Deliverables Documents, reports (33) Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections Potential future case studies and events of interest This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation Outlook of future hazards Outlook of future hazards Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate) Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs Activities in research communities related to climate prediction Activities in research communities related to climate prediction Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final) Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report) Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years Policy briefings - ready for dissemination Policy briefings ready for dissemination Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card)) Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card Usability of EUCP service products for end users Usability of EUCP service products for end users End user requirements for the EUCP Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO) Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years) Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice Open Research Data Pilot (1) Data Management Plan Data Management Plan Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2) Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation Project website and internal collaboration platform Project website and internal collaboration platform available Other (2) Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website Publications Peer reviewed articles (162) Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios Author(s): Tramblay, Y., et al. Published in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 210, 2020, Page(s) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348 Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change Author(s): Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models Author(s): Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al Published in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055 An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles Author(s): Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020 Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps Author(s): Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C. Published in: WIREs Climate Change, Issue 12(6), 2021, Page(s) e731, ISSN 1757-7799 Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731 Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model Author(s): Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8 Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally Author(s): Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, Page(s) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898 The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation Author(s): Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378 Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Author(s): Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Issue 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1002/asl.922 How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature? Author(s): Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/2, 2021, Page(s) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1 Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans Author(s): Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy Published in: Ocean Science, Issue 18120792, 2021, Page(s) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Author(s): Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project Author(s): Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/1, 2021, Page(s) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1 Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation Author(s): Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875 Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R. Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106 Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections Author(s): Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y Published in: Nature Sustainability, Issue 1, 2018, Page(s) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629 Publisher: Springer Nature DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9 Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene Author(s): Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al Published in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286 The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections Author(s): J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 13, 2022, Page(s) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979 Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022 A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R. Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 8, 2021, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745 Publisher: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754 An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer Author(s): O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A. Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079 North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply Author(s): D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P Published in: Nature, Issue 583/7818, 2020, Page(s) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0 The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation Author(s): Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N. Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4 The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data Author(s): Christiansen, B. Published in: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Issue 28, 2021, Page(s) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021 Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth Author(s): Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 12, 2019, Page(s) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979 Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66 Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 Author(s): Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al Published in: Geoscience Model Development, Issue 14, 2021, Page(s) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03 Author(s): Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al Published in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Issue 8, 2019, Page(s) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025 Publisher: KeAi Elsevier DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03 Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions Author(s): Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr Published in: Frontiers in Climate, Issue 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553 Publisher: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634 Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling Author(s): Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries Published in: Weather and climate extremes, Issue 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823 Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia Author(s): Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A. Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1 Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion Author(s): Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10/3, 2020, Page(s) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0 Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 Author(s): Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307 Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V. Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR Author(s): Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al Published in: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340 HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales Author(s): Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/3, 2020, Page(s) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020 Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea Author(s): Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S. Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022 Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions Author(s): Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/10, 2020, Page(s) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings Author(s): Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D. Published in: Journal of Urban Climate, Issue 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159 Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Author(s): Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11, 2020, Page(s) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979 Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V. Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6 Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector Author(s): Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043 Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate Author(s): Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo Published in: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Issue 4, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7 A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping Author(s): Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9 Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions Author(s): Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900 Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model Author(s): Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE) Author(s): Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V. Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 53, 2019, Page(s) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia Author(s): Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/7-8, 2020, Page(s) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3 Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty Author(s): Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435 Publisher: Nature DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7 Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature Author(s): Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722 Publisher: Nature Research DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1 The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle Author(s): Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2 Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions Author(s): Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Gonzalez-Reviriego N. Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35, 2022, Page(s) 4363-4382, ISSN 0894-8755 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0811.1 Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes Author(s): Fulton DJ, Hegerl GC Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34, 2021, Page(s) 7645-7660, ISSN 0894-8755 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0871.1 Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain Author(s): Ozturk T, Matte D, Christensen JH Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0 How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts? Author(s): Stephan Hemri; Jonas Bhend; Mark A. Liniger; Rodrigo Manzanas; Stefan Siegert; David B. Stephenson; José M. Gutiérrez; Anca Brookshaw; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55, 2020, Page(s) 1141-1157, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2 European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Author(s): Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. 