European Climate Prediction system

Rezultaty

Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future

Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future

Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses
Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities
Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations

Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations

Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Potential future case studies and events of interest

This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Outlook of future hazards
Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components

Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty

Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems
Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections
Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions

Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events

Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate)

Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions

Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final)

Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report)

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets

Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use

Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period

Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years

Policy briefings - ready for dissemination

Policy briefings ready for dissemination

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card))

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card

Usability of EUCP service products for end users
End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications

Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Data Management Plan

Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation

Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation

Project website and internal collaboration platform

Project website and internal collaboration platform available

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists
Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance

Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance (meta-data and consistency of EUCP data itself)

Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use

Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers. Training documents, recordings and minutes of the training produced and made publicly available on website

Publikacje

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Autorzy: Tramblay, Y., et al.
Opublikowane w: Earth Science Reviews, Numer 210, 2020, Strona(/y) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Autorzy: Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Autorzy: Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al
Opublikowane w: Global and Planetary Change, Numer 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Autorzy: Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 11/3, 2020, Strona(/y) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Autorzy: Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C.
Opublikowane w: WIREs Climate Change, Numer 12(6), 2021, Strona(/y) e731, ISSN 1757-7799
Wydawca: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731

Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Autorzy: Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 55/1-2, 2020, Strona(/y) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Autorzy: Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 46, 2019, Strona(/y) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Autorzy: Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 57, 2021, Strona(/y) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

Autorzy: Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922
Opublikowane w: Atmospheric Science Letters, Numer 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.922

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

Autorzy: Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 34/2, 2021, Strona(/y) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans

Autorzy: Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy
Opublikowane w: Ocean Science, Numer 18120792, 2021, Strona(/y) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Autorzy: Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project

Autorzy: Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 34/1, 2021, Strona(/y) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Autorzy: Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875

Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks

Autorzy: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R.
Opublikowane w: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106

Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Autorzy: Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y
Opublikowane w: Nature Sustainability, Numer 1, 2018, Strona(/y) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9

Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Autorzy: Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al
Opublikowane w: Earth Science Reviews, Numer 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Autorzy: J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 13, 2022, Strona(/y) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022

A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Autorzy: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R.
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Marine Science, Numer 8, 2021, Strona(/y) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754

An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer

Autorzy: O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Autorzy: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P
Opublikowane w: Nature, Numer 583/7818, 2020, Strona(/y) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Autorzy: Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 56, 2021, Strona(/y) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data

Autorzy: Christiansen, B.
Opublikowane w: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Numer 28, 2021, Strona(/y) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021

Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth

Autorzy: Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 12, 2019, Strona(/y) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Autorzy: Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al
Opublikowane w: Geoscience Model Development, Numer 14, 2021, Strona(/y) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

Autorzy: Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al
Opublikowane w: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Numer 8, 2019, Strona(/y) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025
Wydawca: KeAi Elsevier
DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

Autorzy: Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Climate, Numer 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634

Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling

Autorzy: Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries
Opublikowane w: Weather and climate extremes, Numer 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823

Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia

Autorzy: Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Autorzy: Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 10/3, 2020, Strona(/y) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

Autorzy: Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autorzy: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 56, 2021, Strona(/y) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y

The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR

Autorzy: Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340

HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Autorzy: Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 13/3, 2020, Strona(/y) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Autorzy: Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S.
Opublikowane w: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Numer 22, 2022, Strona(/y) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Autorzy: Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 15/10, 2020, Strona(/y) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings

Autorzy: Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Urban Climate, Numer 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Autorzy: Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 11, 2020, Strona(/y) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autorzy: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 58, 2022, Strona(/y) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Autorzy: Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 14/12, 2019, Strona(/y) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Autorzy: Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Numer 4, 2019, Strona(/y) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Autorzy: Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 12, 2021, Strona(/y) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

Autorzy: Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900

Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

Autorzy: Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 58, 2022, Strona(/y) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y

Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE)

Autorzy: Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 53, 2019, Strona(/y) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z

Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia

Autorzy: Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 55/7-8, 2020, Strona(/y) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Autorzy: Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl
Opublikowane w: Communications Earth & Environment, Numer 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Wydawca: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Autorzy: Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Autorzy: Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Numer 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2

Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions

Autorzy: Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Gonzalez-Reviriego N.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 35, 2022, Strona(/y) 4363-4382, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0811.1

Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes

Autorzy: Fulton DJ, Hegerl GC
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 34, 2021, Strona(/y) 7645-7660, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0871.1

Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain

Autorzy: Ozturk T, Matte D, Christensen JH
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0

How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts?

