Descripción del proyecto
Escenarios innovadores para la evaluación simultánea de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible
Los informes sobre los resultados de los ambiciosos Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS), adoptados en 2015, presentan un gran reto científico, ya que se han descubierto varias relaciones complejas entre ellos. Además, la información científica sobre cómo alcanzar de forma simultánea un conjunto tan diverso de objetivos es limitada. El proyecto PICASSO, financiado con fondos europeos, desarrollará un conjunto innovador de escenarios basados en modelos que examinan los esfuerzos necesarios para lograr de forma simultánea una parte de los principales ODS de aquí a 2050. Los objetivos tratan sobre problemas clave de sostenibilidad, tales como la producción de alimentos, la energía y la utilización del suelo, el cambio climático y la escasez de agua. El proyecto pretende identificar los procesos de transformación necesarios para alcanzar estos objetivos, compromisos y sinergias importantes, así como las relaciones entre los diferentes niveles geográficos.
Objetivo
In 2015, nearly all nations agreed on a set of ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure environment protection and human development. Accounting for the coherence of the overall set of goals presents a major scientific challenge as there are many complex relationships and feedbacks between them and across various scales (local to global, near- and long-term). However, in fact very little scientific information exists on how to achieve such a diverse set of goals simultaneously. In the proposed research, I will address the scientific gap by developing a novel set of model-based scenarios that explore the efforts required to achieve a set of key sustainable development targets by 2050 simultaneously (i.e. using a backcasting approach). These targets are based on the SDGs and other international agreements, and cover key sustainability issues such as food production, energy and land use, climate change, water scarcity, and nutrient cycles.
The purpose of the analysis is to identify 1) transformation processes needed for achieving these targets (including timing), 2) key synergies and trade-offs among sustainability issues, and 3) the relationships between different geographic scales. In PICASSO, I will use the integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 to develop such scenarios and explore the key linkages. For this purpose, important model improvements will be made to better cover the feedbacks and response options relevant for the SDG targets. Additional project activities will cover uncertainty analysis, and questions related to implementation (the role of different actors in these transitions). Stakeholder interaction is vital and will be formalised in a project forum with key stakeholders that will meet on a regular basis. The scenarios may thus be used to implement and evaluate the SDGs, and they will also result in new scientific understanding of integrated response strategies that can be used by other researchers in more detailed analysis.
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantInstitución de acogida
3584 CS Utrecht
Países Bajos