Descripción del proyecto
Predicción de las consecuencias del cambio climático sobre la biodiversidad
Existe un vínculo entre el cambio climático y la biodiversidad. La distribución de las especies ha cambiado debido al cambio climático. Los actuales escenarios predicen una erosión acelerada de la biodiversidad con el cambio climático. Sin embargo, estas predicciones siguen presentando un elevado grado de incertidumbre debido a que todavía se pasan por alto la multiplicidad de efectos del cambio climático a todos los niveles biológicos, desde genes hasta ecosistemas, y sus interdependencias. En este contexto, el equipo del proyecto ECOFEED, financiado por el Consejo Europeo de Investigación, abordará dichas incertidumbres. En concreto, investigará retroalimentaciones eco-evolutivas dependientes del clima empleando un experimento de seis años sobre el calentamiento real que reproduce las condiciones naturales, de forma que permita la presencia de dinámicas tanto evolutivas como ecológicas en un escenario anticipado de cambio climático.
Objetivo
Current scenarios predict an accelerated biodiversity erosion with climate change. However, uncertainties in predictions remain large because the multitude of climate change effects from genes to ecosystems and their interdependencies are still overlooked. This incomplete vision hampers the development of effective mitigation strategies to sustain biodiversity.
Climate change can directly modify the phenotype and performance of individuals through phenotypic plasticity and evolution on contemporary time scales. The microevolution of keystone species can spread throughout the whole ecological network due to changes in species interactions and further translate into an altered ecosystem functioning. Conversely, direct impacts on communities and ecosystems can have ripple effects on the phenotypic distribution and evolution of all species of ecological networks.
Climate-driven changes at individual and population levels can shape community composition and ecosystem functioning, and vice versa, altering eco-evolutionary feedbacks, namely the reciprocal interactions between ecological and evolutionary processes. Climate-driven ecological and evolutionary dynamics are yet often investigated separately. The role of eco-evolutionary feedbacks in climate change impacts on biological systems therefore hinges on little concrete empirical evidence contrasting with a profuse theoretical development.
ECOFEED will investigate climate-dependent eco-evolutionary feedbacks using a 6 year-long realistic warming experiment reproducing natural conditions and thus allowing for both evolutionary and ecological dynamics to occur under a predicted climate change scenario. Complementary laboratory experiments will quantify reciprocal impacts of climate-dependent evolutionary and ecological changes on each other. ECOFEED will provide unprecedented insights on the eco-evolutionary feedbacks in a future climate and will ultimately help refine predictions on the future of biodiversity.
Ámbito científico
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantInstitución de acogida
75794 Paris
Francia