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Low-carbon society: an enhanced modelling tool for the transition to sustainability

Risultati finali

Findings of existing data review and compilation of final database for the Environmental module

"This deliverable comprises the data quality control, compilation of metadata and fulfilment of data requirements for the Environmental module. The Deliverable will contain also information on the database structure (indicatively, region, pav, id, topic, type of variable, units, sources, links and licenses, last source update, date collection and data period, reliability index, comments), the data sources that were considered the most suitable in each case, links and licences, the units used, the data collection date, the reliability of the data and additional comments if necessary. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 2.2. Compilation of data "", ""Task 2.3. Data quality check "" and ""Task 2.4. Fulfilment of data requirements from Commission""."

Findings of existing data review and compilation of final database for the Demographic & Social system module

This deliverable comprises data quality control the compilation of metadata process and the fulfilment of data requirements by the Commission for the Demographic and Social system module The deliverable will also contain information on the database structure indicatively region pav id topic type of variable units sources links and licenses last source update date collection and data period reliability index comments the data sources that were considered the most suitable in each case links and licenses the units used the data collection date the reliability of the data and additional comments if necessary This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 22 Compilation of data Task 23 Data quality check and Task 24 Fulfilment of data requirements from Commission

Findings of existing data review and compilation of final database for the Technological and Biophysical sytem module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the data quality control, compilation of metadata and fulfilment of data requirements for the Technological and Biophysical module. The Deliverable will also contain information on the database structure (indicatively, region, pav, id, topic, type of variable, units, sources, links and licenses, last source update, date collection and data period, reliability index, comments), the data sources that were considered the most suitable in each case, links and licences, the units used, the data collection date, the reliability of the data and additional comments if necessary. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 2.2. Compilation of data"", ""Task 2.3. Data quality check "" and ""Task 2.4. Fulfilment of data requirements from Commission""."

Project poster

"This deliverable is a poster illustrating the project’s main objectives and results. It is linked to ""Task 10.3 Setting up and maintaining the project communication tools""."

Findings of existing data review and compilation of final database for the Economic & Financial module

"This deliverable comprises data quality control, the compilation of metadata process and the fulfilment of data requirements by the Commission for modelling the Economic & financial module. The deliverable will also contain information on the database structure (indicatively, region, pav, id, topic, type of variable, units, sources, links and licenses, last source update, date collection and data period, reliability index, comments), the data sources that were considered the most suitable in each case, links and licenses, the units used, the data collection date, the reliability of the data and additional comments if necessary. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 2.2. Compilation of data "", ""Task 2.3. Data quality check "" and ""Task 2.4. Fulfilment of data requirements from Commission""."

Scientific Advisory Board Terms of Reference and list of board members.

"This deliverable reports the constitution and management activities of the Scientific Advisory Board. It partially includes the work carried out under ""Task 11.3 SAB and Expert forum""."

Firms/Production sub-module

This deliverable comprises a description of the sectorial analysis of firms behaviour based on microdata and the representation of technological change in production with the dynamization of coefficients in IO tables It summarises the work carried out in Task 42 Upgrade the FirmsProduction submodule

General model of demand and supply of relevant materials for energy and transportation technologies

This deliverable comprises the description of the general module of demand and supply of relevant materials for energy and transportation technologies and its implementation in the 36 models (World, 7 world regions and EU-28). It summarises the work carried out in Task 7.1. Modelling of demand and supply of relevant materials for energy and transportation technologies.

Review of information on IAMs.

This deliverable comprises the review of the information about IAMs, their features and functionalities and additional (project-) relevant information. This report will summarize the results of Task 3.1 and will be available for download on the project website.

Features and functionalities selected for implementation in the LOCOMOTION set of models.

Deliverable documenting the ranking methodology stakeholder survey results ranking criterions including criterions that result from stakeholder expectations ranking results in form of a prioritized list of features and functionalities list of selected model features to be implemented in the LOCOMOTION set of models descriptions of related implementation approaches in state of the art IAMs This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 32 Ranking of features and functionalities and Task 33 Selection of features and functionalities

Modelling social and demographic impacts of energy transitions

This deliverable comprises the description of the module Society and Population with the module and documentation about assumptions and approach developed This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 53 Modelling of social and demographic impacts of energy transitions

Water use module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the water-use sub-module and its implementation in the 36 models (World, 7 world regions and EU-28). It summarises the work carried out in ""Task 6.2. Development of a water module""."

