Risultati finali Documents, reports (33) Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections Potential future case studies and events of interest This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation Outlook of future hazards Outlook of future hazards Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate) Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs Activities in research communities related to climate prediction Activities in research communities related to climate prediction Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final) Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report) Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years Policy briefings - ready for dissemination Policy briefings ready for dissemination Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card)) Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card Usability of EUCP service products for end users Usability of EUCP service products for end users End user requirements for the EUCP Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO) Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years) Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice Open Research Data Pilot (1) Data Management Plan Data Management Plan Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (2) Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation Project website and internal collaboration platform Project website and internal collaboration platform available Other (2) Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website Pubblicazioni Peer reviewed articles (162) Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios Autori: Tramblay, Y., et al. Pubblicato in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 210, 2020, Page(s) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348 Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change Autori: Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models Autori: Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al Pubblicato in: Global and Planetary Change, Issue 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055 An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles Autori: Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/3, 2020, Page(s) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020 Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps Autori: Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C. Pubblicato in: WIREs Climate Change, Issue 12(6), 2021, Page(s) e731, ISSN 1757-7799 Editore: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731 Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model Autori: Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/1-2, 2020, Page(s) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8 Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally Autori: Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, Page(s) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898 The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation Autori: Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378 Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Autori: Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922 Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Issue 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1002/asl.922 How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature? Autori: Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/2, 2021, Page(s) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1 Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans Autori: Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy Pubblicato in: Ocean Science, Issue 18120792, 2021, Page(s) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021 Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues Autori: Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project Autori: Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34/1, 2021, Page(s) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1 Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation Autori: Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875 Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks Autori: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R. Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106 Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections Autori: Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y Pubblicato in: Nature Sustainability, Issue 1, 2018, Page(s) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629 Editore: Springer Nature DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9 Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene Autori: Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al Pubblicato in: Earth Science Reviews, Issue 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286 The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections Autori: J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 13, 2022, Page(s) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979 Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022 A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast Autori: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R. Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Marine Science, Issue 8, 2021, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754 An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer Autori: O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079 North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply Autori: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P Pubblicato in: Nature, Issue 583/7818, 2020, Page(s) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0 The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation Autori: Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4 The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data Autori: Christiansen, B. Pubblicato in: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Issue 28, 2021, Page(s) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021 Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth Autori: Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 12, 2019, Page(s) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979 Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66 Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 Autori: Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al Pubblicato in: Geoscience Model Development, Issue 14, 2021, Page(s) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03 Autori: Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al Pubblicato in: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Issue 8, 2019, Page(s) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025 Editore: KeAi Elsevier DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03 Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions Autori: Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, Issue 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634 Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling Autori: Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries Pubblicato in: Weather and climate extremes, Issue 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823 Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia Autori: Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1 Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion Autori: Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10/3, 2020, Page(s) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0 Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 Autori: Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307 Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model Autori: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 56, 2021, Page(s) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR Autori: Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340 HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales Autori: Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/3, 2020, Page(s) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020 Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea Autori: Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S. Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022 Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions Autori: Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 15/10, 2020, Page(s) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings Autori: Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D. Pubblicato in: Journal of Urban Climate, Issue 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159 Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Autori: Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11, 2020, Page(s) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979 Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model Autori: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6 Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector Autori: Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043 Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate Autori: Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Issue 4, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7 A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping Autori: Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Issue 12, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9 Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions Autori: Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900 Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model Autori: Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE) Autori: Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 53, 2019, Page(s) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia Autori: Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/7-8, 2020, Page(s) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3 Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty Autori: Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435 Editore: Nature DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7 Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature Autori: Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722 Editore: Nature Research DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1 The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle Autori: Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2 Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions Autori: Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Gonzalez-Reviriego N. Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35, 2022, Page(s) 4363-4382, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0811.1 Testing Methods of Pattern Extraction for Climate Data Using Synthetic Modes Autori: Fulton DJ, Hegerl GC Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 34, 2021, Page(s) 7645-7660, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0871.1 Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain Autori: Ozturk T, Matte D, Christensen JH Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0 How to create an operational multi-model of seasonal forecasts? Autori: Stephan Hemri; Jonas Bhend; Mark A. Liniger; Rodrigo Manzanas; Stefan Siegert; David B. Stephenson; José M. Gutiérrez; Anca Brookshaw; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55, 2020, Page(s) 1141-1157, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05314-2 European daily precipitation according to EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) and high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) Autori: Marie-Estelle Demory, Ségolène Berthou, Jesús Fernández, Silje L. Sørland, Roman Brogli, Malcolm J. Roberts, Urs Beyerle, Jon Seddon, Rein Haarsma, Christoph Schär, Erasmo Buonomo, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo ̀, Rowan Fealy, Grigory Nikulin, Daniele Peano, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Christian Steger, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/11, 2020, Page(s) 5485-5506, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-5485-2020 Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate Autori: Haibo Du; Markus G. Donat; Shengwei Zong; Lisa V. Alexander; Rodrigo Manzanas; Andries Kruger; Gwangyong Choi; Jim Salinger; Hong S. He; Mai-He Li; Fumiaki Fujibe; Banzragch Nandintsetseg; Shafiqur Rehman; Farhat Abbas; Matilde Rusticucci; Arvind Srivastava; Panmao Zhai; Tanya Lippmann; Ibouraïma Yabi; Michael C. Stambaugh; Shengzhong Wang; Altangerel Batbold; Priscilla Teles de Oliveira; Muhamma Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Page(s) 1130-1145, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0140.1 Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening Autori: Bonnet R, Swingedouw D, Gastineau G, et al Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Issue 20411723, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0 Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions Autori: Befort D.J., Brunner L, Borchert LF, et al Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 00948276, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098568 Presentation and Evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR Ensemble of Extended Historical Simulations Autori: Bonnet R, Boucher O, Deshayes J, et al Pubblicato in: Journal of Advanced Model Earth System (JAMES), Issue 13, 2021, ISSN 1942-2466 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002565 How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector Autori: Solaraju-Murali, B., D. Bojovic, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, A. Nicodemou, M. Terrado, L.