Autorzy: Stephan Hemri; Jonas Bhend; Mark A. Liniger; Rodrigo Manzanas; Stefan Siegert; David B. Stephenson; José M. Gutiérrez; Anca Brookshaw; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 55, 2020, Strona(/y) 1141-1157, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2

European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Autorzy: Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 13/11, 2020, Strona(/y) 5485-5506, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020

Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

Autorzy: Haibo Du; Markus G. Donat; Shengwei Zong; Lisa V. Alexander; Rodrigo Manzanas; Andries Kruger; Gwangyong Choi; Jim Salinger; Hong S. He; Mai-He Li; Fumiaki Fujibe; Banzragch Nandintsetseg; Shafiqur Rehman; Farhat Abbas; Matilde Rusticucci; Arvind Srivastava; Panmao Zhai; Tanya Lippmann; Ibouraïma Yabi; Michael C. Stambaugh; Shengzhong Wang; Altangerel Batbold; Priscilla Teles de Oliveira; Muhamma
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Strona(/y) 1130-1145, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1

Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

Autorzy: Bonnet R, Swingedouw D, Gastineau G, et al
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 20411723, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0

Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions

Autorzy: Befort D.J., Brunner L, Borchert LF, et al
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 00948276, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098568

Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations

Autorzy: Bonnet R, Boucher O, Deshayes J, et al
Opublikowane w: Journal of Advanced Model Earth System (JAMES), Numer 13, 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002565

How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector

Autorzy: Solaraju-Murali, B., D. Bojovic, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, A. Nicodemou, M. Terrado, L.-P. Caron and F.J. Doblas-Reyes
Opublikowane w: Climate Services, Numer 27, 2022, Strona(/y) 100303, ISSN 2405-8807
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100303

AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting?

Autorzy: Swingedouw D, Houssais M-N, Herbaut C, Blaizot A-C, Devilliers M and Deshayes J
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Climate, Numer 4, 2022, Strona(/y) 838310, ISSN 2624-9553
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.838310

Spatial extent of precipitation events: when big is getting bigger

Autorzy: Matte D, Christensen JH, Ozturk T
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 58, 2022, Strona(/y) 1861-1875, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05998-0

On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models.

Autorzy: Didier Swingedouw; Adrien Bily; Claire Esquerdo; Leonard Borchert; Giovanni Sgubin; Juliette Mignot; Matthew Menary
Opublikowane w: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Numer 1504, 2021, Strona(/y) 187-201, ISSN 0077-8923
Wydawca: New York Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14659

Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps

Autorzy: Monteiro D, Caillaud C, Samacoïts R, et al
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Climatology, 2022, Strona(/y) 1-24, ISSN 0899-8418
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7637

The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden–set in a historical context

Autorzy: Wilcke, R. A., Kjellström, E., Lin, C., Matei, D., & Moberg, A.
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 11 (4), 2020, Strona(/y) 1-22, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020

Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model

Autorzy: Brisson E, Blahak U, Lucas-Picher P, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 57, 2021, Strona(/y) 2037-2051, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05791-z

Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study

Autorzy: Ruprich-Robert Y, Moreno-Chamarro E, Levine X, et al
Opublikowane w: npj Climate & Atmpspheric Science, Numer 4, 2021, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: MDPI
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5

Constraining decadal variability yields skillful projections of near-term climate change

Autorzy: Mahmood, R., M.G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and Y. Ruprich-Robert
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2021gl094915

Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Autorzy: Gerald A. Meehl; Jadwiga H. Richter; Haiyan Teng; Antonietta Capotondi; Antonietta Capotondi; Kim M. Cobb; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Markus G. Donat; Matthew H. England; John C. Fyfe; Weiqing Han; Hye-Mi Kim; Ben P. Kirtman; Yochanan Kushnir; Nicole S. Lovenduski; Nicole S. Lovenduski; Michael E. Mann; William J. Merryfield; Veronica Nieves; Kathy Pegion; Nan Rosenbloom
Opublikowane w: Nature reviews earth and environment, Numer 2, 2021, Strona(/y) 340-357, ISSN 2662-138X
Wydawca: Springer Nature Limited
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x

