Descripción del proyecto
Armonizar la economía con la estabilidad climática
Las sociedades europeas se enfrentan a un desafío sistémico doble. En primer lugar, tendrán que avanzar hacia un sistema productivo hipocarbónico para mitigar el cambio climático. En segundo lugar, deberán reducir al mínimo las perturbaciones económicas y financieras que esta transición podría desencadenar. Para lograr ambos, los sistemas financieros tienen que estar armonizados con la estabilidad climática y los objetivos de transición. Por ello, en el proyecto SMOOTH, financiado con fondos europeos, se profundizará en los obstáculos psicológicos e institucionales a las inversiones hipocarbónicas y se creará un novedoso marco analítico macrofinanciero para estudiar los posibles panoramas de descarbonización. Este marco combinará la macroeconomía climática, la economía conductual y la economía política para analizar los impulsores y obstáculos financieros, así como sus consecuencias para el crecimiento, la estabilidad financiera, el empleo, la distribución y la deuda pública y privada.
Objetivo
The threat of climate change calls for a rapid transition to a low-carbon society. Aligning the financial system with climate stability is a crucial prerequisite for achieving decarbonisation while preserving economic prosperity and societal welfare. However, we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of how the institutional and behavioural features of financial systems may affect the speed and shape of the low-carbon transition. Additionally, the coevolving socioeconomic, financial and environmental repercussions of such a large-scale societal transformation have not yet been systematically analysed. The SMOOTH project will lay the foundations of an innovative macro-financial analytical framework to provide essential insights on the links between financial systems and decarbonisation dynamics. Methodologically, I will introduce a breakthrough by linking macroeconomic analysis with an original evidence-based representation of investment decisions based on forward-looking expectations of transition pathways. In the course of five years, this integrated modelling framework will enable the first comprehensive assessment of the transition financial drivers and obstacles, and their implications for growth, financial stability, employment, private/public debt and functional distribution, with a focus on Europe. Building on this knowledge, a harmonised set of policies aimed at achieving a rapid and smooth transition can be designed. I will go beyond the current state of the art by integrating the analysis of fiscal policies with monetary policies and financial regulation, and investigating their institutional requirements and implications. SMOOTH will create a new interdisciplinary field of research integrating elements from macroeconomic modelling, climate economics, behavioural finance, socio-technical transition theory and political science, lifting the analytical power of transition modelling to a new level and opening up novel avenues for future research.
Ámbito científico
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Régimen de financiación
ERC-STG - Starting GrantInstitución de acogida
40126 Bologna
Italia