-P. Caron and F.J. Doblas-Reyes Pubblicato in: Climate Services, Issue 27, 2022, Page(s) 100303, ISSN 2405-8807 Editore: Elsevier DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100303 AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting? Autori: Swingedouw D, Houssais M-N, Herbaut C, Blaizot A-C, Devilliers M and Deshayes J Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, Issue 4, 2022, Page(s) 838310, ISSN 2624-9553 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.838310 Spatial extent of precipitation events: when big is getting bigger Autori: Matte D, Christensen JH, Ozturk T Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 1861-1875, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05998-0 On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models. Autori: Didier Swingedouw; Adrien Bily; Claire Esquerdo; Leonard Borchert; Giovanni Sgubin; Juliette Mignot; Matthew Menary Pubblicato in: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Issue 1504, 2021, Page(s) 187-201, ISSN 0077-8923 Editore: New York Academy of Sciences DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14659 Potential and limitations of convection-permitting CNRM-AROME climate modelling in the French Alps Autori: Monteiro D, Caillaud C, Samacoïts R, et al Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, 2022, Page(s) 1-24, ISSN 0899-8418 Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7637 The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden–set in a historical context Autori: Wilcke, R. A., Kjellström, E., Lin, C., Matei, D., & Moberg, A. Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11 (4), 2020, Page(s) 1-22, ISSN 2190-4987 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020 Contrasting lightning projection using the lightning potential index adapted in a convection-permitting regional climate model Autori: Brisson E, Blahak U, Lucas-Picher P, et al Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 2037-2051, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05791-z Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study Autori: Ruprich-Robert Y, Moreno-Chamarro E, Levine X, et al Pubblicato in: npj Climate & Atmpspheric Science, Issue 4, 2021, ISSN 2397-3722 Editore: MDPI DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5 Constraining decadal variability yields skillful projections of near-term climate change Autori: Mahmood, R., M.G. Donat, P. Ortega, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and Y. Ruprich-Robert Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2021gl094915 Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales Autori: Gerald A. Meehl; Jadwiga H. Richter; Haiyan Teng; Antonietta Capotondi; Antonietta Capotondi; Kim M. Cobb; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes; Markus G. Donat; Matthew H. England; John C. Fyfe; Weiqing Han; Hye-Mi Kim; Ben P. Kirtman; Yochanan Kushnir; Nicole S. Lovenduski; Nicole S. Lovenduski; Michael E. Mann; William J. Merryfield; Veronica Nieves; Kathy Pegion; Nan Rosenbloom Pubblicato in: Nature reviews earth and environment, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 340-357, ISSN 2662-138X Editore: Springer Nature Limited DOI: 10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x An Analysis of (Sub-)Hourly Rainfall in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations Over Southern Sweden From a User’s Perspective Autori: Jonas Olsson; Yiheng Du; Dong An; Cintia Bertacchi Uvo; Johanna Sörensen; Erika Toivonen; Danijel Belušić; Andreas Dobler Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Earth Science, Issue 9, 2021, ISSN 2296-6463 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.681312 Future continental summer warming constrained by the present-day seasonal cycle of surface hydrology Autori: F. M. Selten, R. Bintanja, R. Vautard, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-61721-9 Déclin des deux plus grands glaciers des Alpes françaises au cours du 21ème siècle: Argentière et Mer de Glace Autori: Vincent, C., Peyaud, V., Laarman, O., Six, D., Gilbert, A., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Berthier, E., Morin, S., Verfaillie, D., Rabatel, A., Jourdain, B. & Bolibar, J. Pubblicato in: La Météorologie, Issue 106, 2019, Page(s) 49-58, ISSN 2107-0830 Editore: unknown DOI: 10.4267/2042/70369 Leach NJ, Weisheimer A, Allen MR, Palmer T (2021) Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 118:. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2112087118 Autori: Leach NJ, Weisheimer A, Allen MR, Palmer T Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, Issue 118, 2021, ISSN 1091-6490 Editore: National Academy of Sciences DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112087118 Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections Autori: Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Robrecht D. Visser; Peter Greve; Berny Bisselink; Lukas Brunner; Albrecht H. Weerts; Albrecht H. Weerts Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Water, Issue 3, 2021, ISSN 2624-9375 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2021.713537 Climate change impacts on future driving and walking conditions in Finland, Norway and Sweden Autori: Freistetter, NC., Médus, E., Hippi, M., Kangas, M., Dobler, A., Belušić, D., Käyhkö, J. & Partanen, A.-I. Pubblicato in: Regional Environmental Change, Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 58, ISSN 1436-3798 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01920-4 Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves Autori: Cowan T, Undorf S, Hegerl GC, et al Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 10, 2020, Page(s) 505+, ISSN 1758-678X Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7 Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change Autori: Hylke de Vries; Geert Lenderink; Karin van der Wiel; Erik van Meijgaard Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06250-z Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe Autori: Fabian von Trentini; Emma Aalbers; Emma Aalbers; Erich M. Fischer; Ralf Ludwig Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 1013-1031 (2020), Issue 11, 2020, Page(s) 1013-1031, ISSN 2190-4979 Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000453629 The forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation: non-stationary and fragile skills Autori: Christiansen, B., Shuting Yang, and Dominic Matte Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0807.1 Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting Autori: Torben Schmith; Peter Thejll; Peter Berg; Fredrik Boberg; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Bo