Periodic Reporting for period 3 - MAT_STOCKS (Understanding the Role of Material Stock Patterns for the Transformation to a Sustainable Society)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2021-03-01 al 2022-08-31
Societies’ resource use (flows of materials and energy), combined with societal material stocks such as buildings, infrastructures and machinery deliver services to society. These services, for example shelter and thermal comfort, water supply, nutrition, mobility, social participation and access to healthcare or education, are of key importance for social wellbeing. Material stocks are crucially relevant for sustainability due to their social, economic and ecological implications, given that most resource uses and emissions stem from producing, maintaining and using stocks. Patterns of material stocks create long-term lock-in of societies into specific ways of using resources (land, energy, etc.), and their “efficiency” of service provision (required stocks and resource flows per service unit) is highly variable.
MAT_STOCKS aims to analyze the relations between material stocks, resource flows and service provision (i.e. the so-called “stock-flow-service nexus”) at various spatial and temporal scales. This requires developing a comprehensive global country-level database on material stocks, which is so far lacking. This information is then combined with existing indicators for material and energy flows, emissions and other resource-related environmental pressures, as well as with partially available, partially to be developed indicators on services and societal wellbeing. MAT_STOCKS aims at long-term analyses (>100 years), cross-country analyses, in-depth case studies, as well as establishment and analysis of spatially explicit material stock data.
The overarching goal of MAT_STOCKS research is to provide crucial insights for sustainability transformations, assuming that substantial changes to currently prevailing patterns of stock-flow-service interrelations, and in particular in material stock patterns, are required to support societal wellbeing at ecologically sustainable and therefore lower levels of biophysical resource consumption.
MAT_STOCKS aims to analyze the relations between material stocks, resource flows and service provision (i.e. the so-called “stock-flow-service nexus”) at various spatial and temporal scales. This requires developing a comprehensive global country-level database on material stocks, which is so far lacking. This information is then combined with existing indicators for material and energy flows, emissions and other resource-related environmental pressures, as well as with partially available, partially to be developed indicators on services and societal wellbeing. MAT_STOCKS aims at long-term analyses (>100 years), cross-country analyses, in-depth case studies, as well as establishment and analysis of spatially explicit material stock data.
The overarching goal of MAT_STOCKS research is to provide crucial insights for sustainability transformations, assuming that substantial changes to currently prevailing patterns of stock-flow-service interrelations, and in particular in material stock patterns, are required to support societal wellbeing at ecologically sustainable and therefore lower levels of biophysical resource consumption.
Firstly, a large-scale effort has been launched to establish a global country-level database of societal material stocks covering the last >100 years. This database is generated with “inflow-driven” social metabolism methods on the basis of country-level statistical data on material extraction, production and trade. Substantial methodological developments have been and are still required to establish that database. Data collection work is largely finished, and several papers have already been published or are under review/in preparation that stem from intermediate steps of that work and in-depth case studies. The database will have intermediate resolution in terms of material groups (15-20) as well as types of material stocks (e.g. buildings of various categories, transport infrastructures, machinery, etc.). In particular, distinguishing different kinds of material stocks is challenging. Methods have been developed and are currently being tested. The dynamic data integration model MISO will be used to establish the database; it will also be capable of performing a quantitative uncertainty analysis using Monte-Carlo-Simulation (MCS) principles. Several preliminary versions of the model have already been implemented, the final version is currently being completed.
Secondly, conceptual issues related to measurement of services derived from combinations of stocks and flows as well as related aspects of social wellbeing have been intensively discussed throughout the period. An international expert workshop has been organized that has helped establishing good collaborations with high-level experts in that field, including e.g. Julia Steinberger and collaborators (University of Leeds), Jonathan Cullen and collaborators (University of Cambridge), Tiago Domingos, Tania Sousa and collaborators (University of Lisbon) and Felix Creutzig (Technical University and Mercator Institute for the Global Commons, Berlin), as well as researchers from the Institute of Socio-Ecological Research (ISOE) in Frankfurt. This discussion process has resulted in several conceptual papers, some of which are already published, but has also revealed huge difficulties in adequately grasping important aspects of services, social wellbeing, provisioning systems and other related issues with quantitative indicators. A key outcome of this conceptual research and development process has been the decision to go for a pluralistic approach along two main avenues: (a) macro-scale indicators of societal wellbeing for statistical analyses of time-series and panel data and (b) novel meso-scale indicators that can be used in sector-specific studies across scales. In this sense, different types of indicators are used in problem-adequate and context-specific approaches. Empirical efforts along these lines are ongoing, with several papers published, under review and in preparation. Work has started to empirically analyze the stock-flow-service nexus at various scales, including long-term global, world-regional, as well as national case studies (e.g. for the UK and the USA) and city-level studies (for Vienna).