An Analysis of (Sub-)Hourly Rainfall in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations Over Southern Sweden From a User’s Perspective

Autorzy: Jonas Olsson; Yiheng Du; Dong An; Cintia Bertacchi Uvo; Johanna Sörensen; Erika Toivonen; Danijel Belušić; Andreas Dobler
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Earth Science, Numer 9, 2021, ISSN 2296-6463
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.681312

Future continental summer warming constrained by the present-day seasonal cycle of surface hydrology

Autorzy: F. M. Selten, R. Bintanja, R. Vautard, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Numer 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61721-9

Déclin des deux plus grands glaciers des Alpes françaises au cours du 21ème siècle: Argentière et Mer de Glace

Autorzy: Vincent, C., Peyaud, V., Laarman, O., Six, D., Gilbert, A., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Berthier, E., Morin, S., Verfaillie, D., Rabatel, A., Jourdain, B. & Bolibar, J.
Opublikowane w: La Météorologie, Numer 106, 2019, Strona(/y) 49-58, ISSN 2107-0830
Wydawca: unknown
DOI: 10.4267/2042/70369

Leach NJ, Weisheimer A, Allen MR, Palmer T (2021) Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 118:. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2112087118

Autorzy: Leach NJ, Weisheimer A, Allen MR, Palmer T
Opublikowane w: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, Numer 118, 2021, ISSN 1091-6490
Wydawca: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112087118

Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

Autorzy: Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Peter Greve; Berny Bisselink; Lukas Brunner; Albrecht H. Weerts; Albrecht H. Weerts
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Water, Numer 3, 2021, ISSN 2624-9375
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2021.713537

Climate change impacts on future driving and walking conditions in Finland, Norway and Sweden

Autorzy: Freistetter, NC., Médus, E., Hippi, M., Kangas, M., Dobler, A., Belušić, D., Käyhkö, J. & Partanen, A.-I.
Opublikowane w: Regional Environmental Change, Numer 22, 2022, Strona(/y) 58, ISSN 1436-3798
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01920-4

Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

Autorzy: Cowan T, Undorf S, Hegerl GC, et al
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 10, 2020, Strona(/y) 505+, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7

Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change

Autorzy: Hylke de Vries; Geert Lenderink; Karin van der Wiel; Erik van Meijgaard
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2022, Strona(/y) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z

Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

Autorzy: Fabian von Trentini; Emma Aalbers; Emma Aalbers; Erich M. Fischer; Ralf Ludwig
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 1013-1031 (2020), Numer 11, 2020, Strona(/y) 1013-1031, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000453629

The forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation: non-stationary and fragile skills

Autorzy: Christiansen, B., Shuting Yang, and Dominic Matte
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0807.1

Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting

Autorzy: Torben Schmith; Peter Thejll; Peter Berg; Fredrik Boberg; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Bo Christiansen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Marianne Sloth Madsen; Christian Steger
Opublikowane w: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Numer 25, 2021, Strona(/y) 273-290, ISSN 1607-7938
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-273-2021

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming

Autorzy: Brady Ferster; Alexey V. Fedorov; Alexey V. Fedorov; Juliette Mignot; Eric Guilyardi; Eric Guilyardi
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 57, 2021, Strona(/y) 2433-2451, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05813-w

Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index

Autorzy: Koul, Vimal; Tesdal, Jan-Erik; Bersch, Manfred; Hátún, Hjálmar; Brune, Sebastian; Borchert, Leonard; Haak, Helmuth; Schrum, Corinna; Baehr, Johanna
Opublikowane w: Scientific reports, Numer 10, 2020, Strona(/y) 1005, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-57790-5

Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems

Autorzy: Swingedouw D, Speranza CI, Bartsch A, et al
Opublikowane w: Survey in Geophysics, Numer 41, 2020, Strona(/y) 1237-1284, ISSN 1573-0956
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6

Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Autorzy: D J Befort, T Kruschke, G C Leckebusch
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Communications, Numer 2/3, 2020, Strona(/y) 031005, ISSN 2515-7620
Wydawca: IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab7b35

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Autorzy: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 45/21, 2018, Strona(/y) 11,895-11,903, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079362

