European Climate Prediction system

Resultado final

Portfolio of suitable post-processed high-impact weather events for the present day and near future

Portfolio of suitable postprocessed highimpact weather events for the present day and near future

Concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Report about concepts for prototype products and business and adaptation strategies making use of the EUCP system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and non-initialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Development of methods to merge probabilistic forecasts based on global initialised and noninitialised predictions to provide a seamless prediction system

Climate/non-climatic attribution of hydro-meteorological events and losses
Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities
Merging methods based on, and added value of, the high-resolution regional climate simulations

Report on merging methods based on and added value of the highresolution regional climate simulations

Evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Report on the evaluation and combination of potential observational/emergent constraints relevant to European climate projections

Potential future case studies and events of interest

This deliverable will include a short description of the case studies used in WP4 the sectors concerned data and methods used and the success or difficulties encountered It will also use the experience from the work package to propose a set of future case studies or events to be considered in future projects together with a selection strategy based on discussions that occurred with stakeholders or from experience These cases will consider the sectors where WP4 has worked on but also other potential sectors This deliverable could therefore feed the thinking about the legacy of EUCP

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Outlook of future hazards
Production of uncertainty quantifications/PDFs, including separation into different components

Production of uncertainty quantificationsPDFs including separation into different components natural variability model uncertainty forcing uncertainty

Recommendations for the development of a new generation of climate forecast systems
Evaluation of forecast quality over the 1-40 year time span for both global initialised forecasts and the non-initialised projections
Exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions

Report on exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Identification of optimal subset of future climate realisations and provision of event set of present and future extreme events

Set of plausible scenarios optimised for the climate around 2050 and optimised for the transient period that are set in the context of the UQsPDFs from Deliverable D23 In addition selection of a set of short extreme weather episodes in present and future climate

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Relevance of observational and emerging constraints and their reflection in the prediction distribution functions
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (intermediate)

Intermediate collection of reports about feedback and EUCPdesign decisions

Evaluation of the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Evaluation report on the difference methods to produce uncertainty quantifications/PDFs

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction
Feedback and EUCP-design decisions (final)

Final collection of reports about feedback and design decisions and joint activities between research communities

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (short technical briefing report)

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions short technical briefing report

Merging method developed for storylines, and the production of combined time-series and events sets

Report on merging method developed for storylines and the production of combined timeseries and events sets generated from a combination of initialised and noninitialised model simulations with guidance on their use

Fully assessed multi-model based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future period

Fully assessed multimodel based ensemble of simulations of high impact weather events for the historical and near future periods approximately 1 40 years

Policy briefings - ready for dissemination

Policy briefings ready for dissemination

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions (glossy non-technical policy card))

Development and exploitation of simulations for the EU Outermost Regions glossy nontechnical policy card

Usability of EUCP service products for end users
End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions

Compilation and combination of multiple initialised climate predictions and delivery of real time climate predictions (in collaboration with WMO)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon (up to 10 years)

Construction of probability forecasts for the near term horizon up to 10 years from multiple sources of information for a number of the most commonly used variables and tailored to specific applications

Recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Report on recommendations for collaboration protocols for identified cluster-projects

Policy briefings about knowledge gaps and best practice

Data Management Plan

Data access infrastructure for end-users with appropriate documentation

Data access infrastructure for endusers with appropriate documentation

Project website and internal collaboration platform

Project website and internal collaboration platform available

Data access, analytics and provenance infrastructure for scientists
Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance

Quality checker for EUCP-data to check the CDS-compliance (meta-data and consistency of EUCP data itself)

Training about EUCP data services infrastructure and use

Training aimed at scientists in work packages and partner projects. Training documents, recordings and minutes will be made available on website

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers

Workshop about EUCP end user data services infrastructure for climate service providers. Training documents, recordings and minutes of the training produced and made publicly available on website

Publicaciones

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Autores: Tramblay, Y., et al.
Publicado en: Earth Science Reviews, Edición 210, 2020, Página(s) 103348, ISSN 0012-8252
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348

Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Autores: Fabian Stenzel; Peter Greve; Wolfgang Lucht; Wolfgang Lucht; Sylvia Tramberend; Yoshihide Wada; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 2, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

Autores: Gainusa-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, et al
Publicado en: Global and Planetary Change, Edición 184, 2020, ISSN 0921-8181
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103055

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Autores: Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, Reto Knutti
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 11/3, 2020, Página(s) 807-834, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020

Convection‐permitting modeling with regional climate models: Latest developments and next steps

Autores: Lucas‐Picher, P., Argüeso, D., Brisson, E., Tramblay, Y., Berg, P., Lemonsu, A., Kotlarski, S., Caillaud, C.
Publicado en: WIREs Climate Change, Edición 12(6), 2021, Página(s) e731, ISSN 1757-7799
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society and the Royal Geographical Society
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.731

Extreme rainfall in Mediterranean France during the fall: added value of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model

Autores: Quentin Fumière, Michel Déqué, Olivier Nuissier, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Cécile Caillaud, Olivier Laurantin, Yann Seity
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 55/1-2, 2020, Página(s) 77-91, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04898-8

Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Autores: Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Priscilla Teles; Adrees, Muhamma
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 46, 2019, Página(s) 6041-6049, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl081898

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, Part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Autores: Nikolina Ban; Cécile Caillaud; Erika Coppola; Emanuela Pichelli; Stefan Sobolowski; Marianna Adinolfi; Bodo Ahrens; Antoinette Alias; Ivonne Anders; Sophie Bastin; Danijel Belušić; Ségolène Berthou; Erwan Brisson; Rita M. Cardoso; Steven Chan; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Jesús Fernández; Lluis Fita; Thomas Frisius; Goran Gašparac; Filippo Giorgi; Klaus Goergen; Jan Erik Haugen; Øivind Hodne
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 57, 2021, Página(s) 275-302, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22378

Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions?

Autores: Scaife AA, Camp J, Comer R, et al (2019). Does increased atmospheric resolution improve seasonal climate predictions? Atmos Sci Lett 20. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.922
Publicado en: Atmospheric Science Letters, Edición 20, 2019, ISSN 1530-261X
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.922

How Reliable Are Decadal Climate Predictions of Near-Surface Air Temperature?

Autores: Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Verónica Torralba, Simon Wild
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 34/2, 2021, Página(s) 697-713, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0138.1

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in Northern Hemisphere oceans

Autores: Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté; Didier Swingedouw; J. J. M. Hirschi; Aurelie Duchez; Philip Leadbitter; Ivan D. Haigh; Gerard McCarthy
Publicado en: Ocean Science, Edición 18120792, 2021, Página(s) 1449-1471, ISSN 1812-0792
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-1449-2021

Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues

Autores: Menary MB, Mignot J, Robson J
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 16, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and North Atlantic Jet: A Multimodel View from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project

Autores: Paolo Ruggieri, Alessio Bellucci, Dario Nicolí, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Silvio Gualdi, Christophe Cassou, Fred Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paolo Davini, Nick Dunstone, Rosemary Eade, Guillaume Gastineau, Ben Harvey, Leon Hermanson, Saïd Qasmi, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Doug Smith, Simon Wild, Matteo Zampieri
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 34/1, 2021, Página(s) 347-360, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0981.1

Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation

Autores: Seungmok Paik; Seung-Ki Min; Seung-Ki Min; Xuebin Zhang; Markus G. Donat; Andrew D. King; Qiaohong Sun
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086875

Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on Neural Networks

Autores: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A. & Ranasinghe, R.
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), 2022, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-106

Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

Autores: Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y
Publicado en: Nature Sustainability, Edición 1, 2018, Página(s) 486-494, ISSN 2398-9629
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0134-9

Modes of climate variability: Synthesis and review of proxy-based reconstructions through the Holocene

