Tipping Points in the Earth System

Risultati finali

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Statistical toolbox to analyse tipping elements in proxy records

A statistical toolbox, written in the programming language Python, will be published on the open-access code platform GitHub, and linked to the TiPES website. This toolbox will allow to analyse records of tipping elements in past climates in terms of time series on common, absolute time scales, whilst keeping track of the associated uncertainties (Task 1.2).

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Software package for linear response operators in climate models

A software package will be developed to construct linear response operators in different climate models. Based on our analysis of various models of intermediate to more sophisticated complexity (PlaSIM, Bern3D, HadCM3, EC-Earth, CESM) we will make available the analysis tools for extracting the linear response operator from climate models (Task 4.1).

Pubblicazioni

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Autori: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Pubblicato in: Geosci. Model Dev., Numero 6, 2023, Pagina/e 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Autori: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Autori: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Pubblicato in: Phys. Rev. E, Numero 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Editore: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Autori: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autori: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Autori: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero 369/6509, 2020, Pagina/e 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Autori: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, Pagina/e 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Autori: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Pubblicato in: Environ. Res. Lett., Numero 17, 9, 2022, Pagina/e 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Autori: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, 2023, Pagina/e 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Autori: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 35(7), 2022, Pagina/e 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Autori: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Autori: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 11/2, 2020, Pagina/e 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Autori: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Autori: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 3, 2022, Pagina/e 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Autori: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 10/10, 2020, Pagina/e 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Autori: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 13, 2023, Pagina/e 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Autori: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numero 179/5-6, 2020, Pagina/e 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Editore: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Autori: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Autori: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numero 116/48, 2019, Pagina/e 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Autori: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Pubblicato in: New Journal of Physics, Numero 22/7, 2020, Pagina/e 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Autori: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 14.3, 2023, Pagina/e 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Editore: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Autori: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Pubblicato in: Potential Analysis, Numero 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Editore: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Autori: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Pubblicato in: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Pagina/e 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Editore: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Autori: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 18149324, 2022, Pagina/e 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Autori: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Pubblicato in: Chaos, Numero 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Editore: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Autori: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Pubblicato in: Crossref, Numero 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Editore: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Autori: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Pubblicato in: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Numero 279, 2020, Pagina/e 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Autori: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research letters, Numero 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Autori: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 17, 2023, Pagina/e 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 54/1-2, 2020, Pagina/e 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Autori: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the past, Numero 18, 6, 2022, Pagina/e 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Autori: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 15/9, 2020, Pagina/e 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Autori: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Pubblicato in: Nature Machine Intelligence, Numero 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Autori: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 14, 2023, Pagina/e 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Autori: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Pubblicato in: Journal of Functional Programming, Numero 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Editore: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Autori: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Autori: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 16/1, 2020, Pagina/e 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Autori: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 33/16, 2020, Pagina/e 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Autori: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 16,11, 2023, Pagina/e 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Autori: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Pubblicato in: geophysical Research Letters, Numero 50, 14, 2023, Pagina/e e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Autori: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Pubblicato in: New Journal of Physics, Numero 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Autori: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 20,1, 2024, Pagina/e 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Pubblicato in: Nonlin. Processes Geophys., Numero 16077946, 2022, Pagina/e 183-205, ISSN 1607-7946
Editore: Copenicus Gesellschaft
DOI: 10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Autori: Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 7 (31), 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Autori: Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 17/1, 2021, Pagina/e 37-62, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: European geosciences union
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Autori: Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
Pubblicato in: Quaternary Science Reviews, Numero 270, 2021, ISSN 0277-3791
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107177

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Autori: Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 19, 2023, Pagina/e 865–881, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-865-2023

Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Autori: Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 18, 2022, Pagina/e 863-893, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022

On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Autori: Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
Pubblicato in: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, Numero 55.42, 2022, Pagina/e 425002, ISSN 1751-8121
Editore: IOPScience
DOI: 10.1088/1751-8121/ac90fd

"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Autori: Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
Pubblicato in: Nonlinearity, Numero 36.6, 2023, Pagina/e 3238, ISSN 1361-6544
Editore: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37

Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Autori: Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, Numero 8/12, 2022, ISSN 1471-2946
Editore: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0740

The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Autori: Peter Ditelvsen
Pubblicato in: Atmosphere-Ocean, Numero 60:3-4, 2022, Pagina/e 233-244, ISSN 1480-9214
Editore: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2022.2077172

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Autori: Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
Pubblicato in: Environmental research letters, Numero 16, 2021, Pagina/e 074024, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acb

Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Autori: Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 18, 2022, Pagina/e 2021-2043, ISSN 1814-9332
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022

Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Autori: Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, Numero 15/1, 2021, Pagina/e 215-231, ISSN 1994-0424
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-215-2021

Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Autori: Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
Pubblicato in: Climate dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2

Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Autori: Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
Pubblicato in: Oxford open climate change, 2024, Pagina/e kgae004, ISSN 2634-4068
Editore: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004

Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Autori: Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129

Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Autori: Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
Pubblicato in: Global and Planetary change, 2022, ISSN 0921-8181
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103745

Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

Autori: Guido Vettoretti Peter D. Ditlevsen Markus Jochum S. Olander Rasmussen
Pubblicato in: Nature Geoscience volume, Numero 17520908, 2022, Pagina/e 300-306, ISSN 1752-0908
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-022-00920-7

The contribution of melt ponds to enhanced Arctic sea-ice melt during the Last Interglacial

Autori: Diamond, R Sime, LC Schroeder, D Guarino, M-V
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere, 2021, ISSN 1994-0416
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Glacial Abrupt Climate Change as a Multiscale Phenomenon Resulting from Monostable Excitable Dynamics

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Rough basin boundaries in high dimension: Can we classify them experimentally?