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Autorzy: Yochanan Kushnir, Adam A. Scaife, Raymond Arritt, Gianpaolo Balsamo, George Boer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Masahide Kimoto, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Katja Matthes, Wolfgang A. Müller, Terence O’Kane, Judith Perlwitz, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Akihiko Shimpo, Doug Smith, Matthias Tuma, Bo Wu
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 9/2, 2019, Strona(/y) 94-101, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

Autorzy: D. M. Smith, R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, X. Yang
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 2/1, 2019, Strona(/y) 1-10, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Autorzy: Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O’Reilly, T.N. Stockdale, S. Johnson, T.N. Palmer
Opublikowane w: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Strona(/y) 1-20, ISSN 0035-9009
Wydawca: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3446

Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean

Autorzy: Yves Tramblay, Samuel Somot
Opublikowane w: Climatic Change, Numer 151/2, 2018, Strona(/y) 289-302, ISSN 0165-0009
Wydawca: Reidel Pub. Co.
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5

Toward a European Climate Prediction System

Autorzy: Chris D. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numer 99/10, 2018, Strona(/y) 1997-2001, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0022.1

Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

Autorzy: Dominic Matte, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Numer 6, 2019, ISSN 2296-665X
Wydawca: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2018.00163

Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

Autorzy: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Morten A. D. Larsen, Ole B. Christensen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2019, Strona(/y) 1-13, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z

Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

Autorzy: Bo Christiansen
Opublikowane w: Monthly Weather Review, Numer 147/5, 2019, Strona(/y) 1699-1712, ISSN 0027-0644
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0211.1

A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

Autorzy: Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele, B. Ahrens, I. Anders, N. Ban, S. Bastin, M. Belda, D. Belusic, A. Caldas-Alvarez, R. M. Cardoso, S. Davolio, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, L. Fita, Q. Fumiere, F. Giorgi, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, D. Heinzeller, Ø. Hodnebrog, D. Jacob, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, E. Kendon, S. Khodayar, H. Kunstmann, S. Knist, A. Lavín-Gullón, P.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Strona(/y) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Autorzy: Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G.
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, 10, Numer 5, 2019, Strona(/y) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000339757

A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

Autorzy: Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England
Opublikowane w: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Numer 124/6, 2019, Strona(/y) 2882-2896, ISSN 2169-897X
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029541

Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

Autorzy: R. Manzanas, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. Bhend, S. Hemri, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Torralba, E. Penabad, A. Brookshaw
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 02-2019, 2019, Strona(/y) 1-19, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04640-4

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

Autorzy: Luis R. L. Rodrigues, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Caio A. S. Coelho
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 02-2019, 2019, Strona(/y) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4

Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Autorzy: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin
Opublikowane w: The Cryosphere, Numer 13/4, 2019, Strona(/y) 1325-1347, ISSN 1994-0424
Wydawca: European Geoscience Union
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Autorzy: Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Soret, Albert
Opublikowane w: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Numer 6, 2018, Strona(/y) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Autorzy: Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 52/5-6, 2019, Strona(/y) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5

Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Autorzy: Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 9/1, 2018, Strona(/y) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0

Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts

Autorzy: P. Spandre, H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George, S. Morin
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Numer 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8

The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

Autorzy: Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0190.1

Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Autorzy: Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 14/12, 2019, Strona(/y) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Autorzy: Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, David W. Smith, Stefano Tibaldi
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6

Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

Autorzy: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Numer 10/1, 2020, Strona(/y) 11895, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0

"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

Autorzy: Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada
Opublikowane w: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Numer 24/3, 2020, Strona(/y) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938
Wydawca: European Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020

Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

Autorzy: P. Greve, P. Burek, Y. Wada
Opublikowane w: Water Resources Research, Numer 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026280

Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

Autorzy: Steven C. Chan, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Ségolène Berthou, Giorgia Fosser, Elizabeth Lewis, Hayley J. Fowler
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 55/3-4, 2020, Strona(/y) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8

Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations

Autorzy: Borchert, L.F., V. Koul, V., M.B. Menary, D.J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin and J. Mignot
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 16 (104017), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5

Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models

Autorzy: Thomassen ED, Kendon EJ, Sorup HJD, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 57, 2021, Strona(/y) 3029-3043, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05854-1

Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

Autorzy: Lukas Brunner, Carol McSweeney, Andrew P. Ballinger, Daniel J. Befort, Marianna Benassi, Ben Booth, Erika Coppola, Hylke de Vries, Glen Harris, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Geert Lenderink, Jason Lowe, Rita Nogherotto, Chris O’Reilly, Saïd Qasmi, Aurélien Ribes, Paolo Stocchi, Sabine Undorf
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 33/20, 2020, Strona(/y) 8671-8692, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0953.1

Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

Autorzy: Solaraju-Murali, B., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Caron, L.P., Ceglar, A., Toreti, A., Zampieri, M., Bretonnière, P.A., Samsó Cabré, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J.
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 4(1), 2021, Strona(/y) 1-9, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: MDPI
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00189-4

Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences

Autorzy: Julien Boé; Samuel Somot; Lola Corre; Pierre Nabat
Opublikowane w: "Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2020, 54 (5-6), pp.2981-3002. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1⟩", Numer 1, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1

Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill

Autorzy: Christopher H. O'Reilly; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; David MacLeod; Daniel J. Befort; Tim Palmer
Opublikowane w: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020, ISSN 1477-870X
Wydawca: RMS
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3890

Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles

Autorzy: Bo Christiansen
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 33/21, 2020, Strona(/y) 9447-9465, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0186.1

How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?

Autorzy: Jain S, Scaife AA
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 17, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4655

Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Autorzy: Gillett NP, Kirchmeier-Young M, Ribes A, et al
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 11, 2021, Strona(/y) 207-212, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9

Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains

Autorzy: Stocchi, Paolo; Pichelli, Emanuela; Torres Alavez, Jose Abraham; Coppola, Erika; Giuliani, Graziano; Giorgi, Filippo
Opublikowane w: Atmosphere, 13 (6), Numer 1, 2022, ISSN 2073-4433
Wydawca: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos13060861

Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

Autorzy: Kahraman, A., Kendon, E., Chan, S., & Fowler, H.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 48 (13), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092361

Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation.

Autorzy: Evin G, Hingray B, Blanchet J, et al
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 32, 2019, Strona(/y) 2423-2440, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0606.1

Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures

Autorzy: Müller, W. A., Borchert, L. & Ghosh, R.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086043

Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022

Autorzy: Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022
Opublikowane w: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numer 22, 2022, Strona(/y) 693-711, ISSN 1684-9981
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022

Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

Autorzy: Weisheimer A, Befort DJ, MacLeod D, et al
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numer 101, 2020, Strona(/y) e1413-e1426, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0019.1

Climate models permit convection at much coarser resolutions than previously considered.

Autorzy: Jesus Vergara-Temprado; Nikolina Ban; Davide Panosetti; Linda Schlemmer; Christoph Schär
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 33, 2020, Strona(/y) 1915-1933, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0286.1

Towards an objective assessment of climate multi-model ensembles - a case study: the Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling region

Autorzy: Mignot J, Mejia C, Sorror C, et al
Opublikowane w: Geoscience Model Development, Numer 13, 2020, Strona(/y) 2723-2742, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-2723-2020

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

Autorzy: Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F. and Knutti, R.
Opublikowane w: Science Advances, Numer 6(12), 2020, ISSN 2375-2548
Wydawca: AAAS (American Association for the Advances of Science)
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549

Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

Autorzy: Peter Burek, Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Ting Tang, Peter Greve, Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Fang Zhao, Yoshihide Wada
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 13/7, 2020, Strona(/y) 3267-3298, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020

Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective

Autorzy: Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. & Shaffrey, L.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084402

Projections and uncertainties of sandy beach loss due to sea level rise at the European scale

Autorzy: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.
Opublikowane w: EGU General Assembly 2020, Numer EGU2020-10149, 2020, ISSN 1866-3508
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10149

Users cognitive load: A key aspect to successfully communicate visual climate information

Autorzy: Luz Calvo; Isadora Christel; Marta Terrado; Fernando M. Cucchietti; Mario Pérez-Montoro
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Strona(/y) 1-16, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0166.1

Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space

Autorzy: Marianna Adinolfi, Mario Raffa, Alfredo Reder, Paola Mercogliano
Opublikowane w: Atmosphere, Numer 12/1, 2021, Strona(/y) 54, ISSN 2073-4433
Wydawca: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12010054

Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions

Autorzy: Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H., & Weisheimer, A.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090059

