Description du projet
Le comportement des agriculteurs a un impact sur le changement climatique
Le changement climatique peut réduire la productivité agricole. Alors que la hausse des températures, la diminution des précipitations, les inondations et les sécheresses deviennent des phénomènes fréquents, il s’avère vital de traiter le problème. Les réactions individuelles des agriculteurs sont déterminantes pour réduire la vulnérabilité et assurer la durabilité des systèmes d’irrigation multifactoriels. Le projet MODFaBe, financé par l’UE, propose de modéliser le comportement des agriculteurs et d’informer les acteurs du marché sur l’efficacité de méthodes d’intervention alternatives. Il évaluera le comportement des agriculteurs dans le district d’irrigation de Muzza à Milan, dans le nord de l’Italie. Le projet examinera également dans quelle mesure la modélisation du comportement peut rendre l’agriculture plus durable, plus flexible et plus adaptable au changement climatique.
Objectif
Agriculture is one of the sectors most affected by climate change, especially in lower latitude areas, were climate change will result in increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. Water and food nexus, often embedded in seemingly endless ecological, social and political interactions, are context-dependent, socially constructed and technically uncertain. Modelling techniques have been recognized, also in social sciences, as effective computational techniques to simulate social influence processes in human-nature systems from interactions within community of individual agents. The aim of the proposal is to reduce the vulnerability and improve the resilience of multifunctional irrigation systems to climate change scenarios by modelling individual farmer’ behaviour and informing managers and decision-makers about the effectiveness of different types of interventions. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and evidence-based analysis from social learning process (survey sample, interviews, statistical analyses, behavioural modelling simulations, artificial intelligence), insights are collected on how individual farmer and key stakeholders behave with respect to climate change adaptation in Coupled Human Natural Systems (CHNS), such as hydrosocial systems (e.g. multifunctional irrigation systems). A key question in today climate change adaptation research will be addressed: Can behaviour modelling help farmers to promote actions and anticipate decisions to adapt to climate change and become more sustainable and resilient? The assessment of farmer’ behavioural on climate change adaptation measures will be conducted on the Muzza irrigation district, located southeast of the city of Milan (Northern Italy). Modelling human behaviour can be used as a safe laboratory for policy experimentation, testing the effectiveness of strategies and policy measures on climate change.
Champ scientifique
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligence
- engineering and technologycivil engineeringwater engineeringirrigation
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinateur
20133 Milano
Italie