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Published in: Regional Environmental Change, Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 58, ISSN 1436-3798 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01920-4 Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves Author(s): Cowan T, Undorf S, Hegerl GC, et al Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10, 2020, Page(s) 505+, ISSN 1758-678X Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7 Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change Author(s): Hylke de Vries; Geert Lenderink; Karin van der Wiel; Erik van Meijgaard Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe Author(s): Fabian von Trentini; Emma Aalbers; Emma Aalbers; Erich M. 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Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Page(s) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8 Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution Author(s): Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G. Published in: Nature Communications, 10, Issue 5, 2019, Page(s) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000339757 A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions Author(s): Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124/6, 2019, Page(s) 2882-2896, ISSN 2169-897X Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029541 Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset Author(s): R. Manzanas, J. M. 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Doblas-Reyes Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 52/5-6, 2019, Page(s) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5 Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions Author(s): Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts Author(s): P. Spandre, H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George, S. Morin Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8 The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps Author(s): Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0190.1 Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting Author(s): Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO Author(s): Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, David W. 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Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24/3, 2020, Page(s) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938 Publisher: European Geophysical Union DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020 Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model Author(s): P. Greve, P. Burek, Y. Wada Published in: Water Resources Research, Issue 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026280 Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model Author(s): Steven C. Chan, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Ségolène Berthou, Giorgia Fosser, Elizabeth Lewis, Hayley J. Fowler Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations Author(s): Borchert, L.F., V. Koul, V., M.B. Menary, D.J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin and J. Mignot Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 16 (104017), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models Author(s): Thomassen ED, Kendon EJ, Sorup HJD, et al Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3029-3043, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05854-1 Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework Author(s): Lukas Brunner, Carol McSweeney, Andrew P. Ballinger, Daniel J. Befort, Marianna Benassi, Ben Booth, Erika Coppola, Hylke de Vries, Glen Harris, Gabriele C. 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Published in: Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, ISSN 1364-8152 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.002 Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe Author(s): Giovanni Sgubin; Didier Swingedouw; Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Thomas Noël; Harilaos Loukos; Juliette Mignot Published in: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03318273, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3245-3263, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0 Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data Author(s): O'Reilly, C.H., D.J. Befort, and A. 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Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 59, 2022, Page(s) 471-498, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06138-y The aridity index under global warming Author(s): Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M., Wada, Y. Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14(12), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046 Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2 Author(s): J. Oelsmann, L. Borchert, R. Hand, J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087259 Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Author(s): Daniel J. Befort; Kevin I. Hodges; Antje Weisheimer Published in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0041.1 Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes Author(s): Borchert, Leonard F.; Pohlmann, Holger; Baehr, Johanna; Neddermann, Nele‐Charlotte; Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura; Müller, Wolfgang A. Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, Page(s) 14042-14051, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085385 WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25 Author(s): Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Melissa Seabrook; Roberto Bilbao; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Etienne Tourigny; Vladimir Lapin; Viatcheslav V. Kharin; William J. Merryfield; Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso; Panos Athanasiadis; Dario Nicoli; Silvio Gualdi; Nick Dunstone; Rosie Eade; Adam Scaife; Mark Collier; Terence O’Kane; Vassili Kitsios; Paul Sandery; Klaus Pankatz; Barbara Früh; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang M Published in: American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1 Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence Author(s): Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, Reto Knutti Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/4, 2020, Page(s) 995-1012, ISSN 2190-4987 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020 The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions Author(s): Terrado, M., Lledó, L., Bojovic, D., St Clair, A. L., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Manzanas, R., San-Martín, D. & Christel, I. Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 100, 2019, Page(s) 1909-1921, ISSN 0003-0007 Publisher: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0214.1 Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions Author(s): Benestad, R., Caron, L.-P., Parding, K., Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez Llorente, J. M., Mezghani, A. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. Published in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology & Oceanography, Issue 02806495, 2019, ISSN 0280-6495 Publisher: Swedish Geophysical Society: Munksgaard DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions Author(s): Meehl GA, Teng H, Smith D, et al Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06272-7 Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe Author(s): Manning C, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, et al Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 2387-2404, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4 The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble Author(s): Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Christiansen, Bo; Yang, Shuting Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, Page(s) 2561–2575, ISSN 0930-7575 Publisher: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05131-7 Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0 Author(s): Simon Michel; Didier Swingedouw; Marie Chavent; Pablo Ortega; Juliette Mignot; Myriam Khodri Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13, 2020, Page(s) 841-858, ISSN 1991-9603 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020 Extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate over Europe Author(s): Vergara-Temprado, J., N. Ban and C. Schär Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Publisher: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089506 Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic Author(s): Carvalho-Oliveira J, Borchert LF, Duchez A, et al Published in: Climate & Weather Dynamics, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 739-757, ISSN 2698-4016 Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021 Non-peer reviewed articles (3) Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach Author(s): Doury A., Somot S., Gadat S., Ribes A., Corre L. Published in: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015 Publisher: Research Square LLC DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-725819/v1 Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 11/4, 2019, Page(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516 Publisher: not applicable DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019 Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble Author(s): Belušić Vozila, A., Danijel Belušić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak et al Published in: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015 Publisher: Research Square Company DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1622667/v1 Conference proceedings (3) Long range predictability of the length of day and extratropical surface climate Author(s): Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., van Niekerk, A., Andrews, M., Baldwin, M. P., Belcher S., Bett, P., Comer, R. E., Dunstone N. J., Geen R., Hardiman S. C., Ineson S., Knight J., Nie Y., Ren H.-L., and Smith D. Published in: EGU General Assembly 2021, 2021 Publisher: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-191 Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall Author(s): Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Issue Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019 Publisher: European Geophysical Union Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Issue Vol. 21, 2019 Publisher: European Geophysical Union Other (2) Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note Author(s): Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Doblas Reyes, Francisco Published in: Universitat Politècnica Commons. Global access to UPC knowledge, 2018 Publisher: Universitat Politècnica How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns Author(s): Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R. Published in: 2020 Publisher: EU Searching for OpenAIRE data... There was an error trying to search data from OpenAIRE No results available