Thirdly, the other large empirical research effort in this project has been launched to derive material stock patterns from the newest European remote-sensing data products and other earth-observation data, together with project partner Humboldt-University (HU). A considerable infrastructure for assimilating and processing huge datasets has been set up and is fully functional, based on the computing and data infrastructures of the Vienna Scientific Cluster and the Earth Observation Data Centre (EODC). Several methodological papers have already been published or accepted that solve crucial methodological aspects of the creation of material stock maps. Maps of material stocks in buildings and infrastructures (5 subcategories) have been established for Austria and Germany, and a related paper is currently under review. Key input datasets for material stock maps for other countries (Japan, Slovakia, the UK and the USA) are being prepared and work is under way to map material stocks for these countries as well.
A fourth research strand is the establishment of a dynamic model framework covering country-level to world-regional material stocks, resource use, energy and emissions for scenario modelling. Several intermediate steps have been undertaken towards that end. Two papers on the importance of future material stock trajectories for resource use patterns and for global GHG emissions and the Paris target have been published in an influential journal, while several other papers have been submitted or are in preparation.
Secondly, conceptual issues related to measurement of services derived from combinations of stocks and flows as well as related aspects of social wellbeing have been intensively discussed throughout the period. An international expert workshop has been organized that has helped establishing good collaborations with high-level experts in that field, including e.g. Julia Steinberger and collaborators (University of Leeds), Jonathan Cullen and collaborators (University of Cambridge), Tiago Domingos, Tania Sousa and collaborators (University of Lisbon) and Felix Creutzig (Technical University and Mercator Institute for the Global Commons, Berlin), as well as researchers from the Institute of Socio-Ecological Research (ISOE) in Frankfurt. This discussion process has resulted in several conceptual papers, some of which are already published, but has also revealed huge difficulties in adequately grasping important aspects of services, social wellbeing, provisioning systems and other related issues with quantitative indicators. A key outcome of this conceptual research and development process has been the decision to go for a pluralistic approach along two main avenues: (a) macro-scale indicators of societal wellbeing for statistical analyses of time-series and panel data and (b) novel meso-scale indicators that can be used in sector-specific studies across scales. In this sense, different types of indicators are used in problem-adequate and context-specific approaches. Empirical efforts along these lines are ongoing, with several papers published, under review and in preparation. Work has started to empirically analyze the stock-flow-service nexus at various scales, including long-term global, world-regional, as well as national case studies (e.g. for the UK and the USA) and city-level studies (for Vienna).
Thirdly, the other large empirical research effort in this project has been launched to derive material stock patterns from the newest European remote-sensing data products and other earth-observation data, together with project partner Humboldt-University (HU). A considerable infrastructure for assimilating and processing huge datasets has been set up and is fully functional, based on the computing and data infrastructures of the Vienna Scientific Cluster and the Earth Observation Data Centre (EODC). Several methodological papers have already been published or accepted that solve crucial methodological aspects of the creation of material stock maps. Maps of material stocks in buildings and infrastructures (5 subcategories) have been established for Austria and Germany, and a related paper is currently under review. Key input datasets for material stock maps for other countries (Japan, Slovakia, the UK and the USA) are being prepared and work is under way to map material stocks for these countries as well.
A fourth research strand is the establishment of a dynamic model framework covering country-level to world-regional material stocks, resource use, energy and emissions for scenario modelling. Several intermediate steps have been undertaken towards that end. Two papers on the importance of future material stock trajectories for resource use patterns and for global GHG emissions and the Paris target have been published in an influential journal, while several other papers have been submitted or are in preparation.
