Obiettivo Volcanic eruptions occur with a frequency that is inversely proportional to their magnitude. Datasets of natural volcanic events, currently used to determine the recurrence rate of volcanic eruptions are intrinsically biased. Combining physical modelling of processes with detailed statistical analysis has been demonstrated essential for assessing reliably the recurrence rate of natural hazards, such as floods and earthquakes. This would be the first attempt to apply a similar, integrated approach to explosive volcanic eruptions. The high-gain final target of FEVER is to produce a physically based statistical model able to ForEcast the recurrence rate of Volcanic Eruptions both at regional and global scale. This is the first project of this kind and consequently involves a significant risk. Because 500 million people live in proximity of volcanoes and eruptions have a significant social and economical impact, forecasting the recurrence rate of volcanic eruption remains a great challenge in Science. This project builds on two main directions of my research: a) Thermo-mechanical and statistical modelling targeting the identification of the main physical factors controlling the recurrence rate of volcanic eruptions. We showed that the flux of magma from depth directly controls the magnitude of the largest possible eruptions. Thus, b) we developed a novel method to determine such magma fluxes. These two lines of research combine perfectly in FEVER and will be integrated to answer questions such as: What is the probability of an eruption similar to the Tambora 1815 to occur in the next 100 years on Earth or in Europe? What is the largest physically possible eruption that can occur in Europe? The high-gain target of FEVER is to mitigate the impact of volcanic eruptions on our society, by producing research of interest for governmental agencies dealing with location of strategic infrastructures, and for businesses such as aviation. Campo scientifico natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographyglaciologyglacial geologynatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeologyvolcanologynatural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomyplanetary sciencesplanetsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disastersnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsstatistics and probability Programma(i) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Argomento(i) ERC-StG-2015 - ERC Starting Grant Invito a presentare proposte ERC-2015-STG Vedi altri progetti per questo bando Meccanismo di finanziamento ERC-STG - Starting Grant Istituzione ospitante UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE Contribution nette de l'UE € 1 458 192,00 Indirizzo RUE DU GENERAL DUFOUR 24 1211 Geneve Svizzera Mostra sulla mappa Regione Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Région lémanique Genève Tipo di attività Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Collegamenti Contatta l’organizzazione Opens in new window Sito web Opens in new window Partecipazione a programmi di R&I dell'UE Opens in new window Rete di collaborazione HORIZON Opens in new window Costo totale € 1 458 192,00 Beneficiari (1) Classifica in ordine alfabetico Classifica per Contributo netto dell'UE Espandi tutto Riduci tutto UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE Svizzera Contribution nette de l'UE € 1 458 192,00 Indirizzo RUE DU GENERAL DUFOUR 24 1211 Geneve Mostra sulla mappa Regione Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Région lémanique Genève Tipo di attività Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Collegamenti Contatta l’organizzazione Opens in new window Sito web Opens in new window Partecipazione a programmi di R&I dell'UE Opens in new window Rete di collaborazione HORIZON Opens in new window Costo totale € 1 458 192,00
