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European Climate Prediction system

Deliverables

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections

Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions

Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO)

Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists

Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use

Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website

Searching for OpenAIRE data...

Publications

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Author(s): Tramblay, Y., et al.
Published in: Earth Science Reviews, 210, 2020, Page(s) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Author(s): Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten
Published in: Nature Communications, 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Author(s): Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al
Published in: Global and Planetary Change, 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Author(s): Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Author(s): Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C.
Published in: WIREs Climate Change, 12(6), 2021, Page(s) e731, ISSN 1757-7799
Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731

Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Author(s): Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 55/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Author(s): Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 2019, Page(s) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Author(s): Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 57, 2021, Page(s) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

Author(s): Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922
Published in: Atmospheric Science Letters, 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.922

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

Author(s): Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild
Published in: Journal of Climate, 34/2, 2021, Page(s) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans

Author(s): Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy
Published in: Ocean Science, 18120792, 2021, Page(s) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Author(s): Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project

Author(s): Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri
Published in: Journal of Climate, 34/1, 2021, Page(s) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Author(s): Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875

Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks

Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R.
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106

Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Author(s): Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y
Published in: Nature Sustainability, 1, 2018, Page(s) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9

Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Author(s): Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al
Published in: Earth Science Reviews, 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Author(s): J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 13, 2022, Page(s) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022

A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Author(s): Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R.
Published in: Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 2021, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754

An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer

Author(s): O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A.
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Author(s): D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P
Published in: Nature, 583/7818, 2020, Page(s) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Author(s): Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 56, 2021, Page(s) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data

Author(s): Christiansen, B.
Published in: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, 28, 2021, Page(s) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021

Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth

Author(s): Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 12, 2019, Page(s) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Author(s): Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al
Published in: Geoscience Model Development, 14, 2021, Page(s) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

Author(s): Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al
Published in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 2019, Page(s) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025
Publisher: KeAi Elsevier
DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

Author(s): Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr
Published in: Frontiers in Climate, 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634

Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling

Author(s): Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries
Published in: Weather and climate extremes, 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823

Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia

Author(s): Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Author(s): Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 10/3, 2020, Page(s) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

Author(s): Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 56, 2021, Page(s) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y

The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR

Author(s): Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al
Published in: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340

HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Author(s): Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 13/3, 2020, Page(s) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Author(s): Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S.
Published in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 22, 2022, Page(s) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Author(s): Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 15/10, 2020, Page(s) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings

Author(s): Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D.
Published in: Journal of Urban Climate, 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Author(s): Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, 11, 2020, Page(s) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979
Publisher: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Author(s): Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 58, 2022, Page(s) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Author(s): Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Author(s): Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo
Published in: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., 4, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Author(s): Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al
Published in: Nature Communications, 12, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

Author(s): Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900

Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

Author(s): Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 58, 2022, Page(s) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y

Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE)

Author(s): Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 53, 2019, Page(s) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z

Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia

Author(s): Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 55/7-8, 2020, Page(s) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Author(s): Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Author(s): Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Author(s): Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi
Published in: Scientific Reports, 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2

Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions

Author(s): Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Gonzalez-Reviriego N.
Published in: Journal of Climate, 35, 2022, Page(s) 4363-4382, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0811.1

Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes

Author(s): Fulton DJ, Hegerl GC
Published in: Journal of Climate, 34, 2021, Page(s) 7645-7660, ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0871.1

Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain

Author(s): Ozturk T, Matte D, Christensen JH
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0

How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

Author(s): Stephan Hemri; Jonas Bhend; Mark A. Liniger; Rodrigo Manzanas; Stefan Siegert; David B. Stephenson; José M. Gutiérrez; Anca Brookshaw; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 55, 2020, Page(s) 1141-1157, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2

European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Author(s): Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard
Published in: Geoscientific Model Development, 13/11, 2020, Page(s) 5485-5506, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020

Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

Author(s): Haibo Du; Markus G. Donat; Shengwei Zong; Lisa V. Alexander; Rodrigo Manzanas; Andries Kruger; Gwangyong Choi; Jim Salinger; Hong S. He; Mai-He Li; Fumiaki Fujibe; Banzragch Nandintsetseg; Shafiqur Rehman; Farhat Abbas; Matilde Rusticucci; Arvind Srivastava; Panmao Zhai; Tanya Lippmann; Ibouraïma Yabi; Michael C. Stambaugh; Shengzhong Wang; Altangerel Batbold; Priscilla Teles de Oliveira; Muhamma
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Page(s) 1130-1145, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1

Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

Author(s): Bonnet R, Swingedouw D, Gastineau G, et al
Published in: Nature Communications, 20411723, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0

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Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting

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Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index

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Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems

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Toward a European Climate Prediction System

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Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

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Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

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A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

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Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

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A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

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Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

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Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

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Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

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Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

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Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

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Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

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Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts

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Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
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The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

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Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

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Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

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Publisher: Springer Nature
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Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

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"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

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Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

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Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

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Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations

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Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models

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Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

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Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

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Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences

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Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill

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Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles

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How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?

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Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

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Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains

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Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

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Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation.

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Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures

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