Autores: Hernandez A, Martin-Puertas C, Moffa-Sanchez P, et al
Publicado en: Earth Science Reviews, Edición 209, 2020, ISSN 0012-8252
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103286

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Autores: J. Cos; F. Doblas-Reyes; F. Doblas-Reyes; M. Jury; M. Jury; R. Marcos; P.-A. Bretonnière; M. Samsó
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 13, 2022, Página(s) 321-340, ISSN 2190-4979
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-321-2022

A Clustering Approach for Predicting Dune Morphodynamic Response to Storms Using Typological Coastal Profiles: A Case Study at the Dutch Coast

Autores: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Antolinez, J.A.A.A., Ranasinghe, R.
Publicado en: Frontiers in Marine Science, Edición 8, 2021, Página(s) 1-20, ISSN 2296-7745
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.747754

An interdecadal shift of the extratropical ENSO teleconnection during boreal summer

Autores: O'Reilly, C., Woollings, T., Zanna, L. & Weisheimer, A.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084079

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Autores: D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, R. Eade, P. Athanasiadis, A. Bellucci, I. Bethke, R. Bilbao, L. F. Borchert, L.-P. Caron, F. Counillon, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, V. Estella-Perez, S. Flavoni, L. Hermanson, N. Keenlyside, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, J. Mignot, T. Mochizuki, K. Modali, P.-A. Monerie, W. A. Müller, D. Nicolí, P. Ortega, K. Pankatz, H. P
Publicado en: Nature, Edición 583/7818, 2020, Página(s) 796-800, ISSN 0028-0836
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

Autores: Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P., Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Chan, S., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., de Vries, H., Goergen, K., Keuler, K., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Panitz, H.-J., Schär, C., Pedro Soares, M. M., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., Cardoso, R. M., Kendon, E. J. & Mishra, A. N.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 56, 2021, Página(s) 3581-3602, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4

The blessing of dimensionality for the analysis of climate data

Autores: Christiansen, B.
Publicado en: Non-linear processes in Geophysics, Edición 28, 2021, Página(s) 409-422, ISSN 1023-5809
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.5194/npg-28-409-2021

Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 versio of EC-Earth

Autores: Bilbao, R., S. Wild, P. Ortega, J. Acosta-Navarro, T. Arsouze, P.-A. Bretonnière, L.-P. Caron, M. Castrillo, R. Cruz-García, I. Cvijanovic, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Donat, E. Dutra, P. Echevarría, A.-C. Ho, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, E. Moreno-Chamarro, N. Pérez-Zanon, A. Ramos, Y. Ruprich-Robert, V. Sicardi, E. Tourigny and J. Vegas-Regidor
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 12, 2019, Página(s) 173-196, ISSN 2190-4979
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-66

Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3

Autores: Tian T, Yang S, Karami MP, et al
Publicado en: Geoscience Model Development, Edición 14, 2021, Página(s) 4283-4305, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021

Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al (2019). Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Trop CYCLONE Res Rev 8:134–149. https://doi.org/10.6057/2019TCRR03.03

Autores: Klotzbach P, Blake E, Camp J, et al
Publicado en: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Edición 8, 2019, Página(s) 134-149, ISSN 2589-3025
Editor: KeAi Elsevier
DOI: 10.6057/2019tcrr03.03

Self-Organizing Maps Identify Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal European Summer Predictions

Autores: Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira; Leonard F. Borchert; Eduardo Zorita; Johanna Baehr
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, Edición 4, 2022, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.844634

Physical storylines of future European drought events like 2018 based on ensemble climate modelling

Autores: Karin van der Wiel; Geert Lenderink; Hylke de Vries
Publicado en: Weather and climate extremes, Edición 33, 2021, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1823

Statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling of seasonal forecasts: a case-study for Southeast Asia

Autores: Manzanas, R.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Bhend, J.; Hemri, S.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Penabad, E.; Brookshaw, A.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 54, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05145-1

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Autores: Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Theocharis A. Plomaritis, Panagiotis Athanasiou, Arjen Luijendijk, Luc Feyen
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 10/3, 2020, Página(s) 260-263, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0697-0

Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6

Autores: Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Didier Swingedouw; Giovanni Sgubin; Leon Hermanson; Juliette Mignot
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48 (3), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091307

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autores: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 56, 2021, Página(s) 1717-1752, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05558-y

The Tuning Strategy of IPSL-CM6A-LR

Autores: Mignot J, Hourdin F, Deshayes J, et al
Publicado en: Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021, ISSN 1942-2466
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020ms002340

HCLIM38: a flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection-permitting scales

Autores: Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, Minchao Wu
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 13/3, 2020, Página(s) 1311-1333, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-1311-2020

Cost-benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea

Autores: Amadio, M., Essenfelder, A.H., Bagli, S., Marzi, S., Mazzoli, P., Mysiak, J., Roberts, S.
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (EGU), Edición 22, 2022, Página(s) 265-286, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022

Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Autores: Andrew P Schurer, Andrew P Ballinger, Andrew R Friedman, Gabriele C Hegerl
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 15/10, 2020, Página(s) 104026, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83ab

Improved models, improved information? Exploring how climate change impacts pollen, influenza, and mold in Berlin and its surroundings

Autores: Langendijk, G.S., Rechid D. and Jacob D.
Publicado en: Journal of Urban Climate, Edición 43, 2022, ISSN 2212-0955
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101159

Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Autores: Lehner F, Deser C, Maher N, et al (2020) Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6. EARTH Syst Dyn 11:491–508. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 11, 2020, Página(s) 491-508, ISSN 2190-4979
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Autores: Caillaud C., Somot S., Alias A., Bernard-Bouissières I., Fumière Q., Laurantin O., Seity Y., Ducrocq V.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 58, 2022, Página(s) 625-630, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05887-6

Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector

Autores: Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 14/12, 2019, Página(s) 124014, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Autores: Kushnir, Yochanan; Scaife, Adam A.; Arritt, Raymond; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boer, George; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Kimoto, Masahide; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Matthes, Katja; Müller, Wolfgang A.; O’Kane, Terence; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Shimpo, Akihiko; Smith, Doug; Tuma, Matthias; Wu, Bo
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, 9 . pp. 94-101., Edición 4, 2019, Página(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

A global analysis of extreme coastal water levels with implications for potential coastal overtopping

Autores: Almar R, Ranasinghe R, Bergsma EWJ, Athanasiou P., et al
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 12, 2021, Página(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24008-9

Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions

Autores: Daniel J. Befort, Christopher H. O'Reilly, Antje Weisheimer
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 47/18, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087900

Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

Autores: Carmo-Costa, T., R. Bilbao, P. Ortega, A. Teles-Machado and E. Dutra
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 58, 2022, Página(s) 1311-1328, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05962-y

Regional modeling of surface mass balance on the Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands (49ºS, 69ºE)

Autores: Verfaillie, D., Favier, V., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., Agosta, C. & Jomelli, V.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 53, 2019, Página(s) 5909-5925, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04904-z

Benefits and added value of convection-permitting climate modeling over Fenno-Scandinavia

Autores: Petter Lind, Danijel Belušić, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Oskar Landgren, David Lindstedt, Dominic Matte, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Erika Toivonen, Fuxing Wang
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 55/7-8, 2020, Página(s) 1893-1912, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05359-3

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Autores: Christopher O'Reilly; Daniel J. Befort; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; Tim Woollings; Andrew Ballinger; Gabriele C. Hegerl
Publicado en: Communications Earth & Environment, Edición 2, 2021, ISSN 2662-4435
Editor: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7

Atlantic Ocean influence on Middle East summer surface air temperature

Autores: Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Dario Nicolì, Fred Kucharski, Mansour Almazroui, Michael K. Tippett, Alessio Bellucci, Paolo Ruggieri, In-Sik Kang
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0109-1

The impact of the AMV on Eurasian summer hydrological cycle

Autores: Dario Nicolì, Alessio Bellucci, Doroteaciro Iovino, Paolo Ruggieri, Silvio Gualdi
Publicado en: Scientific Reports, Edición 10/1, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-71464-2

Multi-Model Forecast Quality Assessment of CMIP6 Decadal Predictions

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AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting?

