Periodic Reporting for period 4 - POLICIES_FOR_PEACE (The economics of lasting peace: The role of policies and institutions)
Berichtszeitraum: 2021-02-01 bis 2022-07-31
Worldwide armed conflict is a very serious problem leading to a large-scale death toll and to a whole series of detrimental effects on the lives of the people affected. While this has already been a severe problem some years ago, the number of conflicts around the world have –if anything—increased in the meantime. A growing academic literature aims at explaining the root causes and consequences of fighting. While much of the existing academic work on the topic tends to focus on factors that are hard to modify, only limited attention has been directed so far to study what actual policies can best curb fighting. To address this, the ERC project POLICIES_FOR_PEACE has studied what key institutions and policies are best suited to reduce incentives for engaging in appropriation and armed conflict. For achieving and sustaining peace it is crucial to get the incentives right of all main actors in society.
In particular, this project has studied systematically a series of key policies and particular political institutions that have the potential to achieve and sustain peace in both the short and long run. This focus on lasting, sustainable peace makes it already clear that short-run military repression ignoring the sources of discontent can typically not be a sustainable solution for lasting peace. This project has shown among others that democratic political institutions, as well as education and health policies are key ingredients to achieve lasting peace.
In particular, this project has studied systematically a series of key policies and particular political institutions that have the potential to achieve and sustain peace in both the short and long run. This focus on lasting, sustainable peace makes it already clear that short-run military repression ignoring the sources of discontent can typically not be a sustainable solution for lasting peace. This project has shown among others that democratic political institutions, as well as education and health policies are key ingredients to achieve lasting peace.
The current ERC project is divided into six subprojects which all aim to investigate particular policy angles that can promote peace.
Subproject 1 studies the role of natural resources in conflict, and in particular the impact of funding on fighting. One highlight of this subproject is the publication of the paper "This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa" (with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier and Mathias Thoenig) in the American Economic Review. It shows that more funding due to natural resource rents makes armed fighting more feasible and that the transparency / traceability of minerals and corporate social responsibility foster peace. It has been discussed widely in the media and has attracted over 550 citations in Google Scholar to date.
Subproject 2 studies the impact of power-sharing and of spatial interaction, drawing among others on insights from Northern Ireland. We have produced two articles, namely "Can Power-Sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland" (joint with Hannes Mueller) that has been published in Economic Policy, and "Ethnic Violence Across Space" (joint with Hannes Mueller and David Schoenholzer), published in the Economic Journal. They show, respectively, that power-sharing results in significantly lower fatality numbers and that spatial proximity of adversary groups can increase risks.
Subproject 3 links networks to conflict. The article "Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory" (with Quentin Gallea), published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) shows that strategic territory may bear lower risks in periods of globalization. This article has won the SNIS International Geneva Award.
Subproject 4 studies to what extent democratic institutions and public policies can lower fighting risks. Together with Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti and Mathias Thoenig have written a working paper on “Ethnic conflicts and the informational dividend of democracy”, which is now under Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA). We have also linked institutions and policies to historical violence in Italy and ethno-linguistic tensions in urbanization in the articles “Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily (together with Gema Lax Martinez and Alessandro Saia), which has now been published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (JEBO) and in the paper “Ethno-Linguistic Diversity and Urban Agglomeration” (joint with Ulrich Eberle, Vernon Henderson and Kurt Schmidheiny) that has been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Further, together with Alessandro Saia we have written a working paper called “Ballot or Bullet: The impact of UK’s representation of the people act on peace and prosperity”, that has received a conditional acceptance at the Economic Journal. The overarching conclusion of these papers is that indeed the details of institutional design can have a crucial, peace-promoting effect.
In subproject 5 –together with Alessandro Saia—we have written a working paper called “Education and Conflict: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia” finding that school construction reduces conflict.
In subproject 6 we have written the working paper “Medication Against Conflict”, together with Andrea Berlanda, Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito and Uwe Sunde. It finds that health policies can foster conflict reduction.
Finally, drawing on the general insights of this project, we have written several survey pieces on conflict, as listed in the publication list.
There have also been various dissemination activities. In terms of dissemination, we have first of all co-organized four conferences/workshops on the topic of the ERC project. The research results have been presented in various seminars and conference talks and we have also written various newspaper and blog-style articles.
Overall, the results of the ERC project POLICIES_FOR_PEACE suggest that wars are far from being an unpreventable fatality, but that indeed clever design of institutions and policies have a strong pacifying effect.
Subproject 1 studies the role of natural resources in conflict, and in particular the impact of funding on fighting. One highlight of this subproject is the publication of the paper "This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa" (with Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier and Mathias Thoenig) in the American Economic Review. It shows that more funding due to natural resource rents makes armed fighting more feasible and that the transparency / traceability of minerals and corporate social responsibility foster peace. It has been discussed widely in the media and has attracted over 550 citations in Google Scholar to date.
Subproject 2 studies the impact of power-sharing and of spatial interaction, drawing among others on insights from Northern Ireland. We have produced two articles, namely "Can Power-Sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland" (joint with Hannes Mueller) that has been published in Economic Policy, and "Ethnic Violence Across Space" (joint with Hannes Mueller and David Schoenholzer), published in the Economic Journal. They show, respectively, that power-sharing results in significantly lower fatality numbers and that spatial proximity of adversary groups can increase risks.
Subproject 3 links networks to conflict. The article "Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory" (with Quentin Gallea), published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) shows that strategic territory may bear lower risks in periods of globalization. This article has won the SNIS International Geneva Award.
Subproject 4 studies to what extent democratic institutions and public policies can lower fighting risks. Together with Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti and Mathias Thoenig have written a working paper on “Ethnic conflicts and the informational dividend of democracy”, which is now under Revise and Resubmit at the Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA). We have also linked institutions and policies to historical violence in Italy and ethno-linguistic tensions in urbanization in the articles “Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily (together with Gema Lax Martinez and Alessandro Saia), which has now been published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (JEBO) and in the paper “Ethno-Linguistic Diversity and Urban Agglomeration” (joint with Ulrich Eberle, Vernon Henderson and Kurt Schmidheiny) that has been published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Further, together with Alessandro Saia we have written a working paper called “Ballot or Bullet: The impact of UK’s representation of the people act on peace and prosperity”, that has received a conditional acceptance at the Economic Journal. The overarching conclusion of these papers is that indeed the details of institutional design can have a crucial, peace-promoting effect.
In subproject 5 –together with Alessandro Saia—we have written a working paper called “Education and Conflict: Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia” finding that school construction reduces conflict.
In subproject 6 we have written the working paper “Medication Against Conflict”, together with Andrea Berlanda, Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito and Uwe Sunde. It finds that health policies can foster conflict reduction.
Finally, drawing on the general insights of this project, we have written several survey pieces on conflict, as listed in the publication list.
There have also been various dissemination activities. In terms of dissemination, we have first of all co-organized four conferences/workshops on the topic of the ERC project. The research results have been presented in various seminars and conference talks and we have also written various newspaper and blog-style articles.
Overall, the results of the ERC project POLICIES_FOR_PEACE suggest that wars are far from being an unpreventable fatality, but that indeed clever design of institutions and policies have a strong pacifying effect.
All the research questions studied above and results found are novel, while of course, as always, building on the past great work of other scholars around the world. The general approach of all subprojects will in my view have an impact in the medium-run. The basic idea that institutions and public policies matter heavily for the prospects of peace is gaining more and more traction, and democratic institutions and public policies become more and more focal points in current research on conflict taking place in various institutions around the world.