For the Apollo project (EU- 827200) , the ESP SAS Team performed a commercial and market feasibility, to validate the economics and financial viability.
ESP SAS reviewed 33 Urban Air Mobility Projects Worldwide with +135 persons interviewed and more than 10 market studies between 2014 and 2018 cross-checked.
First findings of the study are that the total addressable market (TAM) for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is predicted to be around $30b by 2027/2030 for Freight & Passengers drones.
It is estimated that $1b is roughly for Passengers drones and $29b for freight and industry. Of this about 24% are currently expected to use electric turbines (electric ducted fans) which would represent an addressable market of $7.2b of Freight & Passengers drones to be equipped with electric turbines (electric ducted fans).
The market at the time of writing focuses heavily on news and eye-catching designs rather than engineering reality or B2B use-cases.
So entrepreneurs responded to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) projects with 47% for the Air-Taxi for passengers’ drones, while only 16% focuses on Freight & Industry and the Air-Bike projects are 16% of the total 33 projects reviewed worldwide.
Propulsion Technology choices are: 43% of projects or flying demonstrators rely on distributed propulsion using fixed-pitch propellers, and 24% are developing technology based around electric ducted fans (EDF) (fixed pitch too) also known as electric turbines, and 21% of the reviewed projects want to use distributed caged-propellers (shrouded-prop) (a mix of fixed and variable pitch). The global scattering of projects per countries is:
49% in USA, Europe 36% (with UK for 15%, France for 12%, Germany for 6%, Hungary 3%) and 6% in Russia.
In term of flight design type (Wing-VTOL, Multi-copter, and custom) over the 33 reviewed worldwide projects: 58% of project are multi-rotor-craft (using either edf, caged-prop, or propellers); 30 % of the projects use Wing-VTOL airplanes design -most of them for passengers drones with 2 Wing-VTOL projects for defense (Valkyrie and Aurora); other projects are looking at VTOL-Jet (XTI) or Air-bikes or fly-board (Zapata).
With 58%, it indicates clearly that low velocity propulsion system used for multi-copter type design may prevail in the short term.
Hence EDF for slow speed – static thrust - might be the best avenue for EDF manufacturers.
European manufacturers may face direct competition of Chinese producers of electric multi-propellers systems and Chinese drone makers.
The total addressable market for electric turbines seems to be higher within the industry and freight segment rather than passengers’ drones multi-copter for the short term.
We think that EDF/e-turbines will probably become mandatory for the civilian Urban Air mobility market in the future.
Major Roadblock is technological: the 500WH per Kg storage capacity of batteries which is expected to be reached by 2030 and will allow electric rotor-craft to fly through the threshold of 30 minutes and may even reach up to 1 hr.
Then the next roadblock will be insurances and airspace regulations. Insurers and Airspace regulators may provide soon frameworks for Freight Drones applications (see the amazon projects and google pilot projects for deliveries) which makes us believe Freight & Industrial Drones applications will pick up market shares first due to these regulatory issues.
CO2 emission and pollutants will drastically be reduced by using small and large drones as the LLNL study demonstrates (publication: Nature).
Keywords: UAM, urban air mobility, electric ducted fan, electric aviation, distributed propulsion, Passenger drone, Freight drone, electric turbine.