Historical Grounding of Migration Decisions of the People at Environmental Risks

This MSC Action dealt with the project title “Historical Grounding of Environmental Migration Decisions of People at Risks – (HoMe)”. It aimed to provide insights on historical reasons for migration decisions of people at environmental risks. The objectives are:
(i) To develop a framework that considers the historical grounding of the social, political, and environmental variables and sub-variables in predicting the migration decisions of people at environmental risks using Ostrom’s framework for socio-ecological systems.
(ii) To model how social, political, and environmental changes over time influence migration decisions of people at environmental risks using agent-based modeling (ABM).
(iii) To explore migration decisions by simulating different scenarios of the future evolution of the historical grounding referred to social, political, and environmental conditions employing the scenario approach to test to which extent the model allows projection of future migration decisions
Such an analysis fits within the broader strategic vision of international cooperation of the European Union. It contributes to global adaptation policy frameworks, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (e.g. Goal 11, 13.1 & 16) , European Agenda on Migration, and the European Union’s commitment to international peace and security, development, prosperity, and human rights, and to the reduction of the climate-induced risks in developing countries.
It was hosted by two excellent, highly experienced, and internationally renowned institutes: the University of Colorado Boulder (outbound) and Technische Universität Dresden (inbound).

Due to travel restrictions, the outgoing phase was started as planned by TU Dresden. The first three months (May – July 2020) were revised as a secondment at TU Dresden, and from August 2020 to January 2022 the out-going phase was remotely conducted from TU Dresden. However, the researcher travel to CU Boulder in February 2022 (at the very last quarter of the outgoing stage), and had the opportunity to work in person with colleagues in the host institution. Such changes in the outgoing phase have caused few deviations from the work and training as planned.
The objective of SPW1 was to develop a conceptual framework and empirical investigation guideline. An empirical investigation guideline has been developed, which has gotten approval from the host institution's Institutional Review Board (IRB). The IRB identification number is Protocol ID 20-0582 approval date of 24-Feb-2021.
The first manuscript proposed a conceptual framework that integrates the intergenerational perspective of environmental non-migration. The fellow conducted a systematic review, submitted the manuscript to Population and Environment journal, and received a resubmission decision. Manuscript information is as below:
Mallick, B., Hunter, L., Luebken, U., and Schanze, J. (2022) Environmental Migration and Non-migration: Aspirations, Capabilities, and Learning from History, in Population and Environment, Manuscript ID POEN-D-21-00336.
The collaborative working opportunities with the colleagues of CNH project “Socioecological System Dynamics Related to Livelihood, Human Migration and Landscape Evolution” of the host university resulted in other publications, as listed below:
Best, K., Gilligan, J., Baroud, H., Carrico, A., Donato, K. & Mallick, B. (2022) Applying machine learning to social datasets: a study of migration in southwestern Bangladesh using random forests. Reg Environ Change 22, 52 (2022).
Closely related to the environmental migration study is to work the researcher has done with a Ph.D. student he has been mentoring at the University of Otago, New Zealand. The MSCA fellow has published the following paper with him:
Ghosh, R.C. Orchiston, C. and Mallick, B. (2022) Climate migration studies in the Pacific (CMSP) - A bibliometric analysis, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 4, 100132, ISSN 2666-0490, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsust.2022.100132.
Under the SWP2, the researcher planned to develop: (i) an Agent-based model, (ii) a 4 weeks’ field visit in Bangladesh, (iii) skill training on ABM, and (iv) develop modeling protocols and models of migration decisions at different historical regimes. A manuscript was planned based on the findings derived by ABM on the historical meaning of interactions between the actors and their influence on migration decisions. Because the researcher could not travel to the host country as planned, he could not attend the courses on ABM and other relevant skill development training. However, he has organized a monthly task-based training session on ABM from Prof. Jonathan Gilligan of Vanderbilt University, USA. Besides, the researcher has attended a 4-week course on ABM at TU Dresden during WS 2020-21.
As an outcome of these courses, the researcher has prepared a review manuscript. The detailed information of the manuscript is below:
• Mallick, B., Best, K., Gilligan, J., Hunter, L. and Schanze, J. “Agent-Based Modeling and Historical Dimensions of Environmental Migration Decisions Analysis: A Critical Review”, (in final review by co-authors, and is planned for submission by 15 July 2022).
A preliminary ABM model has been developed. As the researcher could not travel to Bangladesh, the fieldwork was not completed, which is why the researcher did not use any empirical data to validate this model. A manuscript is under preparation, and the information is below:
• “How capability and aspiration influence non-migration decision at individual household despite climate risks – an intergenerational modeling approach to depict livelihood resilience against climate risks” (is planned for submission by November 2022)
The following manuscripts have been drafted and are currently being reviewed and refined by co-authors:
Best, K.B. Carrico, A., Donato, K., Mallick, B. “Place attachment, environmental perceptions, and migration in southwestern Bangladesh” (in review, Translational Issues in Psychological Science)
Naser, M., Mallick, B., Priodarshini, R., Huq, S. “Policy challenges and responses to environmental non-migration”, (in review, Migration and Development)
Mallick. B., Best, K., Carrico, A., Ghosh, T., Priodarshini, R., Sultana, Z., Samanta, G. “How do migration decisions and drivers differ against extreme environmental events?” (in review, Environmental Hazards)

Going beyond the state-of-the-art, the HoMe project has developed for the first time an analytical framework for examining the historical grounding of migration decisions – ‘intergenerational perspectives of migration decision’. It has developed a pilot model of how changes in the aspiration and capability conditions over time influence migration decisions using agent-based modeling. The results are expected to provide particular insights into the emerging field of environmental non-migration.
After all, this HoMe project significantly impacted the researcher's career, as he was appointed as “An Associate Professor of Climate Change and International Development Studies” at Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and early terminated the project.

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - HoMe (Historical Grounding of Migration Decisions of the People at Environmental Risks)

Diese Seite teilen

Herunterladen