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European Climate Prediction system

Livrables

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Publications

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Auteurs: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X.
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/21, 2018, Page(s) 11,895-11,903, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079362

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Auteurs: Yochanan Kushnir, Adam A. Scaife, Raymond Arritt, Gianpaolo Balsamo, George Boer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Masahide Kimoto, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Katja Matthes, Wolfgang A. Müller, Terence O’Kane, Judith Perlwitz, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Akihiko Shimpo, Doug Smith, Matthias Tuma, Bo Wu
Publié dans: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/2, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-678X
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

Auteurs: D. M. Smith, R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, X. Yang
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 2/1, 2019, Page(s) 1-10, ISSN 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Auteurs: Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O’Reilly, T.N. Stockdale, S. Johnson, T.N. Palmer
Publié dans: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 0035-9009
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3446

Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean

Auteurs: Yves Tramblay, Samuel Somot
Publié dans: Climatic Change, Issue 151/2, 2018, Page(s) 289-302, ISSN 0165-0009
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5

Toward a European Climate Prediction System

Auteurs: Chris D. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 99/10, 2018, Page(s) 1997-2001, ISSN 0003-0007
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0022.1

Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

Auteurs: Dominic Matte, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Publié dans: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Issue 6, 2019, ISSN 2296-665X
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2018.00163

Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

Auteurs: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Morten A. D. Larsen, Ole B. Christensen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2019, Page(s) 1-13, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z

Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

Auteurs: Bo Christiansen
Publié dans: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 147/5, 2019, Page(s) 1699-1712, ISSN 0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0211.1

A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

Auteurs: Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele, B. Ahrens, I. Anders, N. Ban, S. Bastin, M. Belda, D. Belusic, A. Caldas-Alvarez, R. M. Cardoso, S. Davolio, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, L. Fita, Q. Fumiere, F. Giorgi, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, D. Heinzeller, Ø. Hodnebrog, D. Jacob, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, E. Kendon, S. Khodayar, H. Kunstmann, S. Knist, A. Lavín-Gullón, P.
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Page(s) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Auteurs: Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G.
Publié dans: Nature Communications, 10, Issue 5, 2019, Page(s) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000339757

A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

Auteurs: Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124/6, 2019, Page(s) 2882-2896, ISSN 2169-897X
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029541

Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

Auteurs: R. Manzanas, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. Bhend, S. Hemri, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Torralba, E. Penabad, A. Brookshaw
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04640-4

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

Auteurs: Luis R. L. Rodrigues, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Caio A. S. Coelho
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4

Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Auteurs: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin
Publié dans: The Cryosphere, Issue 13/4, 2019, Page(s) 1325-1347, ISSN 1994-0424
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Auteurs: Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Soret, Albert
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Issue 6, 2018, Page(s) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Auteurs: Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Issue 52/5-6, 2019, Page(s) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5

Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Auteurs: Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale
Publié dans: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0

Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts

Auteurs: P. Spandre, H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George, S. Morin
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8

The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

Auteurs: Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Publié dans: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0190.1

Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Auteurs: Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Auteurs: Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, David W. Smith, Stefano Tibaldi
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6

Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

Auteurs: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, Page(s) 11895, ISSN 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0

"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

Auteurs: Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada
Publié dans: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24/3, 2020, Page(s) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020

Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

Auteurs: P. Greve, P. Burek, Y. Wada
Publié dans: Water Resources Research, Issue 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026280

Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

Auteurs: Steven C. Chan, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Ségolène Berthou, Giorgia Fosser, Elizabeth Lewis, Hayley J. Fowler
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8

Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Auteurs: Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Issue Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019

Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Auteurs: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Issue Vol. 21, 2019

Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

Auteurs: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Publié dans: Earth System Science Data, Issue 11/4, 2019, Page(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516
DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019

How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Auteurs: Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
Publié dans: 2020

Ensemble de données