Labour market sub-module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the labour market sub-module. A new labour module including employment, unemployment, skills and gender perspectives will be included in LOCOMOTION. These variables will dynamically influence the model, regarding its relationship with salaries and, as a result, households’ consumption. The full integration within the whole model, will allow the assessment of the energy and environmental implications of changes in the structure of wages or in the working conditions. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 4.5. A new Labour sub-module"". "

Policy measures and objectives selection and formulation.

This deliverable comprises the selection and recommendation of policy measures technical and nontechnical will be implemented in the model after hierarchization and identification of those with more potential under different criteria eg cost effectiveness GHG abatement potential precautionary principle distributive impact and interaction with other current economic trends such as automation etc In a second stage the main causal relationships as well as other requirements eg data to model the selected set of policy measures will be set in order to implement them in the model cooperation with modelling working packages 47 9 Also the policy objectives from different dimensions environmental economic social etc will be selected for the objective function implementation within the model These policy objectives will be used either as constraints in the optimization either to explain the differences in the manually designed future scenarios For those policy measures and objectives included in the model the relations and interactions will be analysed to qualify their possible synergistic effects or tradeoffs Finally an analysis of the barriers to implement these policies in the real world will be performed as well as of potential solutions to overcome them This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 82 Selection and formulation of main causal relationships of policy measures to the other model variables in analytical form to be included in the model

Module of energy resources availability

"This deliverable comprises the description of the module of energy resources and its implementation in the 36 models (World, 7 world regions and EU-28). It summariese the work carried out in ""Task 7.2. Modelling of energy resources availability""."

International trade sub-module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the international trade sub-module. LOCOMOTION will improve international trade by a more specific regional disaggregation stated in WP2. Since intermediate exports and imports rely upon fixed technical coefficients, endogenous evolution of technical coefficients will allow assessing different trade openness scenarios. Moreover, we will estimate Armington elasticities using information from the latest release of WIOD. It summarises the work carried out in ""Task 4.6. Upgrade international trade modelling and re-estimation with latest data"". "

Reporting of outcomes from stakeholder engagement

This deliverable comprises the description of the stakeholder sessions with discussion about the perceived social drivers and costsimpacts of energy transition It summarises the work carried out in Task 52 Stakeholders Engagement

Review of Policy options to drive societies towards sustainability.

"This deliverable comprises the description of an extensive review of the state-of-the art of technical and non-technical policy measures to drive societies towards sustainability will be performed. The literature review will include policy measures being applied/proposed in countries/regions (emphasis in EU members), applied in models (e.g. WORLD6, GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE) (cooperation with WP3), and those not currently applied neither in the models nor in the realpolitik (scientific literature review). This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 8.1. Review of policy measures""."

Map of relevant fora for the project at EU and MS level.

Identification of the main stakeholders to co-involve and forums in which the project could be disseminated and communicated. This deliverable summarises Task 10.1 Identification of main stakeholders, communication channels and forums linked to energy, climate and economic transition.

Models of Energy technologies

"This deliverable comprises the description of the: Modelling of energy technologies infrastructure of production and transportation. Learning technological curves. Modelling of final energy fuels. Modelling of the allocation of energy. It summarises the work carried out in ""Task 7.3. Modelling of energy technologies""."

Review of social and demographic indicators/impacts of energy transitions.

"This deliverable comprises the description of the current practices in the use of social and demographic indicators to build IAMs. It summarises ""Task 5.1 Review of social and demographic indicators and impacts of energy transitions""."

Climate change impacts and adaptations in the economic system

This deliverable comprises the description of the climate change feedbacks on the economic system Although the most common approach in IAMs is to evaluate climate change as an overall impact on the economy LOCOMOTION will consider it at the sectoral level The basic idea is that economic feedbacks from climate change are concentrated in certain sectors although they spill over the whole economy through supply chains The objective of modelling this part is to take into account the full chain of induced feedbacksThis deliverable includes the work made in the Task 47 Endogenous climate change impacts and adaptation of the economic system

Government sub-module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the link of the main macroeconomic magnitudes of the government (output, intermediate consumption, wages, government consumption, investment, etc.) to the “General government expenditure by function”. It includes the work made in the ""Task 4.3. A new Government sub-module by function”. "

Land-use module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the land-use sub-module and its implementation in the 36 models (World, 7 world regions and EU-28). This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 6.1. Development of a land-use module""."

