Periodic Reporting for period 4 - GRIEVANCE (Gauging the Risk of Incidents of Extremist Violence Against Non-Combatant Entities)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-07-01 al 2023-06-30
The GRIEVANCE project addresses the complex issues of violent extremism, radicalization, and terrorism, which threaten physical security, political stability, economic well-being, and social cohesion. The project examines the psychological, environmental, and social factors that drive individuals and groups toward extremist ideologies and violent actions, while identifying protective factors to prevent radicalization. Violent extremism stems from personal grievances, societal pressures, and structural inequalities, often amplified by online propaganda. These processes are hard to predict and counter, posing significant risks to individuals, communities, and nations.
GRIEVANCE explores why some individuals become radicalized and why they act on extremist ideologies. It focuses on key areas:
Psychological Vulnerabilities: How factors like trauma, mental health issues, or identity crises make individuals vulnerable to radical narratives.
Societal Factors: The role of perceived grievances, discrimination, and inequality foster resentment and alienation.
Technological Amplifiers: How igital platforms spread extremist ideologies
GRIEVANCE's objectives include:
Advancing Knowledge: Deepening our understanding of the factors leading to radicalization through interdisciplinary research in psychology, sociology, criminology, and political science.
Risk Assessment and Tools: Developing reliable tools to measure susceptibility to extremism and identify at-risk individuals or groups, such as scales for assessing exposure to extremism.
Policy and Practice: Translating research into actionable insights for policymakers, educators, law enforcement, and community leaders, to inform prevention and intervention programs.
Holistic Interventions: Exploring resilience-building and protective factors, such as social connections and community support, in preventing radicalization.
Technology and Extremism: Investigating the role of online platforms in spreading extremist content and finding ways to disrupt digital ecosystems.
The project has contributed extensively to understanding extremism, focusing on:
Radicalization pathways, including how individuals move from grievances to extremist ideologies and violent acts.
Cognitive and emotional factors, such as how psychological needs and emotions like anger and fear are exploited by extremist groups.
Cultural and contextual variations in radicalization processes.
GRIEVANCE's research has practical implications, including:
Improved Threat Detection: Tools to identify early signs of radicalization for proactive intervention.
Targeted Interventions: Programs designed to address the specific vulnerabilities of at-risk individuals or communities.
Policy Development: Guidance on creating policies that address underlying grievances and foster social inclusion.
In conclusion, the GRIEVANCE project provides crucial insights into the root causes of violent extremism and offers evidence-based solutions to mitigate its impact, fostering safer, more cohesive societies. Its findings bridge academic research with real-world applications, ensuring practical contributions to countering extremism globally.
GRIEVANCE explores why some individuals become radicalized and why they act on extremist ideologies. It focuses on key areas:
Psychological Vulnerabilities: How factors like trauma, mental health issues, or identity crises make individuals vulnerable to radical narratives.
Societal Factors: The role of perceived grievances, discrimination, and inequality foster resentment and alienation.
Technological Amplifiers: How igital platforms spread extremist ideologies
GRIEVANCE's objectives include:
Advancing Knowledge: Deepening our understanding of the factors leading to radicalization through interdisciplinary research in psychology, sociology, criminology, and political science.
Risk Assessment and Tools: Developing reliable tools to measure susceptibility to extremism and identify at-risk individuals or groups, such as scales for assessing exposure to extremism.
Policy and Practice: Translating research into actionable insights for policymakers, educators, law enforcement, and community leaders, to inform prevention and intervention programs.
Holistic Interventions: Exploring resilience-building and protective factors, such as social connections and community support, in preventing radicalization.
Technology and Extremism: Investigating the role of online platforms in spreading extremist content and finding ways to disrupt digital ecosystems.
The project has contributed extensively to understanding extremism, focusing on:
Radicalization pathways, including how individuals move from grievances to extremist ideologies and violent acts.
Cognitive and emotional factors, such as how psychological needs and emotions like anger and fear are exploited by extremist groups.
Cultural and contextual variations in radicalization processes.
GRIEVANCE's research has practical implications, including:
Improved Threat Detection: Tools to identify early signs of radicalization for proactive intervention.
Targeted Interventions: Programs designed to address the specific vulnerabilities of at-risk individuals or communities.
Policy Development: Guidance on creating policies that address underlying grievances and foster social inclusion.
In conclusion, the GRIEVANCE project provides crucial insights into the root causes of violent extremism and offers evidence-based solutions to mitigate its impact, fostering safer, more cohesive societies. Its findings bridge academic research with real-world applications, ensuring practical contributions to countering extremism globally.
The project produced 42 peer-reviewed scientific outputs, advancing understanding of violent extremism, radicalization, and threat assessment.