The project has already made substantial progress in several respects:
• Development of methods to establish country-level to global material stock databases for long periods of time that differentiate materials and types of stocks
• Long-term material stock time-series for two national cases (UK, USA) and nine world-regions covering ~150 years
• Development of methods to create material stock maps and key underlying data layers (e.g. built-up area, building height, settlement types) based on Sentinel-1 and -2 data as well as Open-Street-Map data
• Creation of material stock maps for three countries (Austria, Germany, Slovakia)
• Development of global three-region and nine-region models of material stocks and related GHG emissions, as well as scenario projections into the middle-range future (2050)
• Conceptual advances in terms of defining and measuring services (Energy Service Cascade, provisioning systems, and the proposal of a complementary stock-flow-practice nexus).
Until the end of the project, the following progress can be expected
• A novel country-level database of material stocks and flows for ~160 countries, covering ~150 years and 15-20 materials, fully consistent with established methods of economy-wide material flow accounting which are widely used in national statistical reporting (e.g. UN System of Environmental and Economic Accounts)
• Nation-wide, spatially explicit high-resolution datasets of land cover surface fractions and building height will be produced for at least seven countries (Austria, Germany, Slovakia, UK, USA, Japan, India) as key input to stocks mapping.
• A robust set of methods to establish material stock maps from Sentinel-1 and -2 data in combination with OSM and other Earth Observation methods, as well as material intensity factors from Industrial Ecology
• Spatially explicit and high-resolution material stock maps for those countries. Stocks will be quantified by stock type and category.
• Assessment of advantages/possible disadvantages of using material stock maps for purposes where currently night-time-light data are widely used.
• Material stocks established as an important topic in Industrial Ecology and sociometabolic research in other research fields (e.g. Ecological Economics, Social Ecology)
• Global scenarios of material and energy flows, material stocks and GHG emissions until 2050, and analysis of the implications of different material stock-flow scenarios for the Paris target
• Empirical analyses of the stock-flow-service nexus for several cases, showcasing potentials but also possible shortcomings of the SFS-nexus approach for sustainability (transition) research
• Analysis of policy options to forge more sustainable material stock patterns, with a focus on transport/traffic, at municipal and regional scales for the larger Vienna region
• A synthesis of the importance of material stock research for sustainability (transformation) research to be achieved towards the end of the project
• Development of methods to establish country-level to global material stock databases for long periods of time that differentiate materials and types of stocks
• Long-term material stock time-series for two national cases (UK, USA) and nine world-regions covering ~150 years
• Development of methods to create material stock maps and key underlying data layers (e.g. built-up area, building height, settlement types) based on Sentinel-1 and -2 data as well as Open-Street-Map data
• Creation of material stock maps for three countries (Austria, Germany, Slovakia)
• Development of global three-region and nine-region models of material stocks and related GHG emissions, as well as scenario projections into the middle-range future (2050)
• Conceptual advances in terms of defining and measuring services (Energy Service Cascade, provisioning systems, and the proposal of a complementary stock-flow-practice nexus).
Until the end of the project, the following progress can be expected
• A novel country-level database of material stocks and flows for ~160 countries, covering ~150 years and 15-20 materials, fully consistent with established methods of economy-wide material flow accounting which are widely used in national statistical reporting (e.g. UN System of Environmental and Economic Accounts)
• Nation-wide, spatially explicit high-resolution datasets of land cover surface fractions and building height will be produced for at least seven countries (Austria, Germany, Slovakia, UK, USA, Japan, India) as key input to stocks mapping.
• A robust set of methods to establish material stock maps from Sentinel-1 and -2 data in combination with OSM and other Earth Observation methods, as well as material intensity factors from Industrial Ecology
• Spatially explicit and high-resolution material stock maps for those countries. Stocks will be quantified by stock type and category.
• Assessment of advantages/possible disadvantages of using material stock maps for purposes where currently night-time-light data are widely used.
• Material stocks established as an important topic in Industrial Ecology and sociometabolic research in other research fields (e.g. Ecological Economics, Social Ecology)
• Global scenarios of material and energy flows, material stocks and GHG emissions until 2050, and analysis of the implications of different material stock-flow scenarios for the Paris target
• Empirical analyses of the stock-flow-service nexus for several cases, showcasing potentials but also possible shortcomings of the SFS-nexus approach for sustainability (transition) research
• Analysis of policy options to forge more sustainable material stock patterns, with a focus on transport/traffic, at municipal and regional scales for the larger Vienna region
• A synthesis of the importance of material stock research for sustainability (transformation) research to be achieved towards the end of the project