Project description
So when’s the next earthquake?
Earthquakes are actually very common occurrences. They occur daily even though few people actually notice because they are phantom tremors (light and occur deeper underground). Only sensitive instruments can record them. What about predicting quakes or other destructive natural events like tsunamis. Is this possible? The EU-funded PERSISMO project may soon find out. It is building a physics-based Virtual Earthquake Simulator which will make seismic and tsunamic hazard estimates on fault networks. Specifically, it will create a framework that will include all known physical contributions to dynamic fracturing. The aim will be to unify a never-achieved range of spatiotemporal scales, from meters to hundreds of kilometres, seconds to millenniums.
Objective
Quantum leaps in observations have recently upended our classical view of earthquakes & tsunamis and have demonstrated that our understanding of these destructive natural events is not unified and still too limited to perform reliable predictions. Fortunately, catastrophic events remain relatively rare. Yet this scarcity also implies that their fine scale and long-term dynamics can only be studied in detail through numerical simulations.
The goal of PERSISMO is to build a physics based Virtual Earthquake Simulator to make seismic and tsunami hazard estimates on fault networks. Indeed, the modern view emanating from observations is that fault networks continuously release stored energy over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. With this philosophy in mind, we have been developing simulation tools to capture the behaviour of these fault networks and our recent work has demonstrated that these networks indeed control the dominant portion of the continuous energy release, whatever the time and length scales considered.
Within PERSISMO, we will build a physics-based framework, which will include all known physical contributions to dynamic fracturing. This will unify a never achieved range of spatiotemporal scales, from meters to hundreds of kilometres, seconds to millenniums. Using available data and catalogues, our results will be validated along natural fault networks to capture slow and fast seismic energy release. Building on this, we will develop a Machine Learning based framework to run thousands of ensemble and future hazard scenarios on a given fault network. Only then, we might be able to make reliable predictions about their behaviour in the future.
Our project to build a physics-driven Virtual Earthquake Simulator is interdisciplinary by nature, as it must combine expertise in mechanics, earth sciences and computation. In the long-term, our simulator will have the potential to become key in helping decision makers on possible natural hazard scenarios.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences geology seismology
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences physical geography natural disasters
- natural sciences computer and information sciences artificial intelligence machine learning
- natural sciences computer and information sciences software software applications simulation software
- humanities philosophy, ethics and religion philosophy
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
ERC-COG - Consolidator Grant
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2019-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
75794 PARIS
France
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.