How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections

Autorzy: Tamzin Palmer; Ben B. B. Booth; Carol McSweeney
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 16, 2021, Strona(/y) 1-15, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504579.1

Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model

Autorzy: Lenderink G, De Vries H, Fowler HJ, et al
Opublikowane w: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Numer 379, 2021, ISSN 0080-4614
Wydawca: The Royal Society Publishing
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0544

Making climate projections conditional on historical observations

Autorzy: Aurélien Ribes, Saïd Qasmi, Nathan P. Gillett
Opublikowane w: Science Advances, Numer 7/4, 2021, Strona(/y) eabc0671, ISSN 2375-2548
Wydawca: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0671

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Autorzy: Yadu Pokhrel; Farshid Felfelani; Yusuke Satoh; Yusuke Satoh; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Anne Gädeke; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Hyungjun Kim; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Junguo Liu; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Jacob Schewe; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tobias Stacke; Camelia Eliza Telteu; Wim Thiery; Wim Thiery; Ted Veldkamp; Ted Vel
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 11, 2021, Strona(/y) 226-333, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Towards useful decadal climate services

Autorzy: Dunstone, N., Lockwood, J., Solaraju-Murali, B., Reinhardt, K., Tsartsali, E. E., Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Brookshaw, A., Caron, L., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Früh, B., González-Reviriego, N., Gualdi, S., Hermanson, L., Materia, S., Nicodemou, A., Nicolì, D., Pankatz, K., Paxian, A., Scaife, A., Smith, D., & Thornton, H. E.
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0190.1

Selecting regional climate scenarios for impact modelling studies

Autorzy: Wilcke, R. A. I., Bärring, L.
Opublikowane w: Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, ISSN 1364-8152
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.002

Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe

Autorzy: Giovanni Sgubin; Didier Swingedouw; Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Thomas Noël; Harilaos Loukos; Juliette Mignot
Opublikowane w: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03318273, Numer 57, 2021, Strona(/y) 3245-3263, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Autorzy: O'Reilly, C.H., D.J. Befort, and A. Weisheimer
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes

Autorzy: Felicitas Hansen; Danijel Belušić
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Climatology, Numer 1, 2021, ISSN 0899-8418
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7171

The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

Autorzy: Grinsted A, Christensen JH
Opublikowane w: Ocean Science, Numer 17, 2021, Strona(/y) 181-186, ISSN 1812-0792
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-181-2021

Internal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

Autorzy: Alvaro Lavin‐Gullon, Jesus Fernandez, Sophie Bastin, Rita M. Cardoso, Lluis Fita, Theodore M. Giannaros, Klaus Goergen, Jose Manuel Gutierrez, Stergios Kartsios, Eleni Katragkou, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Pedro M. M. Soares, Stefan Sobolowski, Kirsten Warrach‐Sagi
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 0899-8418
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6717

Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections

Autorzy: Hegerl, G., A. Ballinger, B. Booth, L.F. Borchert, L. Brunner, M. Donat, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Harris, J. Lowe, R. Mahmood, J. Mignot, J. Murphy, D. Swingedouw and A. Weisheimer
Opublikowane w: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Wydawca: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

Autorzy: James M. Ciarlo`, Erika Coppola, Adriano Fantini, Filippo Giorgi, XueJie Gao, Yao Tong, Russell H. Glazer, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Taleena Sines, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Sushant Das, Melissa Bukovsky, Moetasim Ashfaq, Eun-Soon Im, Thanh Nguyen-Xuan, Claas Teichmann, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Katharina Bülow, Torsten Weber, Lars Buntemeyer, Kevin Sieck, Diana Rechid, Daniel
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05400-5

Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity

Autorzy: Estella-Perez V, Mignot J, Guilyardi E, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 55, 2020, Strona(/y) 975-992, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05304-4

Assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of the added value on precipitation of convection-permitting simulation over the Iberian Peninsula using the RegIPSL regional earth system mode

Autorzy: Kumar-Shahi N., Polcher J., Bastin S., Pennel R., Fita L.
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 59, 2022, Strona(/y) 471-498, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06138-y

The aridity index under global warming

Autorzy: Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M., Wada, Y.
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 14(12), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046

Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2

Autorzy: J. Oelsmann, L. Borchert, R. Hand, J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087259