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Estimating Regionalized Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Over Europe by Performance-Based Weighting of CORDEX Projections

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Quantifying the role of the large-scale circulation on European summer precipitation change

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Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

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The forced response and decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation: non-stationary and fragile skills

Autores: Christiansen, B., Shuting Yang, and Dominic Matte
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Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Identifying robust bias adjustment methods for European extreme precipitation in a multi-model pseudo-reality setting

Autores: Torben Schmith; Peter Thejll; Peter Berg; Fredrik Boberg; Ole Bøssing Christensen; Bo Christiansen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Marianne Sloth Madsen; Christian Steger
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Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index

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Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems

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Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

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How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

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Toward a European Climate Prediction System

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Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

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Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

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A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

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A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

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Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

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Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

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Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Autores: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin
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Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Autores: Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Soret, Albert
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Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

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Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Autores: Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale
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The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

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Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

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Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

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"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

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Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

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Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

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Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations

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Differences in representation of extreme precipitation events in two high resolution models

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Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

Autores: Lukas Brunner, Carol McSweeney, Andrew P. Ballinger, Daniel J. Befort, Marianna Benassi, Ben Booth, Erika Coppola, Hylke de Vries, Glen Harris, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Geert Lenderink, Jason Lowe, Rita Nogherotto, Chris O’Reilly, Saïd Qasmi, Aurélien Ribes, Paolo Stocchi, Sabine Undorf
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 33/20, 2020, Página(s) 8671-8692, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0953.1

Multi-annual prediction of drought and heat stress to support decision making in the wheat sector

Autores: Solaraju-Murali, B., Gonzalez-Reviriego, N., Caron, L.P., Ceglar, A., Toreti, A., Zampieri, M., Bretonnière, P.A., Samsó Cabré, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J.
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 4(1), 2021, Página(s) 1-9, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: MDPI
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00189-4

Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences

Autores: Julien Boé; Samuel Somot; Lola Corre; Pierre Nabat
Publicado en: "Climate Dynamics, Springer Verlag, 2020, 54 (5-6), pp.2981-3002. ⟨10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1⟩", Edición 1, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1

Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill

Autores: Christopher H. O'Reilly; Antje Weisheimer; Antje Weisheimer; David MacLeod; Daniel J. Befort; Tim Palmer
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020, ISSN 1477-870X
Editor: RMS
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3890

Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles

Autores: Bo Christiansen
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 33/21, 2020, Página(s) 9447-9465, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0186.1

How extreme could the near term evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall be?

Autores: Jain S, Scaife AA
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 17, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4655

Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Autores: Gillett NP, Kirchmeier-Young M, Ribes A, et al
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 11, 2021, Página(s) 207-212, ISSN 1758-678X
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9

Non-Hydrostatic Regcm4 (Regcm4-NH): Evaluation of Precipitation Statistics at the Convection-Permitting Scale over Different Domains

Autores: Stocchi, Paolo; Pichelli, Emanuela; Torres Alavez, Jose Abraham; Coppola, Erika; Giuliani, Graziano; Giorgi, Filippo
Publicado en: Atmosphere, 13 (6), Edición 1, 2022, ISSN 2073-4433
Editor: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos13060861

Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

Autores: Kahraman, A., Kendon, E., Chan, S., & Fowler, H.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48 (13), 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl092361

Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation.

Autores: Evin G, Hingray B, Blanchet J, et al
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 32, 2019, Página(s) 2423-2440, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
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Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures

Autores: Müller, W. A., Borchert, L. & Ghosh, R.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 47, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086043

Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022

Autores: Médus, E., Thomassen, E. D., Belušić, D., Lind, P., Berg, P., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Dobler, A., Kjellström, E., Olsson, J., Yang, W. (2022). Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Edición 22, 2022, Página(s) 693-711, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022

Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

Autores: Weisheimer A, Befort DJ, MacLeod D, et al
Publicado en: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Edición 101, 2020, Página(s) e1413-e1426, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0019.1

Climate models permit convection at much coarser resolutions than previously considered.

