Descripción del proyecto
El impacto del comportamiento de los agricultores en el cambio climático
El cambio climático puede reducir la productividad agrícola. Debido a que el aumento de las temperaturas, las escasas lluvias, las inundaciones y las sequías se están convirtiendo en fenómenos habituales, abordar esta cuestión resulta crucial. Las respuestas de los agricultores individuales son decisivas a la hora de reducir la vulnerabilidad y asegurar la durabilidad de los sistemas de riego multifactorial. El proyecto MODFaBe, financiado con fondos europeos, propone modelar el comportamiento de los agricultores, así como informar a los actores del mercado sobre la eficiencia de los métodos alternativos de intervención. De este modo, el proyecto evaluará el comportamiento de los agricultores en el distrito de riego de Muzza en Milán, al norte de Italia. Además, investigará hasta qué punto el modelo de comportamiento puede hacer que la agricultura sea más sostenible, flexible y adaptable al cambio climático.
Objetivo
Agriculture is one of the sectors most affected by climate change, especially in lower latitude areas, were climate change will result in increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. Water and food nexus, often embedded in seemingly endless ecological, social and political interactions, are context-dependent, socially constructed and technically uncertain. Modelling techniques have been recognized, also in social sciences, as effective computational techniques to simulate social influence processes in human-nature systems from interactions within community of individual agents. The aim of the proposal is to reduce the vulnerability and improve the resilience of multifunctional irrigation systems to climate change scenarios by modelling individual farmer’ behaviour and informing managers and decision-makers about the effectiveness of different types of interventions. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and evidence-based analysis from social learning process (survey sample, interviews, statistical analyses, behavioural modelling simulations, artificial intelligence), insights are collected on how individual farmer and key stakeholders behave with respect to climate change adaptation in Coupled Human Natural Systems (CHNS), such as hydrosocial systems (e.g. multifunctional irrigation systems). A key question in today climate change adaptation research will be addressed: Can behaviour modelling help farmers to promote actions and anticipate decisions to adapt to climate change and become more sustainable and resilient? The assessment of farmer’ behavioural on climate change adaptation measures will be conducted on the Muzza irrigation district, located southeast of the city of Milan (Northern Italy). Modelling human behaviour can be used as a safe laboratory for policy experimentation, testing the effectiveness of strategies and policy measures on climate change.
Ámbito científico
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligence
- engineering and technologycivil engineeringwater engineeringirrigation
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinador
20133 Milano
Italia