"The state-of the art in the field of Mediterranean cyclones suffers from the lack of studies addressing the relationship of cyclones with extreme rainfall, but most important from the quantification of the different processes contributing to these extremes. New observation and modelling approaches have been used in EXMECY, providing unprecedented results on the quantification of the contribution of WCBs and DC to rainfall close to cyclones. Our results provide an insight into the processes where forecasters and model developers should give priority for improving weather or climate prediction. Furthermore, we focused on DC and its climatology through the detection of thunderstorms. A novel methodology has been applied to a wide dataset of lightning observations in order to isolate lightning clusters, eventually identified as thunderstorms. Results documented for the first time the thunderstorms climatology over the Mediterranean, providing an insight to their morphological characteristics (Fig. 2). Concerning cyclone dynamics, we focused on tropical-like cyclones providing a new point of view on the processes that govern the life-cycle of these systems. The application of dedicated tools to tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones permitted for the first time the quantification of the relative contribution of upper tropospheric precursors and DC to the intensification of these systems. Results revealed a rather close relationship between tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean and subtropical systems occurring over the Oceans. In this sense, a new cyclones category has been suggested to occur in the Mediterranean basin. This result bridges Mediterranean cyclones as a unique cyclones category with other cyclone systems occurring over Oceans and thus open perspectives to new collaborations and to transferring knowledge, tools and methods from the widely researched tropical/subtropical/mid-latitude systems to the relatively ""grey"" area of Mediterranean cyclones. Finally, a novel modelling diagnostic tool, developed in the framework of EXMECY, has been applied to Mediterranean cyclones in order to delineate the contribution of different processes to the ""water ingredients"" forming extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean due to cyclones (Fig. 3). This methodology provides a new insight on the location of water sources to Mediterranean cyclones, providing an insight to the role of synoptic scale meteorology not only in provoking Mediterranean cyclones but also in fuelling these systems with moist air originating from the Atlantic Ocean. These new results suggest that proper forecasting of weather extremes over the Mediterranean do not only reside on the credible reproduction of Mediterranean cyclones, but also to the realistic representation of evaporation over the Atlantic Ocean. This sets new priorities to the credible prediction of Mediterranean high-impact weather.
Overall, the research conducted within the framework of EXMECY is inline with the constant demand of forecasters and civil protection for credible prediction of rainfall extreme events at various timescales ranging from the short-term through seasonal and up to climate scale. In the long term, this project provides priorities for improving numerical models to simulate Mediterranean cyclones and their impacts on the environment. The new methodologies and tools will remain available for continuous exploitation from the Researcher but also from collaborators who may freely make use of them upon request. A solid four-publications record assures the visibility of EXMECY in subsequent years and certifies the quality of work achieved during this project.
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