Description du projet
Nouvelles reconstructions paléoenvironnementales
Durant la dernière période interglaciaire, il y a entre 129 000 et 116 000 ans, la température au niveau mondial était à peu près supérieure de 1°C par rapport aux valeurs observées à l’ère préindustrielle et il y avait 3-5°C de plus aux pôles. Il s’agit d’un schéma similaire à celui prédit pour les siècles à venir. L’élévation du niveau global de la mer est l’un des plus grands défis écologiques prévus pour les siècles à venir. Dans ce contexte, le projet RISeR financé par l’UE développera de nouvelles reconstructions paléoenvironnementales des changements observés au niveau des mers apparus dans le nord-ouest de l’Europe au cours de la dernière période interglaciaire. Cela permettra de fournir des contraintes concernant l’échéance et les taux de ces changements au cours de cette période. Le projet étudiera aussi la contribution des calottes glaciaires du Groenland et de l’Antarctique à l’élévation du niveau de la mer.
Objectif
Global sea-level rise is one of our greatest environmental challenges and is predicted to continue for hundreds of years, even if global greenhouse-gas emissions are stopped immediately. However, the range, rates and responses to sea-level rise beyond 2100 are poorly understood. Current models that project sea-level rise centuries into the future have large uncertainties because the recent observations upon which they are based, encompass too limited a range of climate variability. Therefore, it is crucial to turn to the geological record where there are large-scale changes in climate. Global temperatures during the Last Interglacial were ~1oC warmer than pre-industrial values and 3-5oC warmer at the poles (a pattern similar to that predicted in the coming centuries), and global sea level was 6-9 m higher, far above that experienced in human memory.
Through the RISeR project, I will lead a step-change advance in our understanding of the magnitude, rates and drivers of sea-level change during the Last Interglacial, to inform both global and regional sea-level projections beyond 2100. Specifically I will:
1. Develop new palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Last Interglacial sea-level change from northwest Europe;
2. Provide the first ever chronological constraints on the timing, and therefore rates, of relative sea-level change that occurred in northwest Europe during the Last Interglacial;
3. Use state-of-the-art numerical modelling to distinguish the relative contributions of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets to global sea-level rise during the Last Interglacial;
4. Provide estimates of the land areas and exposed populations in northwest Europe at risk of inundation by long-term (2100+) sea-level rise, providing high-end scenarios critical for coastal-risk management practice.
These ambitious objectives will result in a state-of-the-art integrated study of the most appropriate analogue for a critical global environmental challenge; future sea-level rise.
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
Thème(s)
Appel à propositions
(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre) ERC-2018-STG
Voir d’autres projets de cet appelRégime de financement
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitution d’accueil
LS2 9JT Leeds
Royaume-Uni