Financial sub-module

"This deliverable comprises the description of the financial sub-module. MEDEAS upgrading will include a financial module, which will be able to capture financial flows in a consistent way. By integrating a financial module, LOCOMOTION will benefit from a more realistic view of the economy’s behaviour, capturing potential capabilities to invest and also systemic instabilities. Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) methodology will be applied, which approach is to account consistently for all monetary flows between agents and sectors across the economy (households, financial and non-financial corporations, and government). Therefore, the stock-flow and feedback-rich structure of system dynamics naturally matches with SFC features. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 4.4. A new Financial sub-module"". "

Household/Consumption sub-module

This deliverable comprises a description of the householdconsumption submodule of LOCOMOTION Methodology used includes a microsimulation with more than 200000 households representative of the EU population and classified according to different sociodemographic characteristics and regions NUTS2 level and also the link of the economic monetary consumption functions to the bottomup energy module and introducing behavioural change It is the result of the Task 41 Upgrade the householdConsumption submodule

Climate change impacts and adaptation module

This deliverable comprises the description of climate change impacts and adaptation module with the quantification of climate change impacts in biophysical terms It summarises the work carried out in Task 63 Climate change impacts and adaptation

Modelling of variability in intermittent renewables, EROI, and Energy intensity

This deliverable comprises the description of final energy intensities EROI and intermittence in renewables modelling Final energy intensities are going to be modelled and estimated for each economic sector 5x56 relationships These intensities will be a function of technologies improvements and technologies substitution in cooperation with WP4 Modelling of the dynamic and endogenous EROI for all energy fuels and technologies For renewable energies EROIst will be modelled as function of the quality of the geographical resource Computation of the dynamic EROI of the whole energy system in coordination with WP4 This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 74 Managing variability in intermittent renewables Wind solar PV and hydro

Dissemination and Communication Plan.

"This deliverable comprises the yearly updated Dissemination and communication plan (months 12, 24, 36 and 45). It includes the work carried out in ""Task 10.2 Development of project communication and dissemination plan""."

Report of the common modeling framework

"This deliverable comprises the development of the common modelling framework to the different modules composing the model, with links between modules, bridge variables, and methodological consistency. It summarises the work carried out in ""Task 9.1. Module coordination and integration""."

Shared database and Open DBMS

This deliverable includes the development of the shared database for the Consortium and the openaccess Database Management System on the website It will also include a report with the description of the process for the development of the database structure and the web database management system the technical description and the source code Only D27 will include the actual data stored in the database and the database interface so that the data can be queried This deliverable summarises the work carried out in Task 24 Fulfilment of data requirements from Commission Task 25 Database for modelling groups and Task 26 Metadata management

Data Management Plan

"This includes discussing and defining the data requirements considering each module's structure and needs, developing guidelines for naming, metadata and quality assessment, as well as determining how to approve and harmonize the collected data for use in the model and for publishing representatives from the groups in charge of model development. It also includes a description of the security measures that will be implemented to prevent unauthorised access to personal data or the equipment used for processing must be included in the Data Management Plan and a relevant confirmation will be submitted as a deliverable. The Data Management Plan (DMP) will further include an explicit confirmation that the data used in the project is publicly available and can be freely used for the purposes of the project. This deliverable summarises the work carried out in ""Task 2.1 Development of Data Management Plan"". "

Pubblicazioni

Disentangling economic crisis effects from environmental regulation effects: Implications for sustainable development

Autori: Simone Lazzini; Zeila Occhipinti; Angela Parenti; Roberto Verona
Pubblicato in: Business Strategy and the Environment, 10990836, 2021, Page(s) 2332-2353, ISSN 1099-0836
Editore: New York J. Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/bse.2749

Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe

Autori: Alexandros Nikas; Ajay Gambhir; Evelina Trutnevyte; Konstantinos Koasidis; Henrik Lund; Jakob Zinck Thellufsen; D. Mayer; Georg Zachmann; Luis J. de Miguel; N. Ferreras-Alonso; I. Sognnaes; Glen P. Peters; Emanuela Colombo; Mark Howells; Mark Howells; Adam Hawkes; M.A. van den Broek; D. J. van de Ven; Mikel González-Eguino; Alexandros Flamos; Haris Doukas
Pubblicato in: Energy, 03605442, 2021, ISSN 0360-5442
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119153

Coupling circularity performance and climate action: From disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science

Autori: Alexandros Nikas; Georgios Xexakis; Konstantinos Koasidis; José Acosta-Fernández; Iñaki Arto; Alvaro Calzadilla; Teresa Domenech; Ajay Gambhir; Stefan Giljum; Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino; Andrea Herbst; Olga Ivanova; Mariësse A. E. van Sluisveld; Dirk-Jan Van De Ven; Anastasios Karamaneas; Haris Doukas
Pubblicato in: Sustainable Production and Consumption, 23525509, 2021, Page(s) 269-277, ISSN 2352-5509
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2021.12.011

Coupling environmental transition and social prosperity: a scenario-analysis of the Italian case

Autori: A.Cieplinski,S.D’Alessandro, T.Distefano, P.Guarnieri
Pubblicato in: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 0954349X, 2021, Page(s) 265-278, ISSN 0954-349X
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.007

Quantifying the reductions in mortality from air-pollution by cancelling new coal power plants

Autori: Jon Sampedro; Ryna Yiyun Cui; Ryna Yiyun Cui; Haewon McJeon; Haewon McJeon; Steven J. Smith; Nathan E. Hultman; Linlang He; Arijit Sen; Rita Van Dingenen; Ignacio Cazcarro
Pubblicato in: Energy and Climate Change, 26662787, 2021, ISSN 2666-2787
Editore: Energy and Climate Change
DOI: 10.1016/j.egycc.2020.100023

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Autori: Jon Sampedro; Jon Sampedro; Stephanie Waldhoff; Dirk-Jan van de Ven; Guillermo Pardo; Rita Van Dingenen; Iñaki Arto; Agustín del Prado; María José Sanz
Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Environment, 13522310, 2020, ISSN 1352-2310
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117538

Analysis of the variable renewable energy in the Spanish power system based on kernel probabilistic distributions

Autori: Parrado-Hernando, G., Frechoso-Escudero, F., Miguel-Gonzalez, L.
Pubblicato in: DYNA Ingenieria e Industria, 22542833, 2021, Page(s) 179-185, ISSN 2254-2833
Editore: Federación de Asociaciones de Ingenieros Industriales de España
DOI: 10.6036/9892

Flexibility index and decreasing the costs in energy systems with high share of renewable energy

Autori: Antun Pfeifer; Luka Herc; Ilija Batas Bjelić; Neven Duić
Pubblicato in: Energy Conversion and Management, 01968904, 2021, ISSN 0196-8904
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114258

Energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling for the EU energy and post-COVID-19 transitions

Autori: Ignacio Cazcarro; Diego García-Gusano; Diego Iribarren; Pedro Linares; José Carlos Romero; Pablo Arocena; Iñaki Arto; Santacruz Banacloche; Yolanda Lechón; Luis J. de Miguel; Jorge Zafrilla; Luis Antonio López; Raquel Langarita; María-Ángeles Cadarso
Pubblicato in: The Science of the Total Environment, 00489697, 2022, ISSN 0048-9697
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150329

A new accounting framework for assessing forest footprint of nations

Autori: Arto, I.; Cazcarro, I.; Garmendia, E.; Ruiz, I.; Sanz, M.J.
Pubblicato in: Ecological Economics, 09218009, 2022, ISSN 0921-8009
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107337

Sub-national water–food–labour nexus in Colombia

Autori: T. Distefano, C.A. Saldarriaga Isaza, E. Muñoz and T. Builes
Pubblicato in: Journal of Cleaner Production, 09596526, 2022, Page(s) 130138, ISSN 0959-6526
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.130138