Radicalization Pathways and Psychological Factors:
Studies have distinguished between incidental exposure and active selection of radicalizing content, finding that active selection is linked to stronger support for extremist violence; explored misogyny as a psychological factor for male violence, including extremism, emphasizing the need for integrated interventions; examined risk and protective factors in radicalization, highlighting the importance of personalized assessments; used a psychometric network approach to analyze how cognitive, emotional, and social vulnerabilities contribute to extremism; compared lone-actor terrorists and mass murderers, offering insights for intervention; developed base rates for risk factors related to violent extremism, enhancing risk assessment tools and interventions; and classified behaviors of individuals posing risks to public figures, providing strategies for risk management and prevention.
Personality, Propaganda, and Extremist Behavior:
Studies have investigated how "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy) make individuals more susceptible to extremist propaganda; developed the EXPO-12, a reliable tool for assessing exposure to extremist content; found that individuals with higher certain personality traits are more likely to support extremism when they perceive group deprivation, suggesting that personality traits should be factored into interventions.
Online Abuse, Threat Assessment, and Risk Prediction:
Studies predicted profiles of individuals engaging in online abuse, identifying psychological traits linked to harmful behavior; improved procedures for assessing anonymous threats, emphasizing language and psychological indicators; developed the Grievance Dictionary to analyze extremist rhetoric, showing how linguistic grievances correlate with radicalization; tracked changes in discourse in a far-right forum to monitor online radicalization; and explored how responses to the “Unite the Right” rally correlate with offline violence, linking online hate speech with real-world violence.
Mental Health, Extremism, and Comprehensive Approaches:
Studies conducted a systematic review on mental health and violent extremism, concluding that mental health issues co-occur but are not primary causes of extremism; examine how individual and environmental factors contribute to violent extremist intentions, recommending interventions that address both personal grievances and societal contexts; and surveyed risk assessors on effective terrorism risk evaluation, emphasizing the importance of experience and judgment.
Target Selection and Spatial Dynamics:
Studies introduced the TRACK Framework for understanding terrorist target selection; assessed risk factors for dissident Republican violence in Belfast, identifying high-risk areas for targeted interventions.
This body of work provides crucial insights into the psychological, social, and contextual factors driving radicalization, offering evidence to inform strategies for preventing and countering violent extremism.
Radicalization Pathways and Psychological Factors:
Studies have distinguished between incidental exposure and active selection of radicalizing content, finding that active selection is linked to stronger support for extremist violence; explored misogyny as a psychological factor for male violence, including extremism, emphasizing the need for integrated interventions; examined risk and protective factors in radicalization, highlighting the importance of personalized assessments; used a psychometric network approach to analyze how cognitive, emotional, and social vulnerabilities contribute to extremism; compared lone-actor terrorists and mass murderers, offering insights for intervention; developed base rates for risk factors related to violent extremism, enhancing risk assessment tools and interventions; and classified behaviors of individuals posing risks to public figures, providing strategies for risk management and prevention.
Personality, Propaganda, and Extremist Behavior:
Studies have investigated how "dark" personality traits (narcissism, psychopathy) make individuals more susceptible to extremist propaganda; developed the EXPO-12, a reliable tool for assessing exposure to extremist content; found that individuals with higher certain personality traits are more likely to support extremism when they perceive group deprivation, suggesting that personality traits should be factored into interventions.
Online Abuse, Threat Assessment, and Risk Prediction:
Studies predicted profiles of individuals engaging in online abuse, identifying psychological traits linked to harmful behavior; improved procedures for assessing anonymous threats, emphasizing language and psychological indicators; developed the Grievance Dictionary to analyze extremist rhetoric, showing how linguistic grievances correlate with radicalization; tracked changes in discourse in a far-right forum to monitor online radicalization; and explored how responses to the “Unite the Right” rally correlate with offline violence, linking online hate speech with real-world violence.
Mental Health, Extremism, and Comprehensive Approaches:
Studies conducted a systematic review on mental health and violent extremism, concluding that mental health issues co-occur but are not primary causes of extremism; examine how individual and environmental factors contribute to violent extremist intentions, recommending interventions that address both personal grievances and societal contexts; and surveyed risk assessors on effective terrorism risk evaluation, emphasizing the importance of experience and judgment.
Target Selection and Spatial Dynamics:
Studies introduced the TRACK Framework for understanding terrorist target selection; assessed risk factors for dissident Republican violence in Belfast, identifying high-risk areas for targeted interventions.
This body of work provides crucial insights into the psychological, social, and contextual factors driving radicalization, offering evidence to inform strategies for preventing and countering violent extremism.
- the first empirical examination of left-wing extremism in the UK using unique police data
- the first applications of Risk Terrain Modelling and discrete choice modelling to extremist violence in a Western context
- the first use of closed source data on UK terrorists
- the first approximation of how often risk and protective factors for violent extremism occur within the general population
- the first nationally representative survey in the field of terrorism studies
- the first applications of Risk Terrain Modelling and discrete choice modelling to extremist violence in a Western context
- the first use of closed source data on UK terrorists
- the first approximation of how often risk and protective factors for violent extremism occur within the general population
- the first nationally representative survey in the field of terrorism studies