Autores: Jesus Vergara-Temprado; Nikolina Ban; Davide Panosetti; Linda Schlemmer; Christoph Schär
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 33, 2020, Página(s) 1915-1933, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0286.1

Towards an objective assessment of climate multi-model ensembles - a case study: the Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling region

Autores: Mignot J, Mejia C, Sorror C, et al
Publicado en: Geoscience Model Development, Edición 13, 2020, Página(s) 2723-2742, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-2723-2020

Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

Autores: Tokarska, K. B., Stolpe, M. B., Sippel, S., Fischer, E. M., Smith, C. J., Lehner, F. and Knutti, R.
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición 6(12), 2020, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: AAAS (American Association for the Advances of Science)
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549

Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

Autores: Peter Burek, Yusuke Satoh, Taher Kahil, Ting Tang, Peter Greve, Mikhail Smilovic, Luca Guillaumot, Fang Zhao, Yoshihide Wada
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 13/7, 2020, Página(s) 3267-3298, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020

Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective

Autores: Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L. & Shaffrey, L.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 46, 2019, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084402

Projections and uncertainties of sandy beach loss due to sea level rise at the European scale

Autores: Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Ranasinghe, R., and Kwadijk, J.
Publicado en: EGU General Assembly 2020, Edición EGU2020-10149, 2020, ISSN 1866-3508
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10149

Users cognitive load: A key aspect to successfully communicate visual climate information

Autores: Luz Calvo; Isadora Christel; Marta Terrado; Fernando M. Cucchietti; Mario Pérez-Montoro
Publicado en: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, Página(s) 1-16, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0166.1

Evaluation and Expected Changes of Summer Precipitation at Convection Permitting Scale with COSMO-CLM over Alpine Space

Autores: Marianna Adinolfi, Mario Raffa, Alfredo Reder, Paola Mercogliano
Publicado en: Atmosphere, Edición 12/1, 2021, Página(s) 54, ISSN 2073-4433
Editor: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12010054

Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions

Autores: Befort, D. J., O'Reilly, C. H., & Weisheimer, A.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090059

How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections

Autores: Tamzin Palmer; Ben B. B. Booth; Carol McSweeney
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 16, 2021, Página(s) 1-15, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504579.1

Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model

Autores: Lenderink G, De Vries H, Fowler HJ, et al
Publicado en: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Edición 379, 2021, ISSN 0080-4614
Editor: The Royal Society Publishing
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0544

Making climate projections conditional on historical observations

Autores: Aurélien Ribes, Saïd Qasmi, Nathan P. Gillett
Publicado en: Science Advances, Edición 7/4, 2021, Página(s) eabc0671, ISSN 2375-2548
Editor: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc0671

Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Autores: Yadu Pokhrel; Farshid Felfelani; Yusuke Satoh; Yusuke Satoh; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Anne Gädeke; Dieter Gerten; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Hyungjun Kim; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Junguo Liu; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Jacob Schewe; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tobias Stacke; Camelia Eliza Telteu; Wim Thiery; Wim Thiery; Ted Veldkamp; Ted Vel
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, Edición 11, 2021, Página(s) 226-333, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

Towards useful decadal climate services

Autores: Dunstone, N., Lockwood, J., Solaraju-Murali, B., Reinhardt, K., Tsartsali, E. E., Athanasiadis, P. J., Bellucci, A., Brookshaw, A., Caron, L., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Früh, B., González-Reviriego, N., Gualdi, S., Hermanson, L., Materia, S., Nicodemou, A., Nicolì, D., Pankatz, K., Paxian, A., Scaife, A., Smith, D., & Thornton, H. E.
Publicado en: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0190.1

