Project description DEENESFRITPL New space weather warning system A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth's magnetosphere. It occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth. Predicting these storms is vital. This is the objective of the EU-funded PAGER project, which has assembled a team of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the United States. The project will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments. This will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a threat. The most advanced codes will be used, adapted to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. Show the project objective Hide the project objective Objective The PAGER project will provide space weather predictions that will be initiated from observations on the Sun and will predict radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current will allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes will allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. We will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we will use the most advanced codes that currently exist. Codes outside of Europe will be transferred to operation in Europe, such as components of the state-of-the-art Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). We will adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and will perform uncertainty quantifications. The project will include a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. Consultations with stakeholders will be central for the project. We will reach out to scientific, industry and government stakeholders and will tailor our products for the stakeholder’s needs and requirements. Dissemination of the results will play a central role in the project. Our team includes leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US. Fields of science natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyengineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringastronautical engineeringspacecraftengineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringsatellite technologynatural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomygalactic astronomysolar physics Keywords forecast Kp index deep dielectric charging satellite anomalies ring current radiation belts magnetospheric physics inner magnetosphere surface charging space weather Programme(s) H2020-EU.2.1.6. - INDUSTRIAL LEADERSHIP - Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies – Space Main Programme H2020-EU.2.1.6.4. - Enabling European research in support of international space partnerships H2020-EU.2.1.6.3. - Enabling exploitation of space data Topic(s) SU-SPACE-22-SEC-2019 - Space Weather Call for proposal H2020-SPACE-2018-2020 See other projects for this call Sub call H2020-SPACE-2019 Funding Scheme RIA - Research and Innovation action Coordinator HELMHOLTZ ZENTRUM POTSDAM DEUTSCHES GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM GFZ Net EU contribution € 1 135 871,25 Address TELEGRAFENBERG 14473 POTSDAM Germany See on map Region Brandenburg Brandenburg Potsdam Activity type Research Organisations Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 1 135 871,25 Participants (4) Sort alphabetically Sort by Net EU contribution Expand all Collapse all UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK United Kingdom Net EU contribution € 425 531,25 Address KIRBY CORNER ROAD UNIVERSITY HOUSE CV4 8UW COVENTRY See on map Region West Midlands (England) West Midlands Coventry Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 425 531,25 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN THE REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN United States Net EU contribution € 307 356,25 Address SOUTH STREET 3003 1068 46109 1274 Ann Arbor See on map Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 307 356,25 USTAV FYZIKY ATMOSFERY AV CR, v.v.i. Czechia Net EU contribution € 286 875,00 Address BOCNI II 1401 141 31 Praha 4 See on map Region Česko Praha Hlavní město Praha Activity type Research Organisations Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 286 875,00 ARTENUM France Net EU contribution € 197 167,50 Address RUE LOUIS BLANC 24 75010 Paris See on map SME The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed. Yes Region Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Paris Activity type Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Participation in EU R&I programmes Opens in new window HORIZON collaboration network Opens in new window Total cost € 197 167,50
