDSS can alternatively be used for foresight activities in domains other than Security e.g. energy, Health – in order to bring work and results from FP projects together, and enable comparisons to be made and threats and trends to be identified.
Exploitation per se is not the main goal of Coordination Actions. However the results have been and will continue to be broadly disseminated to interested parties. Bringing together various actors at the FORCE workshops has contributed to this activity.
As part of the sustainability of the project, it is the intention of the project consortium to continue with the promotion of the FORCE results and IDSS. The main dissemination channels will be at National and European levels via the project website, participation at relevant events and the FORCE Blog and Linked-in group. The website will be available and updated after the end of the project.
The database of stakeholders created during the project will be used to keep them informed about security foresight and at the same time will be used to promote the IDSS as we already did on the 14th April of 2016 by promoting the Security Jam 2016 event. During this event, EFPC as project coordinator and GLOBAZ as the dissemination leader, participated in some activities presenting the FORCE and IDSS.
The FORCE partners are very active in the security foresight area and will participate, as they did during the project, at several events at National and European level. Examples of events:
• Security research & innovation event 2016
• H2020 Security info days
• Security Research Event 2016
List of Websites:
www.force-europe.eu
Coordinator’s Contact details:
michael@efpcgroup.com