Description du projet
Harmoniser la finance avec la stabilité climatique
Un double défi systémique attend les sociétés européennes. Dans un premier temps, elles devront opter pour un système de production à faible émission de carbone, afin d’atténuer le changement climatique. Elles devront ensuite minimiser les bouleversements économiques et financiers que cette transition pourrait déclencher. Pour atteindre ces objectifs, les systèmes financiers doivent être harmonisés avec les objectifs de stabilité et de transition climatique. C’est pourquoi le projet SMOOTH, financé par l’UE, se penchera sur les obstacles institutionnels et psychologiques aux investissements à faible intensité de carbone, et développera un cadre innovant d’analyse macrofinancière pour étudier les potentiels scénarios de décarbonation. Combinant la macroéconomie climatique, la finance comportementale et l’économie politique, ce cadre analysera les moteurs et les obstacles financiers, ainsi que leurs implications pour la croissance, la stabilité financière, l’emploi, la distribution et la dette privée/publique.
Objectif
The threat of climate change calls for a rapid transition to a low-carbon society. Aligning the financial system with climate stability is a crucial prerequisite for achieving decarbonisation while preserving economic prosperity and societal welfare. However, we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of how the institutional and behavioural features of financial systems may affect the speed and shape of the low-carbon transition. Additionally, the coevolving socioeconomic, financial and environmental repercussions of such a large-scale societal transformation have not yet been systematically analysed. The SMOOTH project will lay the foundations of an innovative macro-financial analytical framework to provide essential insights on the links between financial systems and decarbonisation dynamics. Methodologically, I will introduce a breakthrough by linking macroeconomic analysis with an original evidence-based representation of investment decisions based on forward-looking expectations of transition pathways. In the course of five years, this integrated modelling framework will enable the first comprehensive assessment of the transition financial drivers and obstacles, and their implications for growth, financial stability, employment, private/public debt and functional distribution, with a focus on Europe. Building on this knowledge, a harmonised set of policies aimed at achieving a rapid and smooth transition can be designed. I will go beyond the current state of the art by integrating the analysis of fiscal policies with monetary policies and financial regulation, and investigating their institutional requirements and implications. SMOOTH will create a new interdisciplinary field of research integrating elements from macroeconomic modelling, climate economics, behavioural finance, socio-technical transition theory and political science, lifting the analytical power of transition modelling to a new level and opening up novel avenues for future research.
Champ scientifique
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ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitution d’accueil
40126 Bologna
Italie