Selecting regional climate scenarios for impact modelling studies

Autores: Wilcke, R. A. I., Bärring, L.
Publicado en: Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016, ISSN 1364-8152
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.01.002

Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe

Autores: Giovanni Sgubin; Didier Swingedouw; Leonard Borchert; Matthew Menary; Thomas Noël; Harilaos Loukos; Juliette Mignot
Publicado en: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03318273, Edición 57, 2021, Página(s) 3245-3263, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Autores: O'Reilly, C.H., D.J. Befort, and A. Weisheimer
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 2190-4979
Editor: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

Tailoring circulation type classification outcomes

Autores: Felicitas Hansen; Danijel Belušić
Publicado en: International Journal of Climatology, Edición 1, 2021, ISSN 0899-8418
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7171

The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

Autores: Grinsted A, Christensen JH
Publicado en: Ocean Science, Edición 17, 2021, Página(s) 181-186, ISSN 1812-0792
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-17-181-2021

Internal variability versus multi‐physics uncertainty in a regional climate model

Autores: Alvaro Lavin‐Gullon, Jesus Fernandez, Sophie Bastin, Rita M. Cardoso, Lluis Fita, Theodore M. Giannaros, Klaus Goergen, Jose Manuel Gutierrez, Stergios Kartsios, Eleni Katragkou, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Pedro M. M. Soares, Stefan Sobolowski, Kirsten Warrach‐Sagi
Publicado en: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 0899-8418
Editor: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6717

Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections

Autores: Hegerl, G., A. Ballinger, B. Booth, L.F. Borchert, L. Brunner, M. Donat, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Harris, J. Lowe, R. Mahmood, J. Mignot, J. Murphy, D. Swingedouw and A. Weisheimer
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, 2021, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2021.678109

A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

Autores: James M. Ciarlo`, Erika Coppola, Adriano Fantini, Filippo Giorgi, XueJie Gao, Yao Tong, Russell H. Glazer, Jose Abraham Torres Alavez, Taleena Sines, Emanuela Pichelli, Francesca Raffaele, Sushant Das, Melissa Bukovsky, Moetasim Ashfaq, Eun-Soon Im, Thanh Nguyen-Xuan, Claas Teichmann, Armelle Remedio, Thomas Remke, Katharina Bülow, Torsten Weber, Lars Buntemeyer, Kevin Sieck, Diana Rechid, Daniel
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05400-5

Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity

Autores: Estella-Perez V, Mignot J, Guilyardi E, et al
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 55, 2020, Página(s) 975-992, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05304-4

Assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of the added value on precipitation of convection-permitting simulation over the Iberian Peninsula using the RegIPSL regional earth system mode

Autores: Kumar-Shahi N., Polcher J., Bastin S., Pennel R., Fita L.
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 59, 2022, Página(s) 471-498, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06138-y

The aridity index under global warming

Autores: Greve, P., Roderick, M. L., Ukkola, A. M., Wada, Y.
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 14(12), 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5046

Linking Ocean Forcing and Atmospheric Interactions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI‐ESM1.2

Autores: J. Oelsmann, L. Borchert, R. Hand, J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 47/10, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087259

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific

Autores: Daniel J. Befort; Kevin I. Hodges; Antje Weisheimer
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 35, 2022, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0041.1

Decadal Predictions of the Probability of Occurrence for Warm Summer Temperature Extremes

Autores: Borchert, Leonard F.; Pohlmann, Holger; Baehr, Johanna; Neddermann, Nele‐Charlotte; Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura; Müller, Wolfgang A.
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 46, 2019, Página(s) 14042-14051, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085385

WMO global annual to decadal climate update: a prediction for 2021–25

Autores: Leon Hermanson; Doug Smith; Melissa Seabrook; Roberto Bilbao; Francisco Doblas-Reyes; Etienne Tourigny; Vladimir Lapin; Viatcheslav V. Kharin; William J. Merryfield; Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso; Panos Athanasiadis; Dario Nicoli; Silvio Gualdi; Nick Dunstone; Rosie Eade; Adam Scaife; Mark Collier; Terence O’Kane; Vassili Kitsios; Paul Sandery; Klaus Pankatz; Barbara Früh; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang M
Publicado en: American Meteorological Society, 2022, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1

Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence

Autores: Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, Reto Knutti
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 11/4, 2020, Página(s) 995-1012, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020

The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions

Autores: Terrado, M., Lledó, L., Bojovic, D., St Clair, A. L., Soret, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Manzanas, R., San-Martín, D. & Christel, I.
Publicado en: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Edición 100, 2019, Página(s) 1909-1921, ISSN 0003-0007
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0214.1

Using statistical downscaling to assess skill of decadal predictions

Autores: Benestad, R., Caron, L.-P., Parding, K., Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez Llorente, J. M., Mezghani, A. & Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
Publicado en: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology & Oceanography, Edición 02806495, 2019, ISSN 0280-6495
Editor: Swedish Geophysical Society: Munksgaard
DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2019.1652882

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

Autores: Meehl GA, Teng H, Smith D, et al
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06272-7

Extreme windstorms and sting jets in convection-permitting climate simulations over Europe

Autores: Manning C, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, et al
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 58, 2022, Página(s) 2387-2404, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06011-4

The influence of ENSO events on the stratospheric QBO in a multi-model ensemble

Autores: Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Christiansen, Bo; Yang, Shuting
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición 54, 2020, Página(s) 2561–2575, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05131-7

Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0

Autores: Simon Michel; Didier Swingedouw; Marie Chavent; Pablo Ortega; Juliette Mignot; Myriam Khodri
Publicado en: Geoscientific Model Development, Edición 13, 2020, Página(s) 841-858, ISSN 1991-9603
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020

Extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius-Clapeyron rate over Europe

Autores: Vergara-Temprado, J., N. Ban and C. Schär
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 48, 2021, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089506

Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) hindcast skill in the North Atlantic

Autores: Carvalho-Oliveira J, Borchert LF, Duchez A, et al
Publicado en: Climate & Weather Dynamics, Edición 2, 2021, Página(s) 739-757, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Springer Science & Business Media
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

Regional Climate Model emulator based on deep learning: concept and first evaluation of a novel hybrid downscaling approach

Autores: Doury A., Somot S., Gadat S., Ribes A., Corre L.
Publicado en: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015
Editor: Research Square LLC
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-725819/v1

Impact_du_changement_climatique_sur_les_precipitations_extremes_dans_le_sud-est_de_la_France_apport_des_modeles_resolvant_la_convection_profonde (PhD Thesis, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse III)

Autores: Fumière Q.
Publicado en: Hal Open Science, 2019, ISSN 2267-828x
Editor: CCSD

Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

Autores: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Publicado en: Earth System Science Data, Edición 11/4, 2019, Página(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516
Editor: not applicable
DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019

Evaluation of the near-surface wind field over the Adriatic region: local wind characteristics in the convection-permitting model ensemble

Autores: Belušić Vozila, A., Danijel Belušić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak et al
Publicado en: Research Square, 2022, ISSN 2693-5015
Editor: Research Square Company
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1622667/v1

Long range predictability of the length of day and extratropical surface climate

Autores: Scaife, A. A., Hermanson, L., van Niekerk, A., Andrews, M., Baldwin, M. P., Belcher S., Bett, P., Comer, R. E., Dunstone N. J., Geen R., Hardiman S. C., Ineson S., Knight J., Nie Y., Ren H.-L., and Smith D.
Publicado en: EGU General Assembly 2021, 2021
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-191

Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Autores: Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Edición Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019
Editor: European Geophysical Union

Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Autores: Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Edición Vol. 21, 2019
Editor: European Geophysical Union

Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note

Autores: Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan; Doblas Reyes, Francisco
Publicado en: Universitat Politècnica Commons. Global access to UPC knowledge, 2018
Editor: Universitat Politècnica

How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Autores: Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
Publicado en: 2020
Editor: EU

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