Emergent Constraints on Climate-Land feedbacks in the Earth System

Project Information

ECCLES

Grant agreement ID: 742472

DOI

10.3030/742472

Project closed

EC signature date 16 June 2017

Start date 1 October 2017

End date 30 September 2023

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 2 249 834,00

EU contribution

€ 2 249 834,00

Coordinated by

THE UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
United Kingdom

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (34)

Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems

Author(s): Paul D. L. Ritchie; Hassan Alkhayuon; Peter M. Cox; Sebastian Wieczorek
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 16, 2023, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-669-2023

Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming

Author(s): Rebecca M. Varney; Sarah E. Chadburn; Eleanor J. Burke; Simon Jones; Andy J. Wiltshire; Peter M. Cox
Published in: Biogeosciences, 2023, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023

Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models

Author(s): Isobel M. Parry; Paul D. L. Ritchie; Peter M. Cox
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022

Modelling tropical forest responses to drought and El Niño with a stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics

Author(s): Eller, Cleiton B; Rowland, Lucy; Oliveira, Rafael S; Bittencourt, Paulo RL; Barros, Fernanda V; Da Costa, Antonio CL; Meir, Patrick; Friend, Andrew; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Sitch, Stephen; Cox, Peter
Published in: Eller , C B , Rowland , L , Oliveira , R S , Bittencourt , P R L , Barros , F V , Da Costa , A C L , Meir , P , Friend , A D , Mencuccini , M , Sitch , S & Cox , P 2018 , ' Modelling tropical forest responses to drought and El Niño with a stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics ' , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol. 373 , no. 1760 , pp. 201, Issue 3, 2018, ISSN 0028-646X
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.17863/cam.33121

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities

Author(s): Mark S. Williamson; Chad W. Thackeray; Peter M. Cox; Alex Hall; Chris Huntingford; Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
Published in: Reviews of Modern Physics, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 0034-6861
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/revmodphys.93.025004

Seeking more robust early warning signals for climate tipping points: the Ratio of Spectra method (ROSA)

Author(s): Joseph J. Clarke; Chris Huntingford; Paul D.L. Ritchie; Peter M. Cox
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8d

Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations

Author(s): Chris Huntingford; Peter M. Cox; Mark S. Williamson; Joseph J. Clarke; Paul D. L. Ritchie
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-433-2023

Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Author(s): Rebecca M. Varney; Sarah E. Chadburn; Eleanor J. Burke; Peter M. Cox
Published in: Biogeosciences, 2022, ISSN 1726-4170
Publisher: European Geosciences Union (EGU).

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Author(s): Rebecca M. Varney, Sarah E. Chadburn, Pierre Friedlingstein, Eleanor J. Burke, Charles D. Koven, Gustaf Hugelius, Peter M. Cox
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 11/1, 2020, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8

Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce

Author(s): Arthur Argles, Eddy Robertson, Jon Moore, Peter Cox et al.
Published in: Science Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-39810-2

Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED version 1.0): a parsimonious approach to modelling vegetation dynamics in Earth system models

Author(s): Arthur P. K. Argles, Jonathan R. Moore, Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Anna B. Harper, Chris D. Jones, Peter M. Cox
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/9, 2020, Page(s) 4067-4089, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020

Combined direct and indirect impacts of warming on the productivity of coral reef fishes

Author(s): Peter Mumby; Alice Rogers; Yves-Marie Bozec; Rebecca Millington; Peter Cox
Published in: Ecosphere, 2022, ISSN 2150-8925
Publisher: ESA
DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4108

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability

Author(s): Arthur P. K. Argles; Jonathan R. Moore; Peter M. Cox
Published in: PLOS Climate, 2022, ISSN 2767-3200
Publisher: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000068

A theory of demographic optimality in forests

Author(s): Jonathan Moore, Arthur Argles, Peter Cox
Published in: Science Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-44860-7

Equilibrium forest demography explains the distribution of tree sizes across North America

Author(s): Jonathan R Moore, Kai Zhu, Chris Huntingford, Peter M Cox
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 13/8, 2018, Page(s) 084019, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aad6d1

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

Author(s): Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Mark S. Williamson
Published in: Nature, Issue 553/7688, 2018, Page(s) 319-322, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/nature25450

Modelling tropical forest responses to drought and El Niño with a stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics

Author(s): Cleiton B. Eller, Lucy Rowland, Rafael S. Oliveira, Paulo R. L. Bittencourt, Fernanda V. Barros, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Andrew D. Friend, Maurizio Mencuccini, Stephen Sitch, Peter Cox
Published in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Issue 373/1760, 2018, Page(s) 20170315, ISSN 0962-8436
Publisher: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0315

Cox et al. reply

Author(s): Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Chris Huntingford
Published in: Nature, Issue 563/7729, 2018, Page(s) E10-E15, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0641-x

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Author(s): Veronika Eyring, Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D. Collins, Bettina K. Gier, Alex D. Hall, Forrest M. Hoffman, George C. Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris D. Jones, Stephen A. Klein, John P. Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald A. Meehl, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Robert Pincus, Alex C. Ruane, Joellen L. Russell, Benja
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/2, 2019, Page(s) 102-110, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Author(s): Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, Joanna House, Chris Huntingford, Timothy M. Lenton, Stephen Sitch, Eleanor Burke, Sarah E. Chadburn, William J. Collins, Edward Comyn-Platt, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan C. Doelman, Garry Hayman, Eddy Robertson, Detlef van Vuuren, Andy Wiltshire, Christopher P. Webber, Ana Bastos, Lena Boysen, Philippe Ciais, Narayanappa Devaraju, Atul K. Jain, Andreas Krau
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z

Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks

Author(s): Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Chris Huntingford, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor J. Burke, Anna B. Harper, William J. Collins, Christopher P. Webber, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, Nicola Gedney, Stephen Sitch
Published in: Nature Geoscience, Issue 11/8, 2018, Page(s) 568-573, ISSN 1752-0894
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity

Author(s): Lina M. Mercado, Belinda E. Medlyn, Chris Huntingford, Rebecca J. Oliver, Douglas B. Clark, Stephen Sitch, Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Jens Kattge, Anna B. Harper, Peter M. Cox
Published in: New Phytologist, Issue 218/4, 2018, Page(s) 1462-1477, ISSN 0028-646X
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/nph.15100

Global vegetation variability and its response to elevated CO₂, global warming, and climate variability – a study using the offline SSiB4/TRIFFID model and satellite data

Author(s): Ye Liu, Yongkang Xue, Glen MacDonald, Peter Cox, Zhengqiu Zhang
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 10/1, 2019, Page(s) 9-29, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-9-2019

Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target

Author(s): William J Collins, Christopher P Webber, Peter M Cox, Chris Huntingford, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Sarah E Chadburn, Edward Comyn-Platt, Anna B Harper, Garry Hayman, Tom Powell
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 13/5, 2018, Page(s) 054003, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab89c

Theoretical foundations of emergent constraints: relationships between climate sensitivity and global temperature variability in conceptual models

Author(s): Mark S Williamson, Peter M Cox, Femke J M M Nijsse
Published in: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, Issue 3/1, 2018, ISSN 2059-6987
Publisher: Oxford Academic
DOI: 10.1093/climsys/dzy006

Progressing emergent constraints on future climate change

Author(s): Alex Hall, Peter Cox, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Klein
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/4, 2019, Page(s) 269-278, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0436-6

Emergent Constraints on Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Author(s): Peter M. Cox
Published in: Current Climate Change Reports, Issue 5/4, 2019, Page(s) 275-281, ISSN 2198-6061
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s40641-019-00141-y

Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity

Author(s): Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Mark S. Williamson
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/8, 2019, Page(s) 598-601, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0527-4

Validation of demographic equilibrium theory against tree-size distributions and biomass density in Amazonia

Author(s): Jonathan R. Moore, Arthur P. K. Argles, Kai Zhu, Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 17/4, 2020, Page(s) 1013-1032, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: European Geosciences Union
DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-1013-2020

Stomatal optimization based on xylem hydraulics (SOX) improves land surface model simulation of vegetation responses to climate

Author(s): Cleiton B. Eller, Lucy Rowland, Maurizio Mencuccini, Teresa Rosas, Karina Williams, Anna Harper, Belinda E. Medlyn, Yael Wagner, Tamir Klein, Grazielle S. Teodoro, Rafael S. Oliveira, Ilaine S. Matos, Bruno H. P. Rosado, Kathrin Fuchs, Georg Wohlfahrt, Leonardo Montagnani, Patrick Meir, Stephen Sitch, Peter M. Cox
Published in: New Phytologist, Issue 226/6, 2020, Page(s) 1622-1637, ISSN 0028-646X
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/nph.16419

The impact of a simple representation of non-structural carbohydrates on the simulated response of tropical forests to drought

Author(s): Simon Jones, Lucy Rowland, Peter Cox, Deborah Hemming, Andy Wiltshire, Karina Williams, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Junjie Liu, Antonio C. L. da Costa, Patrick Meir, Maurizio Mencuccini, Anna B. Harper
Published in: Biogeosciences, Issue 17/13, 2020, Page(s) 3589-3612, ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher: EGU Publications
DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-3589-2020

Bioclimatic change as a function of global warming from CMIP6 climate projections

Author(s): Morgan Sparey; Peter Cox; Mark Williamson
Published in: Biogeosciences, 2023, ISSN 2767-3200
Publisher: EGU

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Author(s): Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 737-750, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-737-2020

JULES-CN: a coupled terrestrial carbon–nitrogen scheme (JULES vn5.1)

Author(s): A. Wiltshire; A. Wiltshire; Eleanor J. Burke; Sarah Chadburn; Chris D. Jones; Peter M. Cox; Taraka Davies-Barnard; Pierre Friedlingstein; Anna B. Harper; Spencer Liddicoat; Stephen Sitch; Sönke Zaehle
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 2161-2186 (2021), Issue 3, 2020, ISSN 1991-959X
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH

Book chapters (1)

Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author(s): Canadell, J.G., P.M.S. Monteiro, M.H. Costa, L. Cotrim da Cunha, P.M. Cox, A.V. Eliseev, S. Henson, M. Ishii, S. Jaccard, C. Koven, A. Lohila, P.K. Patra, S. Piao, J. Rogelj, S. Syampungani, S. Zaehle, K. Zickfeld
Published in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021, Page(s) 673-816
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/9781009157896.007