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Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany

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Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science

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Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis

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Homogenization of Fully-Coupled Chaotic Fast-Slow Systems via Intermediate Stochastic Regularization

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Network dynamics on graphops

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Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

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Event synchrony measures for functional climate network analysis: A case study on South American rainfall dynamics

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Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

Autori: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Valerio Lucarini, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
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Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows

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Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

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Sample Paths Estimates for Stochastic Fast-Slow Systems Driven by Fractional Brownian Motion

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Limited Retreat of the Wilkes Basin Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

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Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies?

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Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

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Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics

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Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns

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Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6

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The physics of climate variability and climate change

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Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view

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Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

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Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions

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A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

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Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models

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A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests

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Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit

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Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age

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Identifying the Mechanisms of DO-scale Oscillations in a Gcm: a Salt Oscillator Triggered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet

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Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP

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Noise-driven topological changes in chaotic dynamics

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Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model

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Intermittent phase dynamics of non-autonomous oscillators through time-varying phase

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How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America

Autori: Peter Good, Niklas Boers, Chris A. Boulton, Jason A. Lowe, Ingo Richter
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Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

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Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later

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Physical measures of asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems

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Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

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Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity

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Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Autori: Davide Faranda, Tommaso Alberti, Maxence Arutkin, Valerio Lembo, Valerio Lucarini
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A universal route to explosive phenomena.

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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

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Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records

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Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

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Modeling the marine chromium cycle: new constraints on global-scale processes

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Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Autori: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Pubblicato in: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numero 38, 6, 2023, Pagina/e e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Editore: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1029/2022pa004600

Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Pubblicato in: Nonlinearity, Numero 33/9, 2020, Pagina/e R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ab86cc

Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Autori: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Pubblicato in: Nature communications, Numero 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3

Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Autori: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Numero 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Autori: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Pubblicato in: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Numero 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Autori: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past, Numero 19, 2023, Pagina/e 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-915-2023

The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Autori: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Pubblicato in: Sci Rep, Numero 13, 2023, Pagina/e 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-30592-1

Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Autori: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18348

Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Autori: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Pubblicato in: ArXiv, Numero [prerint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Autori: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Autori: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Pubblicato in: EGUSphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1773

Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Autori: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Pubblicato in: arXiV, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Autori: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Autori: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Autori: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Pubblicato in: Climate of the Past discussions, Numero [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2496

Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Autori: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Pubblicato in: EGUSphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2690

Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Autori: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Autori: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Pubblicato in: SSRN, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4658035

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autori: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Pubblicato in: Erath system Dynamics, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589

A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Autori: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Autori: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Autori: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Pubblicato in: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Numero [preprint], 2024
Editore: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3870378/v1

Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Autori: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Autori: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.12693

Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Autori: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: arXiv, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.06833

Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Autori: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Pubblicato in: 2022
Editore: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820683

Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Autori: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Pubblicato in: ESS Open Archive, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Authorea.com
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.168839598.85584521/v1

Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Autori: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Pubblicato in: EGUsphere, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2735

Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Autori: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Research Square, Numero [preprint], 2023
Editore: https://www.researchsquare.com/
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3377545/v1

A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Autori: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Pubblicato in: 2022
Editore: TiPES
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.6820605

On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Autori: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Pubblicato in: The Cryosphere Discuss. [preprint], Numero in review, 2022, ISSN 1994-0440
Editore: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-2022-97

Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Autori: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Pubblicato in: Climateof the Past Discussions, Numero [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Editore: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-2023-76

Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Autori: Chris A. Boulton
Pubblicato in: Global Change Biology, Numero 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Editore: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15936

A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Autori: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Pubblicato in: Erath's Future, Numero 11, 4, 2023, Pagina/e e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: John Wiley & Sons
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef003369

Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Autori: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Pubblicato in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numero 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2023.134043

Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Autori: Anna von der Heydt
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero 377, 6601, 2022, Pagina/e 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abq6542

Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Autori: Michael Ghil
Pubblicato in: PNAS, Numero 120 (39), 2023, Pagina/e e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2311575120

Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Autori: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Pubblicato in: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Numero vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Editore: Springer, Cham.
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-01129-0_7

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Autori: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Pubblicato in: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Numero 38, 2020, Pagina/e 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Editore: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-38669-6_1

Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Autori: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Pubblicato in: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Pagina/e 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Editore: Springer, Cham
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

An ice-core perspective

Autori: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Pubblicato in: Abrupt Climate Change, Numero 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Editore: Strandberg publishing

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