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

Autorzy: Daniel J. Befort; Kevin I. Hodges; Antje Weisheimer
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 35, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0041.1

Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

Autorzy: Borchert, Leonard F.; Pohlmann, Holger; Baehr, Johanna; Neddermann, Nele‐Charlotte; Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura; Müller, Wolfgang A.
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 46, 2019, Strona(/y) 14042-14051, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085385

WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25

Autorzy: Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Melissa Seabrook; Roberto Bilbao; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Etienne Tourigny; Vladimir Lapin; Viatcheslav V. Kharin; William J. Merryfield; Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso; Panos Athanasiadis; Dario Nicoli; Silvio Gualdi; Nick Dunstone; Rosie Eade; Adam Scaife; Mark Collier; Terence O’Kane; Vassili Kitsios; Paul Sandery; Klaus Pankatz; Barbara Früh; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang M
Opublikowane w: American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Autorzy: Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, Reto Knutti
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 11/4, 2020, Strona(/y) 995-1012, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions

Autorzy: Terrado, M., Lledó, L., Bojovic, D., St Clair, A. L., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Manzanas, R., San-Martín, D. & Christel, I.
Opublikowane w: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numer 100, 2019, Strona(/y) 1909-1921, ISSN 0003-0007
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0214.1

Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions

Autorzy: Benestad, R., Caron, L.-P., Parding, K., Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez Llorente, J. M., Mezghani, A. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
Opublikowane w: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology & Oceanography, Numer 02806495, 2019, ISSN 0280-6495
Wydawca: Swedish Geophysical Society: Munksgaard
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

Autorzy: Meehl GA, Teng H, Smith D, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06272-7

Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe

Autorzy: Manning C, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 58, 2022, Strona(/y) 2387-2404, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4

The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble

Autorzy: Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Christiansen, Bo; Yang, Shuting
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 54, 2020, Strona(/y) 2561–2575, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05131-7

Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0

Autorzy: Simon Michel; Didier Swingedouw; Marie Chavent; Pablo Ortega; Juliette Mignot; Myriam Khodri
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 13, 2020, Strona(/y) 841-858, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020

Extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate over Europe

Autorzy: Vergara-Temprado, J., N. Ban and C. Schär
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089506

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Autorzy: Carvalho-Oliveira J, Borchert LF, Duchez A, et al
Opublikowane w: Climate & Weather Dynamics, Numer 2, 2021, Strona(/y) 739-757, ISSN 2698-4016
Wydawca: Springer Science & Business Media
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach

Autorzy: Doury A., Somot S., Gadat S., Ribes A., Corre L.
Opublikowane w: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015
Wydawca: Research Square LLC
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-725819/v1

Impact_du_changement_climatique_sur_les_precipitations_extremes_dans_le_sud-est_de_la_France_apport_des_modeles_resolvant_la_convection_profonde (PhD Thesis, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse III)

Autorzy: Fumière Q.
Opublikowane w: Hal Open Science, 2019, ISSN 2267-828x
Wydawca: CCSD

Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

Autorzy: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Opublikowane w: Earth System Science Data, Numer 11/4, 2019, Strona(/y) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516
Wydawca: not applicable
DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019

Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

Autorzy: Belušić Vozila, A., Danijel Belušić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak et al
Opublikowane w: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015
Wydawca: Research Square Company
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1622667/v1

Long range predictability of the length of day and extratropical surface climate

Autorzy: Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., van Niekerk, A., Andrews, M., Baldwin, M. P., Belcher S., Bett, P., Comer, R. E., Dunstone N. J., Geen R., Hardiman S. C., Ineson S., Knight J., Nie Y., Ren H.-L., and Smith D.
Opublikowane w: EGU General Assembly 2021, 2021
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-191

Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Autorzy: Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Numer Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019
Wydawca: European Geophysical Union

Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Autorzy: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Numer Vol. 21, 2019
Wydawca: European Geophysical Union

Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note

Autorzy: Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Doblas Reyes, Francisco
Opublikowane w: Universitat Politècnica Commons. Global access to UPC knowledge, 2018
Wydawca: Universitat Politècnica

How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Autorzy: Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
Opublikowane w: 2020
Wydawca: EU

Wyszukiwanie danych OpenAIRE...

Rezultaty

Publikacje

Udostępnij tę stronę

Pobierz