Christiansen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Marianne Sloth Madsen; Christian Steger Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Issue 25, 2021, Page(s) 273-290, ISSN 1607-7938 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-273-2021 Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming Autori: Brady Ferster; Alexey V. Fedorov; Alexey V. Fedorov; Juliette Mignot; Eric Guilyardi; Eric Guilyardi Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 2433-2451, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05813-w Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index Autori: Koul, Vimal; Tesdal, Jan-Erik; Bersch, Manfred; Hátún, Hjálmar; Brune, Sebastian; Borchert, Leonard; Haak, Helmuth; Schrum, Corinna; Baehr, Johanna Pubblicato in: Scientific reports, Issue 10, 2020, Page(s) 1005, ISSN 2045-2322 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-57790-5 Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems Autori: Swingedouw D, Speranza CI, Bartsch A, et al Pubblicato in: Survey in Geophysics, Issue 41, 2020, Page(s) 1237-1284, ISSN 1573-0956 Editore: Elsevier DOI: 10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6 Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Autori: D J Befort, T Kruschke, G C Leckebusch Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Communications, Issue 2/3, 2020, Page(s) 031005, ISSN 2515-7620 Editore: IOP Publishing Ltd DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab7b35 Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C Autori: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/21, 2018, Page(s) 11,895-11,903, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079362 Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate Autori: Yochanan Kushnir, Adam A. Scaife, Raymond Arritt, Gianpaolo Balsamo, George Boer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Masahide Kimoto, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Katja Matthes, Wolfgang A. Müller, Terence O’Kane, Judith Perlwitz, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Akihiko Shimpo, Doug Smith, Matthias Tuma, Bo Wu Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/2, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-678X Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7 Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Autori: D. M. Smith, R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, X. Yang Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 2/1, 2019, Page(s) 1-10, ISSN 2397-3722 Editore: Springer Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? Autori: Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O’Reilly, T.N. Stockdale, S. Johnson, T.N. Palmer Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 0035-9009 Editore: Royal Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1002/qj.3446 Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean Autori: Yves Tramblay, Samuel Somot Pubblicato in: Climatic Change, Issue 151/2, 2018, Page(s) 289-302, ISSN 0165-0009 Editore: Reidel Pub. Co. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5 Toward a European Climate Prediction System Autori: Chris D. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 99/10, 2018, Page(s) 1997-2001, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0022.1 Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe Autori: Dominic Matte, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Issue 6, 2019, ISSN 2296-665X Editore: Frontiers DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2018.00163 Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling Autori: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Morten A. D. Larsen, Ole B. Christensen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, Page(s) 1-13, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality Autori: Bo Christiansen Pubblicato in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 147/5, 2019, Page(s) 1699-1712, ISSN 0027-0644 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0211.1 A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean Autori: Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele, B. Ahrens, I. Anders, N. Ban, S. Bastin, M. Belda, D. Belusic, A. Caldas-Alvarez, R. M. Cardoso, S. Davolio, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, L. Fita, Q. Fumiere, F. Giorgi, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, D. Heinzeller, Ø. Hodnebrog, D. Jacob, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, E. Kendon, S. Khodayar, H. Kunstmann, S. Knist, A. Lavín-Gullón, P. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Page(s) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8 Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution Autori: Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G. Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, 10, Issue 5, 2019, Page(s) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000339757 A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions Autori: Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124/6, 2019, Page(s) 2882-2896, ISSN 2169-897X Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029541 Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset Autori: R. Manzanas, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. Bhend, S. Hemri, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Torralba, E. Penabad, A. Brookshaw Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04640-4 Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe Autori: Luis R. L. Rodrigues, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Caio A. S. Coelho Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4 Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation Autori: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Issue 13/4, 2019, Page(s) 1325-1347, ISSN 1994-0424 Editore: European Geoscience Union DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019 Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States Autori: Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Soret, Albert Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Issue 6, 2018, Page(s) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019 Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4 Autori: Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 52/5-6, 2019, Page(s) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5 Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions Autori: Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0 Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts Autori: P. Spandre, H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George, S. Morin Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8 The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps Autori: Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0190.1 Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting Autori: Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO Autori: Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, David W. Smith, Stefano Tibaldi Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722 Editore: Springer Nature DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6 Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale Autori: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, Page(s) 11895, ISSN 2045-2322 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0 "Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation" Autori: Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24/3, 2020, Page(s) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938 Editore: European Geophysical Union DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020 Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model Autori: P. Greve, P. Burek, Y. Wada Pubblicato in: Water Resources Research, Issue 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026280 Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model Autori: Steven C. Chan, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Ségolène Berthou, Giorgia Fosser, Elizabeth Lewis, Hayley J. Fowler Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations Autori: Borchert, L.F., V. Koul, V., M.B. Menary, D.J. Befort, D. Swingedouw, G. Sgubin and J. Mignot Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 16 (104017), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models Autori: Thomassen ED, Kendon EJ, Sorup HJD, et al Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3029-3043, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05854-1 Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework Autori: Lukas Brunner, Carol McSweeney, Andrew P. Ballinger, Daniel J. Befort, Marianna Benassi, Ben Booth, Erika Coppola, Hylke de Vries, Glen Harris, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Geert Lenderink, Jason Lowe, Rita Nogherotto, Chris O’Reilly, Saïd Qasmi, Aurélien Ribes, Paolo Stocchi, Sabine Undorf Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 33/20, 2020, Page(s) 8671-8692, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0953.1 Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector Autori: Solaraju-Murali, B., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Caron, L.P., Ceglar, A., Toreti, A., Zampieri, M., Bretonnière, P.A., Samsó Cabré, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 4(1), 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2397-3722 Editore: MDPI DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00189-4 Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences Autori: Julien Boé; Samuel Somot; Lola Corre; Pierre Nabat Pubblicato in: "Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2020, 54 (5-6), pp.2981-3002. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1⟩", Issue 1, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1 Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill Autori: Christopher H. O'Reilly; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; David MacLeod; Daniel J. Befort; Tim Palmer Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020, ISSN 1477-870X Editore: RMS DOI: 10.1002/qj.3890 Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles Autori: Bo Christiansen Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 33/21, 2020, Page(s) 9447-9465, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0186.1 How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be? Autori: Jain S, Scaife AA Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 17, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4655 Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period Autori: Gillett NP, Kirchmeier-Young M, Ribes A, et al Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 11, 2021, Page(s) 207-212, ISSN 1758-678X Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9 Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains Autori: Stocchi, Paolo; Pichelli, Emanuela; Torres Alavez, Jose Abraham; Coppola, Erika; Giuliani, Graziano; Giorgi, Filippo Pubblicato in: Atmosphere, 13 (6), Issue 1, 2022, ISSN 2073-4433 Editore: Rotoweb Cantelli DOI: 10.3390/atmos13060861 Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change Autori: Kahraman, A., Kendon, E., Chan, S., & Fowler, H. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48 (13), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092361 Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation. Autori: Evin G, Hingray B, Blanchet J, et al Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 32, 2019, Page(s) 2423-2440, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0606.1 Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures Autori: Müller, W. A., Borchert, L. & Ghosh, R. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086043 Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022 Autori: Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022 Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Issue 22, 2022, Page(s) 693-711, ISSN 1684-9981 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022 Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century Autori: Weisheimer A, Befort DJ, MacLeod D, et al Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 101, 2020, Page(s) e1413-e1426, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0019.1 Climate models permit convection at much coarser resolutions than previously considered. Autori: Jesus Vergara-Temprado; Nikolina Ban; Davide Panosetti; Linda Schlemmer; Christoph Schär Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 33, 2020, Page(s) 1915-1933, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0286.1 Towards an objective assessment of climate multi-model ensembles - a case study: the Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling region Autori: Mignot J, Mejia C, Sorror C, et al Pubblicato in: Geoscience Model Development, Issue 13, 2020, Page(s) 2723-2742, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-2723-2020 Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models Autori: Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F. and Knutti, R. Pubblicato in: Science Advances, Issue 6(12), 2020, ISSN 2375-2548 Editore: AAAS (American Association for the Advances of Science) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management Autori: Peter Burek, Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Ting Tang, Peter Greve, Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Fang Zhao, Yoshihide Wada Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13/7, 2020, Page(s) 3267-3298, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020 Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective Autori: Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. & Shaffrey, L. