Descripción del proyecto
Nuevas reconstrucciones paleoambientales
Durante el último período interglacial, entre 129 000 y 116 000 años antes del presente, el mundo era alrededor de 1 °C más cálido en comparación con los valores preindustriales, y entre 3 y 5 °C más cálido en los polos. Se trata de un patrón parecido a las predicciones efectuadas para los próximos siglos. Según las previsiones, el aumento del nivel mundial del mar seguirá siendo uno de los mayores retos ecológicos durante los siglos venideros. En este contexto, el proyecto financiado con fondos europeos RISeR elaborará nuevas reconstrucciones paleoambientales de los cambios relacionados con el nivel del mar durante el último período interglacial en el noroeste de Europa. Todo ello permitirá ofrecer acotaciones sobre la frecuencia y periodicidad de los cambios durante dicho período. El proyecto también explorará las contribuciones de las capas de hielo de Groenlandia y de la Antártida al aumento del nivel del mar en todo el mundo.
Objetivo
Global sea-level rise is one of our greatest environmental challenges and is predicted to continue for hundreds of years, even if global greenhouse-gas emissions are stopped immediately. However, the range, rates and responses to sea-level rise beyond 2100 are poorly understood. Current models that project sea-level rise centuries into the future have large uncertainties because the recent observations upon which they are based, encompass too limited a range of climate variability. Therefore, it is crucial to turn to the geological record where there are large-scale changes in climate. Global temperatures during the Last Interglacial were ~1oC warmer than pre-industrial values and 3-5oC warmer at the poles (a pattern similar to that predicted in the coming centuries), and global sea level was 6-9 m higher, far above that experienced in human memory.
Through the RISeR project, I will lead a step-change advance in our understanding of the magnitude, rates and drivers of sea-level change during the Last Interglacial, to inform both global and regional sea-level projections beyond 2100. Specifically I will:
1. Develop new palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Last Interglacial sea-level change from northwest Europe;
2. Provide the first ever chronological constraints on the timing, and therefore rates, of relative sea-level change that occurred in northwest Europe during the Last Interglacial;
3. Use state-of-the-art numerical modelling to distinguish the relative contributions of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets to global sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial;
4. Provide estimates of the land areas and exposed populations in northwest Europe at risk of inundation by long-term (2100+) sea-level rise, providing high-end scenarios critical for coastal-risk management practice.
These ambitious objectives will result in a state-of-the-art integrated study of the most appropriate analogue for a critical global environmental challenge; future sea-level rise.
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitución de acogida
LS2 9JT Leeds
Reino Unido