Analysis of the material requirements of global electrical mobility

Autori: Daniel Pulido Sanchez, Iñigo Capellan Perez, Margarita Mediavilla Pascual, Carlos De Castro Carranza, Fernando A. Frechoso Escudero
Pubblicato in: DYNA Ingenieria e Industria, 22542833, 2021, Page(s) 207-213, ISSN 2254-2833
Editore: Federación de Asociaciones de Ingenieros Industriales de España
DOI: 10.6036/9893

Linking multisectoral economic models and consumption surveys for the European Union

Autori: Ignacio Cazcarro; Antonio F. Amores; Iñaki Arto; Kurt Kratena
Pubblicato in: Economic Systems Research, 09535314, 2022, Page(s) 22-40, ISSN 0953-5314
Editore: Carfax Publishing Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1856044

National Energy and Climate Planning in Serbia: From Lagging Behind to an Ambitious EU Candidate?

Autori: I. BatasBijelić, N. Rajaković
Pubblicato in: Int J Sustain Energy Plan Manag, 22462929, 2021, Page(s) 47–60, ISSN 2246-2929
Editore: Aalborg University Press
DOI: 10.5278/ijsepm.6300

The limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth paradigm

Autori: Ignacio de Blas; Margarita Mediavilla; Iñigo Capellán-Pérez; Carmen Duce
Pubblicato in: Energy Strategy Reviews, 2211467X, 2020, ISSN 2211-467X
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100543

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy.

Autori: Dirk-Jan van de Ven; Iñigo Capellán-Pérez; Iñaki Arto; Ignacio Cazcarro; Ignacio Cazcarro; Carlos de Castro; Pralit Patel; Mikel González-Eguino
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021), 20452322, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-82042-5

Modelling Global Nickel Mining, Supply, Recycling, Stocks-in-Use and Price Under Different Resources and Demand Assumptions for 1850–2200

Autori: A. H. Olafsdottir, H. U. Sverdrup
Pubblicato in: Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration, 25243470, 2021, Page(s) 819–840, ISSN 2524-3470
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s42461-020-00370-y

Carbon footprint, municipality size and rurality in Spain: Inequality and carbon taxation

Autori: Manuel Tomás; Luis Antonio López; Fabio Monsalve
Pubblicato in: Journal of Cleaner Production, 09596526, 2020, ISSN 0959-6526
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121798

Double accounting in energy footprint and related assessments: How common is it and what are the consequences?

Autori: Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño; Iñaki Arto; José Acosta-Fernández
Pubblicato in: Energy, 03605442, 2021, ISSN 0360-5442
Editore: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.119891

How uncertainties are tackled in multi-disciplinary science? A review of integrated assessments under global change

Autori: A.V. Pastor, D.C.S. Vieira, F.H. Soudijn, O.Y. Edelenbosch
Pubblicato in: Catena, 03418162, 2020, Page(s) 104305, ISSN 0341-8162
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2020.104600

MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints

Autori: Iñigo Capellán-Pérez; Ignacio de Blas; Jaime Nieto; Carlos de Castro; Luis J. de Miguel; Óscar Carpintero; Margarita Mediavilla; Luis Fernando Lobejón; Noelia Ferreras-Alonso; Paula Rodrigo; Fernando Frechoso; David Álvarez-Antelo
Pubblicato in: Energy and Environmental Science, 17545692, 2020, Page(s) 986-1017, ISSN 1754-5692
Editore: Royal Society of Chemistry
DOI: 10.1039/c9ee02627d

Standard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power Technologies

Autori: Iñigo Capellán-Pérez; Carlos de Castro
Pubblicato in: Energies, Vol 13, Iss 3036, p 3036 (2020), 1, 2020, Page(s) 1-42, ISSN 1996-1073
Editore: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
DOI: 10.3390/en13123036

Flexibility Options to Tackle Intermittency in the Energy Systems with High Share of Renewable Energy

Autori: Antun Pfeifer, Luka HErc, Ilija Batas Bijelic, Neven Duić
Pubblicato in: Book of abstracts / 15th conference on sustainable development of energy, water and environment systems, September 1-5, 2020, Cologne, Germany : 15th SDEWES Conference, Cologne 2020, 2020, 207-207, 18477178, 2020, ISSN 1847-7178
Editore: SDEWES Center