The work proposed in the project was divided in 3 work packages: (WP1) Assessment of coral life-history parameters at Virgin Islands, (WP2) Assessment of long-term viability of coral populations to predict phase-shifts in composition of future coral reefs, and (WP3) Assessment of long-term viability of coral populations to predict phaseshifts in composition of future coral reefs. Due to COVID-19 emergency situation, the Fellow had been forced to develop several contingency plans during the first 2 years. In the WP1, the field work in the Caribbean was replaced with (i) experiments to study the thermal stress effects on octocoral larvae in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as (ii) writing a review manuscript on octocoral reproduction. Results obtained from the experimental study have been published in Global Change Biology Journal (IF 13.211) and the review manuscript is in preparation and will be submitted shortly in Coral Reefs Journal (IF 4.362). Moreover, the Fellow is currently working on data treat of lipidomic analyses of larvae obtained in the experiment and the results will be submitted in the following months. In the frame of the contingency plan, WP2 has been developed in its totality during the second year. Fragments of coral colonies have been collected in Florida Keys, instead of Virgin Islands. Following the experimental design proposed, coral fragments from different species were maintained under contrasted treatments of global change scenarios, and data on coral survival and growth every other week, as well as photosynthesis and feeding rates, density of symbiotic algae in coral tissue, respiration, and reproductive output of each coral fragments were collected after more than half year of incubation. Additionally, samples for lipidomic were fixed and preserved for analysis. Finally, she also measured coral photosynthetic efficiency with PAM-diving, and she acquired and treated images for the developed of 3D imaging reconstructions of each coral fragment used in the experiment, to provide detailed normalization of the physiological rates measured to the coral size and surface. The data obtained suggest that Muricea elongata could be the most resistant species due to principally its high heterotrophic inputs. However, its persistence could become compromised by reproductive failure. Porites astreoides may cope the ocean warming affects provided continuous events of food pulses, whereas the ocean warming effects could cause drastic consequences on Gorgonia ventalina populations. In the frame of this WP, one-two manuscripts are being processed and will be submitted shortly. Due to the novelty and complexity to understand and interpret the results from lipidomic analyses, the results will be separately submitted. Finally, in the frame of WP3, matrix Models and IPMs were constructed for the three studied species in the WP2, and, due to the contingency plans developed in the WP1, two of the most abundant Mediterranean octocoral species has been added. After constructed the models, the effects of thermal stress and food availability assessed in the experimental study of WP2 and the experimental data obtained in WP1, respectively, were integrated in the models to predict coral population dynamics under ocean warming. However, to fully integrate the results obtained on the sublethal effects driven by ocean warming in the models are being a big challenge, since the models only recognize mortality/survival, growth and recruitment. In order to be able to include these data about sublethal effects, the fellow is collaborating with Dr. Capdevila from the UB, who has extensive expertise in demographic models. Finally, the projections obtained for each studied species (currently without sublethal effects data) suggested similar conclusions that obtained in the frame of WP2, demonstrating that the models are well constructed. However, due to the models do not include the sublethal effects of ocean warming the outputs of these models could be overestimate. In this WP, two manuscripts are planned, one for the Mediterranean octocorals and one for the studied species in the WP2. The articles in preparation will be submitted to journals that the UB has reached open access agreements ensuring EU policy. All the scientific publications (will) include the reference to EU funding in the acknowledge section.
