Descripción del proyecto
Nuevo sistema de alerta de meteorología espacial
Una tormenta geomagnética es una gran perturbación de la magnetosfera de la Tierra. Tiene lugar cuando se produce un intercambio muy eficiente de energía desde el viento solar al entorno espacial que rodea la Tierra. Predecir estas tormentas es crucial. Este es el objetivo del proyecto financiado con fondos europeos PAGER, que ha reunido a un equipo de expertos académicos e industriales punteros en el campo de la meteorología espacial, la física espacial, la modelización de datos empíricos y efectos del entorno espacial en naves espaciales de Europa y los Estados Unidos. El proyecto desarrollará un pronóstico probabilístico de uno a dos días de los entornos de las corrientes de anillo y del cinturón de radiación, lo que permitirá a los operadores de satélites responder a las predicciones que presenten una amenaza. Se utilizarán los códigos más avanzados, adaptados para realizar simulaciones de conjuntos y cuantificaciones de la incertidumbre.
Objetivo
The PAGER project will provide space weather predictions that will be initiated from observations on the Sun and will predict radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current will allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes will allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. We will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we will use the most advanced codes that currently exist. Codes outside of Europe will be transferred to operation in Europe, such as components of the state-of-the-art Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). We will adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and will perform uncertainty quantifications. The project will include a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. Consultations with stakeholders will be central for the project. We will reach out to scientific, industry and government stakeholders and will tailor our products for the stakeholder’s needs and requirements. Dissemination of the results will play a central role in the project. Our team includes leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.
Ámbito científico
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorology
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringastronautical engineeringspacecraft
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringsatellite technology
- natural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomygalactic astronomysolar physics
Palabras clave
Programa(s)
Convocatoria de propuestas
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaConvocatoria de subcontratación
H2020-SPACE-2019
Régimen de financiación
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinador
14473 POTSDAM
Alemania