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084402 Projections and uncertainties of sandy beach loss due to sea level rise at the European scale Autori: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J. Pubblicato in: EGU General Assembly 2020, Issue EGU2020-10149, 2020, ISSN 1866-3508 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10149 Users cognitive load: A key aspect to successfully communicate visual climate information Autori: Luz Calvo; Isadora Christel; Marta Terrado; Fernando M. Cucchietti; Mario Pérez-Montoro Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0166.1 Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space Autori: Marianna Adinolfi, Mario Raffa, Alfredo Reder, Paola Mercogliano Pubblicato in: Atmosphere, Issue 12/1, 2021, Page(s) 54, ISSN 2073-4433 Editore: Rotoweb Cantelli DOI: 10.3390/atmos12010054 Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions Autori: Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H., & Weisheimer, A. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090059 How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections Autori: Tamzin Palmer; Ben B. B. Booth; Carol McSweeney Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 16, 2021, Page(s) 1-15, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504579.1 Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model Autori: Lenderink G, De Vries H, Fowler HJ, et al Pubblicato in: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Issue 379, 2021, ISSN 0080-4614 Editore: The Royal Society Publishing DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0544 Making climate projections conditional on historical observations Autori: Aurélien Ribes, Saïd Qasmi, Nathan P. Gillett Pubblicato in: Science Advances, Issue 7/4, 2021, Page(s) eabc0671, ISSN 2375-2548 Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0671 Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change Autori: Yadu Pokhrel; Farshid Felfelani; Yusuke Satoh; Yusuke Satoh; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Anne Gädeke; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Hyungjun Kim; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Junguo Liu; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Jacob Schewe; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tobias Stacke; Camelia Eliza Telteu; Wim Thiery; Wim Thiery; Ted Veldkamp; Ted Vel Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 11, 2021, Page(s) 226-333, ISSN 1758-6798 Editore: Nature Publishing Group DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w Towards useful decadal climate services Autori: Dunstone, N., Lockwood, J., Solaraju-Murali, B., Reinhardt, K., Tsartsali, E. E., Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Brookshaw, A., Caron, L., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Früh, B., González-Reviriego, N., Gualdi, S., Hermanson, L., Materia, S., Nicodemou, A., Nicolì, D., Pankatz, K., Paxian, A., Scaife, A., Smith, D., & Thornton, H. E. Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0190.1 Selecting regional climate scenarios for impact modelling studies Autori: Wilcke, R. A. I., Bärring, L. Pubblicato in: Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, ISSN 1364-8152 Editore: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.002 Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe Autori: Giovanni Sgubin; Didier Swingedouw; Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Thomas Noël; Harilaos Loukos; Juliette Mignot Pubblicato in: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03318273, Issue 57, 2021, Page(s) 3245-3263, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0 Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data Autori: O'Reilly, C.H., D.J. Befort, and A. Weisheimer Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 2190-4979 Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020 Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes Autori: Felicitas Hansen; Danijel Belušić Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, Issue 1, 2021, ISSN 0899-8418 Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7171 The transient sensitivity of sea level rise Autori: Grinsted A, Christensen JH Pubblicato in: Ocean Science, Issue 17, 2021, Page(s) 181-186, ISSN 1812-0792 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/os-17-181-2021 Internal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty in a regional climate model Autori: Alvaro Lavin‐Gullon, Jesus Fernandez, Sophie Bastin, Rita M. Cardoso, Lluis Fita, Theodore M. Giannaros, Klaus Goergen, Jose Manuel Gutierrez, Stergios Kartsios, Eleni Katragkou, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Pedro M. M. Soares, Stefan Sobolowski, Kirsten Warrach‐Sagi Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 0899-8418 Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1002/joc.6717 Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections Autori: Hegerl, G., A. Ballinger, B. Booth, L.F. Borchert, L. Brunner, M. Donat, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Harris, J. Lowe, R. Mahmood, J. Mignot, J. Murphy, D. Swingedouw and A. Weisheimer Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553 Editore: Frontiers Media SA DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109 A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles Autori: James M. Ciarlo`, Erika Coppola, Adriano Fantini, Filippo Giorgi, XueJie Gao, Yao Tong, Russell H. Glazer, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Taleena Sines, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Sushant Das, Melissa Bukovsky, Moetasim Ashfaq, Eun-Soon Im, Thanh Nguyen-Xuan, Claas Teichmann, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Katharina Bülow, Torsten Weber, Lars Buntemeyer, Kevin Sieck, Diana Rechid, Daniel Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05400-5 Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity Autori: Estella-Perez V, Mignot J, Guilyardi E, et al Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55, 2020, Page(s) 975-992, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05304-4 Assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of the added value on precipitation of convection-permitting simulation over the Iberian Peninsula using the RegIPSL regional earth system mode Autori: Kumar-Shahi N., Polcher J., Bastin S., Pennel R., Fita L. Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 59, 2022, Page(s) 471-498, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06138-y The aridity index under global warming Autori: Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M., Wada, Y. Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14(12), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326 Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046 Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2 Autori: J. Oelsmann, L. Borchert, R. Hand, J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087259 Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Autori: Daniel J. Befort; Kevin I. Hodges; Antje Weisheimer Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Issue 35, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0041.1 Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes Autori: Borchert, Leonard F.; Pohlmann, Holger; Baehr, Johanna; Neddermann, Nele‐Charlotte; Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura; Müller, Wolfgang A. Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 46, 2019, Page(s) 14042-14051, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085385 WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25 Autori: Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Melissa Seabrook; Roberto Bilbao; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Etienne Tourigny; Vladimir Lapin; Viatcheslav V. Kharin; William J. Merryfield; Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso; Panos Athanasiadis; Dario Nicoli; Silvio Gualdi; Nick Dunstone; Rosie Eade; Adam Scaife; Mark Collier; Terence O’Kane; Vassili Kitsios; Paul Sandery; Klaus Pankatz; Barbara Früh; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang M Pubblicato in: American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1 Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence Autori: Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, Reto Knutti Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 11/4, 2020, Page(s) 995-1012, ISSN 2190-4987 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020 The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions Autori: Terrado, M., Lledó, L., Bojovic, D., St Clair, A. L., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Manzanas, R., San-Martín, D. & Christel, I. Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 100, 2019, Page(s) 1909-1921, ISSN 0003-0007 Editore: American Meteorological Society DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0214.1 Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions Autori: Benestad, R., Caron, L.-P., Parding, K., Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez Llorente, J. M., Mezghani, A. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J. Pubblicato in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology & Oceanography, Issue 02806495, 2019, ISSN 0280-6495 Editore: Swedish Geophysical Society: Munksgaard DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882 The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions Autori: Meehl GA, Teng H, Smith D, et al Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06272-7 Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe Autori: Manning C, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, et al Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 58, 2022, Page(s) 2387-2404, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4 The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble Autori: Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Christiansen, Bo; Yang, Shuting Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 54, 2020, Page(s) 2561–2575, ISSN 0930-7575 Editore: Springer Verlag DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05131-7 Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0 Autori: Simon Michel; Didier Swingedouw; Marie Chavent; Pablo Ortega; Juliette Mignot; Myriam Khodri Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Issue 13, 2020, Page(s) 841-858, ISSN 1991-9603 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020 Extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate over Europe Autori: Vergara-Temprado, J., N. Ban and C. Schär Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276 Editore: American Geophysical Union DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089506 Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic Autori: Carvalho-Oliveira J, Borchert LF, Duchez A, et al Pubblicato in: Climate & Weather Dynamics, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 739-757, ISSN 2698-4016 Editore: Springer Science & Business Media DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021 Non-peer reviewed articles (3) Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach Autori: Doury A., Somot S., Gadat S., Ribes A., Corre L. Pubblicato in: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015 Editore: Research Square LLC DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-725819/v1 Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat Autori: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe Pubblicato in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 11/4, 2019, Page(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516 Editore: not applicable DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019 Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble Autori: Belušić Vozila, A., Danijel Belušić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak et al Pubblicato in: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015 Editore: Research Square Company DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1622667/v1 Conference proceedings (3) Long range predictability of the length of day and extratropical surface climate Autori: Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., van Niekerk, A., Andrews, M., Baldwin, M. P., Belcher S., Bett, P., Comer, R. E., Dunstone N. J., Geen R., Hardiman S. C., Ineson S., Knight J., Nie Y., Ren H.-L., and Smith D. Pubblicato in: EGU General Assembly 2021, 2021 Editore: Copernicus Publications DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-191 Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall Autori: Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Issue Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019 Editore: European Geophysical Union Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale Autori: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Issue Vol. 21, 2019 Editore: European Geophysical Union Other (2) Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note Autori: Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Doblas Reyes, Francisco Pubblicato in: Universitat Politècnica Commons. Global access to UPC knowledge, 2018 Editore: Universitat Politècnica How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns Autori: Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R. Pubblicato in: 2020 Editore: EU È in corso la ricerca di dati su OpenAIRE... Si è verificato un errore durante la ricerca dei dati su OpenAIRE Nessun risultato disponibile
